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Daegis Inc Message Board

friendofthetrend 314 posts  |  Last Activity: May 23, 2016 5:39 PM Member since: Jan 5, 2001
  • friendofthetrend by friendofthetrend May 23, 2016 5:39 PM Flag

    Buying a Gamma Knife does not equate to buing a Mevion. Leasing a Mevion takes a lot more pain out:

    From article entitled: Building the World’s First Private, Physician-Owned Proton Therapy Center

    We’re frequently asked if we have advice for other practices considering installing a compact proton therapy system. .. Make sure finances are in order and develop a solid financial plan. Stay focused on the task at hand and try to avoid discouragement. Consider all options including dividing project expenses among multiple banks or financiers.

    Securing the financial resources necessary to fund the project was undoubtedly the most challenging portion of the entire process.

    Acknowledging we needed expert financial guidance, we hired Heritage Capital, a banking and advisory firm with global reach, to assist us in locating the right financing. Much personal time and effort also went into raising the capital needed to turn our proton therapy system into a reality. We reached out to more than 60 banks and made personal presentations to 20.

    Ultimately, the large project required a customized financing structure with funding divided among four local banks...

    *****

    From CC:
    Our success and guidance in this complex project from inception through delivery and installation of the MEVION S250 proton system and the placing of permanent financing has not gone un-noticed in our industry. We expect that the success of our Orlando project to facilitate our negotiations with other hospitals around the country that have expressed interest in partnering with AMS to develop proton centers of their own.

    ***

  • friendofthetrend friendofthetrend May 20, 2016 9:53 AM Flag

    The presentation will be REAL interesting.

    One thing is sure, there is a disconnect between the value of Climate Corp and market cap of ITI.

    ITI has been building Clear Ag for years now. More recently, we have the shake up in the Ag industry. I think it's like building a boat in case there's a big flood and-- as a flood becomes more likely-- the unfinished boat should become more and more valuable.

    The " sea" of change in the Ag industry is indicated in the article I just quoted:

    **

    "Digital farming could hurt industry leaders in the crop chemicals sector as it may cut the need for chemicals and fertilizers...

    As a result, suppliers such as Bayer, Monsanto and others are buying technology companies, as it will not only offset the potential revenue losses from inputs, but also help them "gain revenue from owning the companies that supply technology to farmers."

    **
    Companies need to gain revenue and save money on research using big data analytics and ITI fits in with this.

  • friendofthetrend friendofthetrend May 19, 2016 9:56 AM Flag

    Something is amiss when one is values at $1B and the other is $80M. However there are a lot of similarities.

    As far as Ag consolidation goes it's like 'intel inside" Once you are in there, they can change the name from Gateway to Asus; you are still in there.

  • friendofthetrend friendofthetrend May 18, 2016 9:57 PM Flag

    "At some level, it could seem attractive to have Iteris acquired by someone. But it strikes me as a) too soon as the Precision Ag revenues are miniscule at present "

    If you read the transcript of Roth presentation:
    "There is a specific company that worked in this space called Climate Corp. They were acquired by Monsanto -- again, just very, very interesting --
    for $1 billion. So [they were] -- almost pre-revenue; they did $5 million a year in revenue, were acquired for $1 billion to essentially take the technology inside. "

  • How Digital Farming Could Hurt Bayer, Monsanto

    Digital farming could hurt industry leaders in the crop chemicals sector as it may cut the need for chemicals and fertilizers, Angie Setzer of Citizens Grain Elevator told Benzinga.

    "Precision planting was just the first step in increasing technological advances in farming. This move towards more digital production is extremely legit and is definitely the wave of the future," Setzer said.

    In a weak agricultural market, Setzer said technologies such as precision planting enable farmers to cut costs, conserve soils and protect waterways all while maintaining maximum yield potential.

    Digital farming could hit companies such as Bayer AG , Monsanto Company Du Pont
    as they may have to adjust their business models due to the potential shift in the industry demand.

    "[I]t is likely we will see chemical and fertilizer demand decrease as well as a move towards more area-compatible seed," Setzer highlighted.

    As a result, the industry expert said the input suppliers such as Bayer, Monsanto and others are buying technology companies, as it will not only offset the potential revenue losses from inputs, but also help them "gain revenue from owning the companies that supply technology to farmers."

    In February, Bayer acquired the plant health diagnosis and infection level warning service provider proPlant .... In 2013, Monsanto spent $1 billion on buying Climate Corporation... Du Pont is investing in Encirca, whose analytics services enables real-time management decisions for growers.

    Setzer noted that data mining is the next big thing in agriculture; going forward, farmers need not depend on the "educated guesses" from the USDA.

    "Companies have the ability now to know just how many acres of a certain crop have been planting and into what type of conditions. As we move forward we will no longer be forced to use educated guesses by the USDA but will have companies in the know when it comes to potential crop production"

  • friendofthetrend friendofthetrend May 18, 2016 9:07 PM Flag

    MAY 12, 2016 by: Emiko Terazono and Arash Massoudi
    Shortly after Syngenta’s Michel Demaré rebuffed a $46bn approach from the US’s Monsanto last August, the Swiss group’s chairman predicted that there would be more dealmaking to come.

    “We are all convinced that [the agricultural business sector] will look quite different in six months,” he said, adding that every big company was talking to everybody else.

    Monsanto’s failed bid for Syngenta last year set off consolidation talks in earnest as the companies started looking to create large agricultural seeds and chemicals groups.

    First Syngenta tried to merge with DuPont’s agribusiness and failed. DuPont then announced a plan to merge with Dow and break into three divisions.

    In the background, BASF of Germany looked at bidding for Syngenta and spinning out its agribusiness, but eventually could not compete with a huge cash offer from ChemChina.

    The first two deals left Monsanto, BASF and Bayer scrambling for other deal options.

    “The Dow-Dupont, ChemChina-Syngenta deals created such large entities, the remaining three had to find some way of combining,” said Jim Thomas at ETC Group, which monitors the impact of concentration on biodiversity and agriculture.

    For Bayer, a transaction will allow the German company to bulk up the agricultural business. Analysts estimated it could more than double annual sales from about $12bn to $28bn and offer an opportunity to spin off the operations.

    A Bayer-Monsanto deal could mean that BASF’s agricultural business is left struggling. With a weak product pipeline and its focus on fungicides in Europe, the company will face stiff competition from the other big three merged groups.

    Bernstein says: “BASF will suffer as a sub-scaled crop protection player in the global market.”

    Consolidation will shrink the number of players, with Monsanto-Bayer accounting for about a quarter of the world’s agrochemicals market and just under a third of the seeds market.

    excerpted MAY 12, 2016

  • friendofthetrend friendofthetrend May 18, 2016 6:34 PM Flag

    The danger is, Bayer does the deal and decide to marginalize ITI because they now own Climate Corp by virtue of the buyout. Maybe they simply won't need ITI so much any more. But I think ITI has a leg up on Climate Control in certain respects and visa versa. In some ways they could help each other and in others they compete and there could be some synergies and cost savings were they to work together. It's never simple and I just don't know.

    There is a signed contract with ITI and Bayer and it's a vital foot in the door. It is not significant in terms of revenues right now. Bayer said at the time:"This partnership with Iteris will enable us to further leverage our global expertise to deliver best-in-class digital farming services to our customers.”

    Remember that it's doubtful an acquisition will be made. It just makes good headlines.

    However there could be upside for ITI even if it is done. ITI is right in the middle--- witha valid contract, patents and a proven product.

    Maybe ITI will be seen as a player and they will find themselves at the big table saying give us this and we'll work with you and do that. I don't know so-- as with all posters--- take it with a grain of salt.

  • friendofthetrend friendofthetrend May 18, 2016 6:07 PM Flag

    You are correct. It will be a good 9 month wait. It will be nice to have a presentation posted in the investor section. It's nice to have a little excitement surrounding Proton. But this is a really thinly traded stock with very few shares so we'll see how it goes.

    I'll predict 16% increase in gross profit will result from the Orlando Mevion. I'm saying a $.3 - $.5 profit every Q will be reported on a pretty regular basis starting 2017. This is a far cry from what they have been reporting.

    Once they have a benchmark to go by, the signing of a site for yet another Mevion will mean you an buy the stock at signing and sell it when it's making $.55 - $.75M every Q. So no one will want to sell unless they receive a premium over the multiple based on what it's making at the time of the signing. This could go on for years.

    You'll have a cash flow EPS positive company with the ties to the next big thing in cancer treatment providing the growth.

    They would never be interested in Mevions if they could not get a decent rent multiplier. You can buy a house for cash and collect in rent what you paid in 80 - 100 months. Why not just do that? So I'm looking at the big generalities. In 7 years the Mevion makes about $21M and 40% is gross profit. I went from there.

  • friendofthetrend friendofthetrend May 18, 2016 2:32 PM Flag

    There will be a presentation 5-26. I've seen the way this stock trades on news. By the time it's announced the move was made weeks earlier. So they have patents and they have had a team of meteorologists going way back in time. They have a first mover advantage with agnostic platform scalable world wide.

    This Monsanto buy out will probably never come to be. However the stock is holding up well and it tells me to just hold on. A buyout of Monsanto (and of course, Climate Corp) by Bayer might be good for ITI.

  • friendofthetrend friendofthetrend May 18, 2016 9:53 AM Flag

    I guess Monsanto did not buy the Bayer division. Now Bayer is rumored to be trying to buy Monsanto. That might be wonderful for ITI but it's hard to say.

    Bayer Eyes Monsanto
    German Seed, Chemical Giant May Bid on Monsanto
    Pam Smith , Crops Technology Editor
    5/12/2016 | 1:42 PM CDT

    Bayer, which is valued at about $96 billion, refused to comment on the rumors

  • ...the WSJ article is being picked up like wildfire. It's going on TV stations and all over the web.

    Some articles recently even headline the new less costly, compact protons as "cures"-- probably to draw attention to the article. I didn't say it. They say it. Some patients are saying it.

    A little hype could do wonders for attention to the AMS story which is about to be presented in June.

    I know, I've been posting enough for now. I just find the article pretty interesting.

  • friendofthetrend by friendofthetrend May 17, 2016 2:12 PM Flag

    Monsanto: “We are in the process of developing the products, trying the products on the farm, making sure the farmers get familiarized, but the moment farmers start using and seeing the benefit it is just going to exponentially grow,” Madrazo said. “Then the challenges is how fast we can go to meet that demand.”

    ITI had a lane changing warning device they pioneered and it was aimed at the likes of Ford. They made money off it but had to settle mostly for the trucking industry. It's not enough to have the best product . You need a channel to the big boys.

    I think ITI has the channel this time around. It's 70-88% probability the strategy really pays off for investors at these PPS. 20-30% we have another lane change warning device result. IMO.

    They must have learned from the Ford deal. Let's hope so. This could be way, way bigger than anyone is letting on.

  • friendofthetrend friendofthetrend May 17, 2016 2:01 PM Flag

    Digital agriculture the next big thing, says Monsanto official

    “We are in the process of developing the products, trying the products on the farm, making sure the farmers get familiarized, but the moment farmers start using and seeing the benefit it is just going to exponentially grow,” Madrazo said. “Then the challenges is how fast we can go to meet that demand.”

    ***

    If you listen to the investor presentations, tiny ITI has a first mover on crop and brand agnostic platform but Monsanto is moving ahead and predicting explosive growth. So the deals in the pipeline should go through and this should give ITI a leg up right now on Monsanto. Unbelievable as that may sound.

    Google the article.

  • Reply to

    site worth traffic

    by friendofthetrend May 3, 2016 12:58 PM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend May 17, 2016 1:48 PM Flag

    It's a matter of execution on the strategy.

    Performance Analytics business unit recognized $1.4 million in revenue last Q. They have a pipeline of deals. Revenue will start climbing. It will take a while. There's a transcript of the last presentation and ramp is coming. It should be real steady. No lumps.

    Analysts will have to take note and like the story because it's 80% margins once they have scale and it's all recurring. It's a whole other business model with better valuation multiples.

    Patience still required. They need to close deals in the pipeline and all the major groundwork is done. I have 80% confidence in double soon enough.

  • Less costly, compact machines are rekindling demand from hospitals

    Ion Beam Applications SA... is selling so many systems lately that it needs to boost its 1,200-strong workforce by 400 workers. It launched a big recruitment drive across the country this year, featuring radio and newspaper spots along with dozens of billboards and posters.

    “It was very difficult to escape the IBA campaign

    ***

    This article could actually tend to move AMS. 1. It's WSJ, investigative, privy to CEO interviews-- with gravitas. 2. It comes out with perfect timing: Orlando up and running .AMS is the true pure play and they are presenting to investors in June. Perfect!!

    Also check out blog with interesting comments "“The Most Disruptive Biotech Discovery of 2015
    WHAT'S DAVE LASHMET'S TEASE ABOUT THE "ABSCOPAL EFFECT" AND PROTON BEAM THERAPY FOR STANSBERRY VENTURE

    **
    I believe ASHS has relationship with IBA, is that true?

  • friendofthetrend friendofthetrend May 17, 2016 10:55 AM Flag

    I believe this product improves both the back of the house and front of the house.
    Banks cannot let another bank have an edge.
    Can you say, "gold standard?". How about "table-stakes"?

  • friendofthetrend friendofthetrend May 17, 2016 9:08 AM Flag

    This is big. Think dominoes.

  • friendofthetrend friendofthetrend May 17, 2016 9:02 AM Flag

    "You really think AMS will be [Greulich's] one winner".

    It's you who are not to be believed if you post stuff like that.

    The only ones who always buy micro stocks that are always perfectly timed winners are the liars. You have 8 or so to offset ones that may not pan out. I'd be doing very well on a group of Greulich's ideas.

    In the Trump school of debate you'd be lyin' barney but I prefer to make my points rather than define you.

  • friendofthetrend friendofthetrend May 16, 2016 11:14 PM Flag

    After your comments on the recent CC, check Ian Cassell at seekingalpha. He has an article entitled My Thoughts On Microcap Executive Compensation. The EBITDA is pretty high on AMS for a micro but so is compensation. Reading some past CC transcripts I believe there were pay cuts in the past and they implied that cuts will be discussed on the agenda. Are you still long?

  • Reply to

    Something about a significant gain?

    by smallcap_777 May 12, 2016 5:32 PM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend May 16, 2016 11:10 AM Flag

    reading the CC transcript I can emphasize with this story:
    On the greaseboard at the front of the room is a list of all six of Focus Sports’ draft-eligible players, along with a list of teams that have expressed interest in each player. Williams has the longest list of eligible suitors: the Patriots, Texans, Browns, Eagles, Packers, Jets, Dolphins, 49ers and Jaguars are all scrawled in under his name.

    Snyder checks his phone and says, “We’ve got two who say they want him – the Jets and Green Bay. … But Green Bay specifically called and said they’re not going to draft a receiver today.”

    Snyder is convinced that Williams will find a home at some point that afternoon because for weeks, he’s fielded calls from various NFL teams who’ve expressed interest in signing the speedy receiver if he goes undrafted.

    That’s heartening, but Snyder’s response to each team is the same every time: “If you want him, you should draft him."

DAEG
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