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Kopin Corporation Message Board

friendofthetrend 195 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 13, 2014 2:06 PM Member since: Jan 5, 2001
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  • If you read the CC, transcript Brian Thompson says:

    if we move toward unified communications ....we move from several hundred million dollars of addressable market to many billion dollars. That’s critically important for both shareholders, for investors, as well as for the company itself to attack.

    In terms of expansion into additional cloud networking services, we....get inquir[ies] from our multinational clients, particularly multinational enterprise for unified communications, in addition to the broad portfolio of data networking services we have. ..It is something ...very consistent with our cloud networking portfolio, given the fact that traditional voice is a very easy data bit to put on the backbone of our global network. So that would be probably the second major area that will be looked at.

    ***
    UC, shelf registration,way bigger market, golden age of telecom

    IMO, GTT could leverage it's existing sales force to exploit cross selling synergies. GTT could gain a stronger foothold in certain geographical areas and gain perhaps thousands of subscription based customers leads.

    For a view of how the combined model might work check West IP Communication website.There are many smaller players in this area for M&A and it's fast growing.Top 7 players have 60% of market

    From West IP blog:

    This is, truly, a golden age of telecommunications.

    ...a new study that reports that the global UCaaS market will continue on its growth tear, increasing from $2.5B in 2013 to over $7.6B in 2018.

    ...many projections show the sales of UCaaS solutions continuing to grow at a 25%+ CAGR. IT teams supporting smaller to midsized organizations were early adopters because of the economics. But now, adoption is driven far more by how UCaaS can change an organization, to free it to pursue the best process solutions.

  • friendofthetrend by friendofthetrend Apr 11, 2014 6:51 PM Flag

    From Orbcomm web site
    OG2 Mission 1 Update: April 11, 2014
    A few weeks ago, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station’s Range Safety experienced an issue with a primary launch vehicle tracking radar, which delayed the SpaceX Cargo Resupply Services (CRS) Mission originally scheduled for March 30.

    Range Safety has resolved that issue and is prepared to support the SpaceX CRS Mission on April 14. Due to the recent delays with the CRS mission, our new target launch window is May 10-15.

    ***

  • friendofthetrend by friendofthetrend Apr 11, 2014 10:22 AM Flag

    When it fell through the 10DMA,the trajectory of that moving average was just unsustainable. It would have been $30 a share by 6-1-2014. So, next support was found at the 50DMA.

    That trajectory is more sustainable. Right about now it's aiming at $1.90 or so by 6-1-2014. Big difference.

    Actually you don't want too steep a trajectory, imo. It comes along with steep corrections. So the lower prices we've seen today help keep the angle lower. Buyers need an entry point they can feel comfortable with.

  • friendofthetrend by friendofthetrend Apr 11, 2014 9:33 AM Flag

    4/11/2014 @ 7:19AM

    Market watchers predict cloud spending will increase five to seven times, outpacing overall tech spending in the next three years. But cloud adoption will no longer be driven solely by the promise of lower IT costs.

    Companies are looking to invest in the cloud as their innovation platform as a way to achieve new processes and insights to be able to run their business in an entirely new way – not just to do the same old things using a different delivery model

    Platform matters
    Businesses will scrutinize big picture IT environments and drive simplification across all layers of the stack. “They will also look at broader cloud processes and expect these applications to look, perform and interact with each other seamlessly on a common cloud platform that unifies all their applications, data and business processes in a similar user experience.”

    ***

    I think GTT positioned for this. The CIO's they are talking with, more and more, are there to alter the very course and vision of the future for their companies- by utilizing the cloud. But to go forward, a good cloud service provider is essential to making that vision happen.

    Cost is important but it goes beyond that. Innovation is a new driver.

    The cloud apps and innovations are the gold. The "five to seven times" and "overpacing overall tech spending" is a form of gold rush. The shovels, picks and pans are the cloud networking. If you find gold or not- either way- you need the tools.But you better get going soon.

    So there might be some fear driving this too. If you don't have a vision, your competitor will. If you don't have a good cloud network provider, you could become a dinosaur.

    From what I read, for today's CIO, the role is changing. There's a sort of metanoia for CIOs. It's not just about a little network cost savings, keeping the lights on and network traffic happening. It's a lot more.

  • friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Apr 10, 2014 7:24 PM Flag

    http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/most-active.aspx?exchange=AMEX

  • I guess $9's were a good time to buy.

    This tends to confirms that the market is just fine with the shelf registration.

    Markets must like the potential upside to the recently increased $16 target.

  • friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Apr 10, 2014 4:50 PM Flag

    Maybe GTT is fixin' to get into UC.*

    From last CC transcript:

    In terms of expansion into additional cloud networking services, we do get selective inquiry from our multinational clients, particularly multinational enterprise for unified communications[*], in addition to the broad portfolio of data networking services we have. So it is something we have selectively looked at. We do not offer it today, but it is something that we believe would be very consistent with our cloud networking portfolio, given the fact that traditional voice is a very easy data bit to put on the backbone of our global network. So that would be probably the second major area that will be looked at.

    ...if we move toward unified communications, those of you who understand what the industry is we’re in, will recognize we move from several hundred million dollars of addressable market to many billion dollars of opportunity for this company to play in. That’s critically important for both shareholders, for investors, as well as for the company itself to attack.

    *********************
    With an suite of business telecommunications solutions and a new sales team already in place, there could be substantial opportunities to expand revenue through cross-selling services to GTT's existing customer base.

    An acquisition might help them gain a foothold in certain markets and cross sell the IP backbone and cloud networking services..

    This is a good growth market. Cloud hosted, unified communications. The customer gets to save on CapX. Seems a good fit, as long as it's well aligned with their core competencies, though.

  • Reply to

    GTT model,IMO

    by friendofthetrend Apr 6, 2014 1:34 PM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Apr 9, 2014 7:34 PM Flag

    What is a backbone?

    In June 2011 GTT acquired PacketExchange, a privately held UK company and operator of a global backbone providing IP transit and MPLS transport services, for $20 million in cash.[4]

    In May 2012 GTT acquired nLayer Communications, a privately held global IP backbone, for $18 million. nLayer founder Richard Steenbergen joined GTT as CTO.[5]

    In April 2013 GTT acquired the IP network Tinet from Inteliquent, for $54.5 million in cash and services.[6]
    There are a number of examples of backbone networks in use today. One of the most common has to do with providing an infrastructure that allows the individual networks that exist at a corporate headquarters and a series of satellite locations to function both independently and interdependently. For example, this type of network backbone would make it possible for sales offices scattered around a nation or even around the world to share data among themselves and with the corporate sales office, making it easier to coordinate efforts. A similar approach is often used on college campuses today, making it possible for local networks functioning in each of the buildings to interconnect with a central system and share data across the interconnected network.

    Most backbone networks make use of a wide range of communication strategies in order to create the connections and move data back and forth. Both wired and wireless components may be involved in the process, with some locations making use of an Ethernet connection while remote locations with limited connection options may make use of slower telephone connections on a dial-up basis. It is not unusual for backbone networks to also include secondary connection options that can be used when and as there is a need. For example, an employee who is traveling for the business may be able to still access the backbone using one of the connection process, even if all he or she has access to is a telephone line at a hotel.

    It is important to distinguish backbone networks from an Internet backbone. While an internal backbone may provide ways to remotely access the networks by using the Internet, those interconnected networks within companies are still closed unless the proper credential are used to gain entrance. Architects of the backbone network can structure the communication process so that the means of entry are limited, meaning that even if an employee has access to a couple of networks connected to th

  • Reply to

    GTT model,IMO

    by friendofthetrend Apr 6, 2014 1:34 PM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Apr 9, 2014 7:26 PM Flag

    Having the right network for the times seems to be about savings and scalability / flexibilty needed to meet fluctuating bandwidth requirements.

    MPLS and hybrid is use d by GTT

    More technical explanations follow below.
    *****

    This article is from Juniper networks white paper,EVOLVING BACKBONE
    NETWORKS WITH AN MPLS SUPERCORE :

    Juniper’s modeling shows savings ranging from 40-65% depending on traffic characteristics such as flow size, peak-to-average ratios, and simultaneous traffic peak occurrences. These factors impact the decision on whether to keep traffic in the MPLS domain or move it to the OTN or optical domain.

    From a technological point of view, the core network infrastructure must be flexible enough to accommodate changes in traffic characteristics. This will be a critical capability as traffic patterns in the core of the network change due to a number of factors—new applications, data center consolidation, cloud computing, and of course the rise of mobile and video content.

    ***
    Think about the last two sentences.

    "must be flexible" ...especially if there happens to be...
    "cloud computing and rise of mobile and video content".

    Well, from what I read there happens to be a lot cloud computing coming and a lot of mobile and video. Maybe this is why GTT is positioned with a network that has "critical capability" and "flexibility". .

    They are not the only one to use this type of network. But the churn rates look very good. There has to be a reasons for that. Maybe it just works good and at a good price with good service.

    Also the technical guy at GTT that keeps things up and running, Richard Steenbergen, is somewhat of a Wizard and legend.

  • Reply to

    GTT model,IMO

    by friendofthetrend Apr 6, 2014 1:34 PM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Apr 9, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    For a more technical approach:

    Business model, in part, explained. (From From GTT website):

    GTT has extremely diverse and redundant fiber paths between all 200+ PoP locations utilizing our highly-scalable IP/MPLS backbone. MPLS traffic engineering ensures your application traffic not only has a path through the network to reach its destination but gets there with the most direct path possible. Our network has no legacy or low speed circuits anywhere

    GTT delivers our cloud networking services over an MPLS core based on the Juniper platform. Numerous services can be carried over MPLS, including both layer 2 (data link) and layer 3 (network) services. Some of the most common implementations of MPLS are:

    -Ethernet over MPLS

    Layer 3 VPNs, IP Transit

    Not only do MPLS methods make your network faster, they can also make it more secure. ...your data can ... be diverted around problematic areas of congestion, bottlenecks and link failures. If your network is busy and often sees times of heavy traffic in specific regions, MPLS is a way to maximize efficiency and minimize downtime.

    ****

    Scholarly article from 2010 that nevertheless sheds some light on GTT's business model:

    The rapidly increasing volume of Internet traffic has forced ISPs
    to find the ways to increase the capacity of their networks.
    Those ISPs that have kept pace with time by transitioning to
    new backbone technologies have been successful in increasing
    their market share. So, for this MPLS is an emerging technology
    and by no means a perfect solution to current IP network
    problems. It provides much better Traffic Engineering capability
    than the other networks. MPLS operates in coordination with IP
    Routing and its main objective is to provide the speed of
    switching to Layer 3. Introduction of labels provides an effective
    alternative and evades the need of large routing table lookups
    and results in fast routing. However, the telling factor of MPLS
    is its ability to manage and classify the traffic in order to provide
    better utilization of resources. Hence, this technology is used to
    effectively resolve integration and traffic engineering issues in
    carrier networks. MPLS VPN provides benefits that service
    providers need urgently in their networks, such as scalability,
    manageability and reliability.

  • friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Apr 9, 2014 11:53 AM Flag

    The article mentions a company Limelight and says it's EV is $200M but Yahoo shows it at $92.73M. So there appears to be a mistake somewhere.

    I think it's just a little guessing game, because when there's a vacuum of information that is THIS size, a journalist somewhere will try to fill it with with SOMETHING!

    I'm just watching how this trades. Market has to digest this "shelf " thing. There has to be a reaction to something this significant.

  • The last deal was big and super good for shareholders. Seems GTT may be thinking even bigger.

    So if you want to win big, you would want to go with a company that thinks big and has a record of pulling it of to the benefit of shareholders. ( I know that's a lot of "bigs" but GTT has a cap of $231M and just filed for a shelf nearly worth it's entire cap- so the word big can't be overemphasized).

    For some loose speculation on this Google: What Might an Independent IP Backbone Buy With $200M

  • friendofthetrend by friendofthetrend Apr 8, 2014 9:02 AM Flag

    This fits with bold plans for acquisitions and going to a more equity based capital structure as opposed to liability based.

    From S3 Filed 4-1-2014:

    we will use the net proceeds from the sale by us of the securities pursuant to this prospectus for general corporate purposes, which may include, among other things, repayment of indebtedness, funding future acquisitions, strategic investments, stock repurchases, capital expenditures and working capital. Pending such use, we may temporarily invest net proceeds in short-term, interest bearing, investment-grade securities.

    *****

    The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) introduced shelf registration in 2005. The name is based on the idea that the filing documents wait "on the shelf" until the company decides to issue the stock.

    A company would most commonly use shelf registration in situations when it expects to issue stock on multiple occasions. Normally, each issue would need to go through a full and lengthy legal process. This can be a particular burden if a company needs to raise money by issuing new stock as it would normally face delays before it was allowed to do so. With a shelf registration, the legal process is completed in advance and the same filing document can be reused whenever needed during the two-year period

  • friendofthetrend by friendofthetrend Apr 7, 2014 10:08 AM Flag

    Virginia Senate to Improve Traffic Problems
    Updated on Wed, 3/26/2014

    Another reason why Virginia is facing these congestion problems is the lack of good alternative transportation options, since the state has focused on developing highways instead of investing in a high-quality public transportation system. However, lawmakers are now trying to make a change, with a bill to reform public transportation and relief traffic congestion.

    The bill should help ensure additional funding for development and implementation of new smart-road technologies in parts of the state that have traffic congestion problems.

    Delegate Chris Peace's says that his bill will “create a mechanism to fund and refine innovation transportation initiatives that utilize 21st century technology” and “help spur innovation.”

    "...help move Virginia’s smart travel plans into the 21st century,” as Delegate Villanueva said. It aims to update Virginia's Smart Travel Program, which involves using advanced technologies to provide a faster traffic flow.

    In addition to these bills, there are other transportation reform initiatives, such as House Bill 1098, that will require investment in a smart transportation pilot zone in Northern Virginia or in Hampton Roads, as these regions are most heavily affected by congestion. This pilot zone will use the Smart Road Program model, and will be funded by the VDOT and the U.S. Department of Transportation.

    ***
    ITERIS has been active in VA and with Hampton Roads

    Here's just one article;
    By Debbie Messina
    The Virginian-Pilot
    © May 7, 2012

    VDOT last year awarded a contract to Iteris Inc., a California-based traffic management company, to develop and operate an enhanced 511 traveler information system over five years at a cost of $1.5 million per year.

  • Reply to

    article

    by friendofthetrend Apr 6, 2014 1:01 PM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Apr 6, 2014 3:15 PM Flag

    Keep in mind, there IS NO lawsuit.

    The lawyers throw the @#$% against the wall checking for whatever sticks. They try it with a lot of companies. If by chance they get enough investor replies on any one particular company they do a shake down for money and settlement.

    It's a numbers game and racketeering . It's how these lawyers raise money for themselves. Similar to Jesse Jackson's scheme. Threaten to sue. Take money NOT to sue.

    Orbcomm may have insurance for this.

  • Reply to

    Cloud Computing momentum accelerates

    by friendofthetrend Apr 3, 2014 9:34 AM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Apr 6, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    SaaS [is] a major evolving trend, “I don’t think it’s known how cloud computing will be leveraged by large organizations,” Luddy says. “But it’s top of mind with almost every large organization I’ve visited in the last 20 months.” GOOGLE it.

    This represents a hyper growth, industry trend benefiting GTT , since GTT is strategically positioned for it.

  • I had a stock, Orbcomm. After fifteen years or so they need to send their technological devices into orbit around the earth. So the $170M asset in orbit is depreciated.

    That makes sense because cash flow comes from sales related to the orbiting technology, but you can't call all of it it a bottom line profit if you know in fifteen years the thing becomes useless. And it costs so much to send there.You have a big looming Capx.

    Now GTT's situation is different in many respects. They also buy something, when they do an acquisition. It's also depreciated. But unlike Orbcomm, the capx will ultimately be much less then the depreciation entered on the books.Why? It's a whole separate story. But you can check into it.

    So this means the cash flow doesn't show up so quickly as profit. But so what? You can do the same things with it, as if it were profit. But there's no tax on it.

    The market recognizes GTT as a fairly new, coming to scale venture, sees the cash flow and rewards GTT with a market cap largely based on cash flow and how efficiently it's produced and increased.

    GTT promises up to 20% EBITDA. I read their first prospectus and it promised to get it up to 15%. There's no doubt the top line is growing. So multiply that 20% by $400M in promised top line and add the promised 10% organic. The market should award higher caps as goals are attained. ALL IMO.

  • friendofthetrend by friendofthetrend Apr 6, 2014 1:34 PM Flag

    First, what is it they do? Well, a byte of digital info needs to "come out" of my device and "into" yours, so you'll see a period at the end of this sentence. It takes a network to get it there.

    Companies have lots of bytes to send and receive all across the globe. They don't want to pay too much. They won't pay for anything they DON'T need. Scalability is important.They often need more privacy and reliabilty than the public internet provides. They don't want bytes to be delayed or lost. Too much depends on it. Competitiveness and survivalare two. So they need a really good network.

    But, with the advent of widespread cloud computing and the explosion of big data, byod and so forth, this can overwhelm network infrastructure capabilities and create havoc.

    Yet if the network is still reliable, ubiquitous and fast it can be used it to offer cloud services or access such services. They could thereby create more competitive ways of doing things. They may even have new products, based on a network that can handle things at a price that is not prohibitive.

    So GTT's business is enabling a good deal of transportation of digital info.The strategy is to build a ubiquitous, state of the art Juniper- only network that can stand up to the demands of exponentially increasing bandwidth needs, do so at a price that's below many others, service it way better than larger incumbents and smaller providers.

    Once you have such a thing, it's going to be in ever increasing, high demand buy the targeted potential users.

    It's like being in the trucking industry when, even as people are paying less for each pound of things being trucked, things being trucked are rapidly doubling all the time. So now, every ebayer in the world can think of more things to sell because it's easier to make a profit.

    However highways are jammed.

    So, using state of the art technology, some companies route around jams. They package and hop items between trucks at switching stations. They get real time data on traffic and weather conditions down to the timing of traffic lights.They may not own the most trucks but they build some thing modern, from the ground up, that facilitate transportation, by using relationships with people who DO own trucks.

    "Every CIO needs more bandwidth" is a quote of the times. But trying to build such a network, in house, is an ever more daunting task.

    The GTT "up to scale" network has just been built. It's just being "sold" by the new sales team.

    There should be a lot of upside.

  • friendofthetrend by friendofthetrend Apr 6, 2014 1:01 PM Flag

    ...worth noting.. .in light of the recent fishing expedition and this latest advertisement in search of aggrieved investors...

    http://aimo.com/2014/03/06/supreme-court-hears-case-against-frivolous-securities-class-action-lawsuits/

  • Reply to

    not enough cash on hand

    by commondollars Mar 28, 2014 2:13 PM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Apr 4, 2014 10:29 PM Flag

    I'd look at the mean $16 target and take it seriously. It started as $6. That was hit. It was upped to $10. That was hit. Then the mean target was upped to $13. That was hit. All quite rapidly. I don't see why the target won't be raised again.May take more time than previously though...

    It can be hard to understand the business model because they sort of explain what they do to the people in charge of tech, who need help with a company network. So don't get too bogged down in MPLS, packets, latency and so forth. I'll post more on this later on this. By knowing the model and industry trends, it's more understandable why GTT can go a lot higher, IMO..

    Please check the chart and make sure- as best as you can decipher - that people are not just selling the rally but buying the dip and holding. Use a stop loss of some sort. GTT had a decent day today.

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