Sooner or later there has to be an explosion in revenues.
When that will happen, I don't know. Probably no next Q. Or-- probably then.
I just know you cannot simply look at things arithmetically and linearly, when they are amenable only to calculus and they are exponential.
I'm just saying, here are a lot of hockey stick shaped charts that go into the outcome, into the number and amount of reloads.It will come, imo.
Only the tiniest fraction companies can accomplish what this company did:
Dug themselves out of the hole of pink- slip-left-for-dead-derision and obscurity.
With that kind of strategic goal setting and perseverance in execution, the future looks good!!
They have proven they can acquire, manage the integration and improve metrics in a way that fits with strategic objectives.
As Winston Churchill said, "when going through Hell, keep going! Never, never give up!"
Liquidity challenges are mitigated by being on larger exchange.
I'm hoping to see some continued selling of the investment thesis and some institutional buying.
With the tiny float, price per share should rapidly improve as long as they CONTINUE improving the cash flow, margins and other metrics. Talk about a tiny obscure company going on a larger stage and you now have to mention ARI. Super!! Thanks I need the money!
We never buy based on unrealistic estimates- it's always realistic.
Actually, here's how it works:
We don't buy till we "feel" the impetus, somewhat viscerally.
So does logic drive impetus, or do we buy on emotion and justify ourselves later with logic? I think the latter.
We have a hype industry called "advertising" that exploits the real way we make decisions.
So the "brain" that got me to buy at $9 tells me to hold at $5.
The shorts don't care if there are a gazillion images being deposited. They just know what longs should know too: It takes time before Mitek can get the revenues it needs to be profitable. Time before any hockey stick shaped chart of revenues presents itself
AND, as long as there are enough who believe the time for an explosion in profits is just around the corner AND as long there are those that feel the emotion to "get in", you will have shorts jumping all over it again.
So there's justified expectation. That, you point out. But there is such a thing as a bubble of expectation to be popped and shorted.
THAT, I point out.
Inexperienced investors- and there are a lot- get freaked. Shorts win.
Of course, at some point the shorts may find themselves with hockey stick up their #$%$.
I believe that day will come.
But the short damage will be much more closely hinged on revenues released- not based on what we say here or expectations, that may only be hitched to emotional perceptions.
Mark Tluszcz, CEO at Mangrove Capital Partners. See video.
Mitek is right at the heart of this. Mitek's been using the words to explain the advantages of their mobile image capture since 2007. That, and "seamless". Of course "killer app" too but that's ancient.
Once investors have a vocabulary they tend seek out opportunity based on that vocabulary, I would think. . And they tend to grasp the potential better and be more comfortable investing in new things.
This is all a part of Mitek going Degenerous/mainstream.
And doing it before there is a credible competitor.
Check Google trends for searches on "frictionless". It's not searched a lot, but it's trending sharply up. Interesting stuff.
...and those are my exact intentions right now.To hold a core position. The company is entitled to some time. ...to get through any mis-steps they may have had in the past. And to get the young cow pumping out the recurring revenues.
Of course I want to believe everything you say. You make valid points, in that, we are NOTt in the same exact "dejavu" we found ourselves to be just before the previous infamous miss and plunge.
But a devil's advocate might simply point out that Mitek's day in the sun has been declared before and "priced into" the stock prematurely before.
Management has proven a lot of good things. But keep in mind they proved there can be, if not outright shenanigans, definitely screw ups too.
So, anyways, a flower unfurls when conditions present. Not a minute before. This is now a revenue growth game.
If I liked to short equities, I might do so, if I believed a stock could get way ahead of itself once again.
So it's the longs getting unhinged from attainable revenue growth targets and going off into the wild blue yonder that helps cause shorting.
I carry the guilt of being stupid but try to learn a few things. Revenues HAVE to be there.
That's all I'm saying. That said, appreciate your posts.
Sales, so far, have been what is holding back the price.
Mitk would have kept climbing the first time it hit $12 if sales confirmed that the expectations of growth were justified. But revenues did not confirm that at all.
You cannot, imo, have a $7 - 12 price per share and have the amount of sales we've seen so far. That would be unhinged from the reality of this very important metric-REVENUE.
I mention this not to discourage longs but to encourage them IF they believe that revenue growth, in earnest, is at hand.
I thought the stock would closing in on $30 by now. It's no where near that. Mitek is still struggling to confirm any shadow of my previous my growth expectations for it
But that said, after last months results, I think we could be turning a major corner.
If revs come in at under $3.2 M neighborhood, expect the stock to tank. In the neighborhood of $4M and no big drama. Above $4.5M and we'll be in or near double digits, probably, depending on what is said in CC.
But what counts is not a single Q but a trend. There has to be steady growth in revenues in evidence. otherwise there will be no growth in PPS.
To just shoot to $12 now, could possibly happen. But it would probably a set up for a replay of another famous Mitk nose dive. I know my posts are long. Sorry. But there it is.
Banks often buy from channel partners of Mitek's. Banks probably worry more about NOT having mobile deposit that works and NOT having it NOW, then about what happens in the future, with a lawsuit of Mitek's. Banks would be looking at an immediate exodus of mobile banking customers, not to mention higher check processing fees.
But in spite of the lawsuit there seems to be are no real competitors to buy mobile deposit from.
It all makes me think there is a consensus that Mitek is the way to go. And the lawsuit is stopping no one from going with them.
Who do you want to buy from, the guy who says his idea was stolen or the guy who's product works better and is available?
You just want something NOW that works.
Whether banks think the suit is bogus, or a slam dunk for Mitek, I , myself, wouldn't be able to say.
As far as it being a slam dunk for USAA, that doesn't walk or quack anything at all like a duck- not to me.
Not with everyone flocking to Mitek. Not with Mitek's recent patents granted that improve mobile deposit. Why doesn't USAA improve theirs? Maybe they can't. Maybe they don't have the hundreds of years of man hours that went into the original patented product.
I posted this upped target ago about a week before Yahoo revised it but my post was deleted because I mentioned the other site.
I believe the target may have been moved up in light of the comments made in CC re new goals:
"We have set new objectives. To more than double our current annualized run rate to a $400 million level and more that triple our annualized adjusted EBITDA run rate to $100 million."
These predicted fruitions have to do with the execution of strategic plans.This should result in upped price targets as organic growth kicks in and acquisitions( that continue to fit their strategies) come out of the pipeline.
The goal is $400M revs. 10% organic growth is $40M. So that, right there, would be nearly half of 2010 entire revs. So you can say what you want, but meeting these goal-s exactly as they HAVE MET their $200M rev. goals- would be good for the PPS (price/ share).
I think the PPS was about $1- 1.20 when the $200 M goal was set forth. NOTHING was said much about organic growth then..So, look at what the price was upon achievement of $200M. I think it's fair to extrapolate another double, triple or quadruple
We had a drop on higher volume yesterday. But if you check the 5 day Yahoo candle chart and the one day chart, every time it went down, it was on light volume and EVERY time it went up it was on high volume. All candles that are long and white are on volume. ALL drops are short candles on light volume.
Pretty amazing, in fact.
This supports the idea that accumulation may be what's happening. It takes time for these big players, who believe in the company's future, to get their full position. And it's still possibly going on, even after recent big gains in valuation. That would bode well.
Add $3 a share or so,imo, if favorable. It dropped by much more than that when the lawsuit was announced as I recall. The Enterprise value of Mitek was cut in half -at least.
any time the stock moves up ...
There has always been some reaction to the new high- in terms of profit taking, shakeout, whatever. Whatever low is produced has always been retested at least once if not thrice. This happens even though the CC and results are great. And they were very good this time again.
Sometimes the stock trades momentarily "crazy low " -below it's 200dma but once these lows are "in " it just goes on to a new high. Just takes time... see what it does this time, if anything, to fake us out.
Hopefully big volume buyers pounce again.
...and today, Yahoo finally updates the information I posted. Check the institutional interest. THIS is what will drive the stock price higher for a while-imo. Remember GTT was left for dead. But it's VERY much alive and well. So institutions need to address that.
If you missed it on the quick take-off, now's your chance!
$7.50 is only 50 Miles up the road and Mitek's not taking any time for grits right now.IMO.
Taking a good product that works well, that everyone seems to like and making it work better.
Gee, wonder why USAA hasn't done the same?????
Something fishy about their entire lawsuit!!
No real head to head competition in 3-4 years.
Now, with 3-4 million per Q starting to come in and and Ellen Degenerous doing skits about it Mitek owns the market pretty much solely.
Commenting on recent acquisition , Calder said:
GTT will leverage this increased exposure to take on bigger
competitors by promoting its service proposition of simplicity, speed,
agility and global delivery. “We are going to supercharge our 50
strong global sales force to continue to grow our business
organically,” says Calder. GTT’s customer targets: medium and large
scale enterprises as well as carrier accounts.
Chalk one up for organic growth!
These are basic, momentous, mobile banking- picture- snapping- consumer , shifts.
And FAVORABLE to Mitek's niche.
That niche: Saving banks from losing market share.
I know how it must feel. The chart is a disaster for anyone short.
But, you can always grasp at straws.