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AxoGen, Inc. Message Board

friendofthetrend 131 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 23, 2014 5:39 PM Member since: Jan 5, 2001
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  • Reply to

    Will Iteris be in trimble's sights next?

    by chart_watcher99 Dec 23, 2014 8:55 AM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Dec 23, 2014 5:39 PM Flag

    Good to see the M&A in precision AG. Monsanto has done more than a few deals. Here's the latest:

    Monsanto acquires Chicago precision ag start-up
    4:58 AM MST | December 12, 2014 | —Rebecca #$%$

    Monsanto says its agriculture analytics division Climate Corp. (San Francisco) has acquired 640 Labs, an agricultural technology start-up based in Chicago. Financial terms have not been disclosed. Founded in 2013, 640 Labs uses analytics, mobile technologies, and cloud computing to help farmers capture and store in-field data. Climate Corp. expects to announce new products or services from the acquisition in the coming year. Monsanto has been ramping up efforts to expand its offerings in data analytics, which the company calls “agriculture’s next...http://www.chemweek.com/sections/business_finance/usa_americas/Monsanto-acquires-Chicago-precision-ag-start-up_66125.html

    Here's another, not by Monsanto but interesting:
    Apr 13, 2014 Aerial Precision Ag, a manufacturer of agricultural unmanned aerial systems ...has been acquired by RoboFlight Systems Inc., a geo-referenced aerial data company that processes, analyzes, and manages multi-spectral aerial imagery data. RoboFlight Systems collects data from remote sensing UAS as well as their manned aircraft, satellites and any other aerial data collection platforms in order to provide their customers with actionable information in industries including agriculture, livestock, environmental, utility and insurance.http://www.precisionag.com/data/roboflight-systems-acquires-aerial-precision-ag/

    ****************

    There has to be a market value for Iteris's Precision Ag, as a spin off business, but I don't think it's built into the PPS. Once revs come in, in 2015 I'm hoping for an easy double.

  • Reply to

    $10 a share

    by friendofthetrend Dec 10, 2014 8:12 PM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Dec 21, 2014 5:36 PM Flag

    file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/Administrator/My%20Documents/Downloads/ARIS.pdf

  • Reply to

    Did Mitek just give us the "Hockey Stick" numbers?

    by mitk_long Dec 17, 2014 12:10 PM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Dec 20, 2014 6:46 PM Flag

    I don't think we can use the $.08 per check or the run rate would be $47.52 M a year right now ( 33mx18 X$.08). Right now run rate is only $5.5 a Q in revs, $22M a yr., being generated by 33M users..

    What we can say is, 33M checks this yr. generated about $5m revs (see last Quarterly income statement and deduct $.5 M for non MD rev.) That's $.15 per user per Q.

    They project 47M users, so, when that happens, 47X $.15= about $7M. Add back in the non MD and you get about $7.5 M a Quarter.

    They'll be getting about $2.5 operating profit per Q.

    As of the day they get 47M users, the base should be growing anually at the same 42% per year (see my other post in this thread) and the run rate will be $10M operating profit after $5M in operating expense. I figure the legal expense will drop but I still plugged in the $5M in expense because they may want to do more R&D or use cash flow for investments in products and so forth.

    So that's about $.30 a share in MD income plus non MD income and the non MD would be flat- which won't happen- non MD should go up.

    So operating income is about 30cents a share and growing at the revenue growth rate is at least 42%. They have commercial checks and several other products gaining traction so that would be gravy.

    There will be litle churn, since end users will dump their banks if they dump MITK. and MITK is the patent holder and the monopoly on MD. So these will be recurring revenue streams. They only need to keep up with R&D and protect their patents in order to enjoy these streams.

    To further drive growth, the other expenses and investments will be toward new products- also at high margins and really not requiring much more SG&A to develop new products or, to keep the current ones cutting edge.

    It's a pretty nice business model because MD is such a widespread winner, they have a foot in the door for everything else. It's also good right now because they are so close to B/E that additional revs will create shareholder value.

  • friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Dec 19, 2014 12:37 PM Flag

    12-19-2014
    AxoGen, Inc. ( AXGN ) was a big mover last session, as the company saw its shares rise by over 5% on the day. The move came on solid volume too with far more shares changing hands than in a normal session. Although no particular reason has driven the uptrend, the stock has witnessed solid insider buying over the latter half of 2014. Reversing the recent trend of the company, the stock is now trading above the volatile price range of $36.32 to $41.24 in the past one-month time frame.

    None of the estimates for this stock were revised over the past 30 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate however moved higher over the same time frame, suggesting that more solid trading could be ahead for this stock. So make sure to keep an eye on this stock going forward to see if this recent jump can turn into more strength down the road.

    AxoGen currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) while its Earnings ESP is 0.00%.

    Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/axogen-inc-axgn-jumps-545-on-insider-buying-tale-of-the-tape-cm425152#ixzz3MMko9hJe

  • friendofthetrend by friendofthetrend Dec 19, 2014 9:46 AM Flag

    Hoping for some follow up over next few days. Nice if it could hold ground on profit taking off of yesterday's move. Looks like ITI is honing in on $2.00, but we'll see soon enough. Like to see another pop on another big vol. day. GLTA!! 2015 should break new ground and be rewarding for longs, imo.

  • friendofthetrend by friendofthetrend Dec 19, 2014 9:16 AM Flag

    Price going up and Revs going up. That's bottom line, imo. There doesn't seem to be much cities and other governments can do except write letters.

    This week two newly elected state senators and two county executives, all from the Hudson Valley, penned a warning letter to Amphastar CEO Jack Zhang.http://somers.dailyvoice.com/politics/incoming-senators-question-narcan-price-spikes
    **********************

    the amount of money local governments across the country have spent on training their staff to use their specific product so they saw no risk of losing business when they doubled the price because it would be more expensive for cities like NYC to just scrap the Naloxone program entirely.http://www.liberationnews.org/cheap-heroin-unaffordable-solutions/

    *******************
    the World Health Organization (WHO) is recommending that countries significantly expand access to naloxone to help manage opioid overdoses.
    naloxone is currently accessible only through hospitals and ambulance crews, who may not be able to treat overdose patients quickly enough

    The guidelines recommend countries expand naloxone access to people likely to witness an overdose in their community, such as friends, family members, partners of people who use drugs, and social workers,” the article stated.

    http://formularyjournal.modernmedicine.com/formulary-journal/news/who-expand-naloxone-access-help-manage-opioid-overdoses

  • friendofthetrend by friendofthetrend Dec 19, 2014 8:54 AM Flag

    Amphastar Pharmaceuticals’ (NASDAQ:AMPH) lock-up period will expire on Monday, December 22nd. Amphastar Pharmaceuticals had issued 8,000,000 shares in its IPO on June 25th, American Banking and Market News reports. The total size of the offering was $56,000,000 based on an initial share price of $7.00. Shares of the company owned by company insiders and major shareholders will be eligible for trade following the expiration of the lock-up period.

  • Reply to

    Who should Own Farm Data?

    by o08o.ugh64w Dec 18, 2014 11:02 AM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Dec 18, 2014 8:24 PM Flag

    They are lining up partners who will subscribe to the customizeable API and they will offer it to farmers. There will be licensing agreements. There will be a white lable, meaning it can be rebranded. There will be resellers. Agrarian is one such deal, I think.

    A lot of time and effort and money has gone in so my hope is, Iteris KNOWS there's a market unfolding ahead.

    There's always risk. But in 6 mos., price of stock should go up, imo, because subscriptions should start coming in about then or a little after. The market is mainly USA but also worldwide.

    ClearAg is just one iperform product. . Of course their traffic video products are also doing well but a lot of cash has been going into stuff like ClearAg so it'll be nice to get something back..

    http://weatherinthecity.wordpress.com/

  • Reply to

    Did Mitek just give us the "Hockey Stick" numbers?

    by mitk_long Dec 17, 2014 12:10 PM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Dec 18, 2014 6:26 PM Flag

    If they finish around $20M revs in 2014 and $18m was MD, then plug in the 42% they should do $27 M in 2015 and I'd add the other products which are more profitable and gaining traction.

    So they should make a profit for 2015.

    Going foward the 42% should continue as new products gain traction. Not bad. I was hoping for more but that's what seems to be happening.

    Analysts will have to up their estimates based on this 42%, IMO. That's always good for the stock price.

    This all assumesMITK doesn't raise or lower what they charge for MD.

  • Reply to

    Did Mitek just give us the "Hockey Stick" numbers?

    by mitk_long Dec 17, 2014 12:10 PM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Dec 18, 2014 2:14 PM Flag

    Translates to 42% growth (2015 over 2014) for MD. You can take that to the bank. That's the underlying growth being projected by those numbers.

  • Reply to

    Something brewing with CLYC

    by friendofthetrend Dec 16, 2014 10:20 PM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Dec 18, 2014 11:47 AM Flag

    Thanks. CLYC is just one iron in the fire. The product is laying dormant, in a sense, so I'd suggest anyone to try to find older transcripts and management discussions and PRs about it, in light of Capt. Sully's recent commentst.There was a lot of groundwork laid.

    But the Dichro deal and the scintillators is next on my research list.

  • friendofthetrend by friendofthetrend Dec 18, 2014 11:40 AM Flag

    Dec 15, 2014 COOPER CHAD J.
    Director 9,000 Indirect Purchase at $3.75 per share. 33,750

  • Reply to

    The breaking point to keep an eye on is above $1.90

    by manak8208 Dec 18, 2014 11:33 AM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Dec 18, 2014 11:37 AM Flag

    Nice action today. They had good report-- a few head fakes and the trend seems up. Small caps acting better with a lot of golden crosses forming.GLTA

  • Reply to

    Who should Own Farm Data?

    by o08o.ugh64w Dec 18, 2014 11:02 AM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Dec 18, 2014 11:34 AM Flag

    Until you have an aggregation of data and some analytics there's no market value, except a tiny bit myabe to the companies gathering the big data. Once it's aggregated companies like ITI can find ways to monitize it. The fact that there's articles about it suggests it's an upcoming niche.

    In 6 mos. or so I'm hoping for a nice pop in shares. Bring those subscriptions on!! Cash in on the patents and the groundwork laid!!!

  • Reply to

    Big volume coming from somewhere

    by o08o.ugh64w Dec 18, 2014 11:05 AM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Dec 18, 2014 11:26 AM Flag

    I'm hoping this is just the start of the big volume and the pop. Golden Cross forming. Small caps acting better lately. I'm hoping for 700K plus.

  • Reply to

    Something brewing with CLYC

    by friendofthetrend Dec 16, 2014 10:20 PM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Dec 18, 2014 8:44 AM Flag

    Yes. As long as they grow revs and control expenses, as they have been grown and controlled under Capt Sully (pronounced Sooly, as in Sulick) they stay in bus. and the stock does well. As long as they stay in bus. , they keep turning out patents until there are always some about to hit commercial success; so over time, they attract more and more brain power, have more success and are able to reiterate.

    This may be a stock to trade and hold for a decade or so. It could really be something.

    Pretty exciting so, I guess it's got me posting a lot, LOL.

  • Reply to

    Anybody notice todays VOLUME :-)

    by networthdev Dec 17, 2014 2:58 PM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Dec 17, 2014 10:02 PM Flag

    The golden cross is in and it blows through the 300DMA on huge volume. Bullish.

    I think De Novo Ventures II LP, an AXGN beneficial owner, filed to sell 50 K shares on 12/10/14 but the demand for shares seems to be strong, chart looks real good and overall insider activity has been good..

    Good future here. Momentum for the products is starting to accelerate, IMO.

  • Reply to

    Something brewing with CLYC

    by friendofthetrend Dec 16, 2014 10:20 PM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Dec 17, 2014 6:15 PM Flag

    I have more DD but let me just add this for now:

    March 23, 2011

    Dynasil Corporation (NASDAQ GM:DYSL), announced today that its research division, Radiation Monitoring Devices, Inc. (RMD), also of Watertown, was granted additional U.S. patent claims for advances in a detector material capable of responding independently to both neutron and gamma radiation.

    This advancement is of critical national importance because the most commonly available technology for detecting neutrons in Homeland Security applications,specifically neutron detectors based on gaseous Helium-3, is becoming impractical because of serious limitations on the availability of this gas.

    ***
    So, from this, it looks as though theres a Helium shortage and there's a serious need for an upgrade in handheld dectors - not just some of them-- but accross the board in the USA and possibly world wide.

  • Reply to

    Something brewing with CLYC

    by friendofthetrend Dec 16, 2014 10:20 PM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Dec 17, 2014 5:53 PM Flag

    Some DD as promised:

    From CC:"There are certain initiatives which could result in the upgrade and replacement of existing instrumentation technology, which we’re watching closely along with our OEM partners, and could result in increased demand for CLYC.

    So it will be interesting to see how this plays out. I found this:

    SUMMARY: FISCAL YEAR 2015 DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY APPROPRIATIONS BILL
    Subcommittee Mark: June 24, 2014

    The bill provides $306 million for the Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO), $2 million above the request and $21 million above fiscal year 2014. This amount includes $49 million for the purchase of human portable radiation detectors for DHS personnel, $19 million for the Securing the Cities program and $69 million for research and development of next-generation detection technologies.
    http://www.appropriations.senate.gov/news/fy15-dhs-subcommittee-markup-bill-summary

    ***

    The radiation protection industry has witnessed a myriad of technological advancements over the past two decades. It is expected that this trend will continue in the future in a bid to solve present challenges and fill unmet needs of the market. Manufacturers have now been focusing on the development of technologically advanced radiation protection devices and accessories such as hand-held radiation detector

    The key players in the medical protection market are Landauer, Inc. (U.S.), Mirion Technologies, Inc. (U.S.), Radiation Detection Company (U.S.), Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc. (U.S.), AmRay Medical (Ireland),....
    *****

    The DYSL tech is in the Radeye GN.

    From Fisher Scientific:

    The RadEye is the instrument of choice for first
    responders and security monitoring applications
    all over the world.
    Dual gamma/neutron display
    No false neutron alarms for even intense gamma sources
    Ideal for law enforcement officers and first responder

  • Reply to

    Todays news release

    by mitk_long Dec 17, 2014 12:05 PM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Dec 17, 2014 5:23 PM Flag

    MEMORY LANE...some older articles indicate how MD has come a long way ,baby!

    Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
    Retail Payments Risk Forum
    White Paper
    December 2009

    Conflicting views exist on the possible adoption of consumer capture for a broad consumer market base.
    One perspective is that the potential fraud risk makes it unsuitable for the everyday retail customer.

    Despite some differing views, the balance of opinion seems to indicate that consumer capture will not be ubiquitous and will remain a niche offering in the near future.

    file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/Administrator/My%20Documents/Downloads/RPRFwpConsumerRDC.pdf

    2009 NOVEMBER 10

    BofA reports having 3.5 million mobile bankers out of over 53 million customers (including small businesses) for an adoption rate of under 7%.

    Dec 9th, 2009 Celent conducted research in August 2009 among 174 US financial institutions – just prior to USAA’s announcement of its Deposit@Mobile product.


    Celent found that risk and/or compliance concerns are holding banks bank by nearly a 2:1 margin versus any other adoption barrier. All the pre-integration in the world won’t address the lingering systemic risk paranoia around RDC.

    The #2 adoption barrier according to Celent research is low perceived demand for mobile RDC. When banks see adequate demand for the service, the perceived risk associated with solution delivery will be more easily assumed.

    So what’s behind the low perceived demand? Banks mention in interviews that consumers aren’t exactly melting the phone lines with requests for mobile RDC.

    If one of the major four banks decide to offer mobile remote deposit capture, it will likely turn into a domino effect, having the other major banks provide mobile remote deposit too in order to prevent deposit flight. Unless one major financial institution offers mobile remote deposit capture in conjunction with their other mobile banking offerings, mobile RDC will likely continue to remain a niche product.

AXGN.OB
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