See Yahoo "Summary" and analyst opinion. I posted about this and where it came from but Yahoo insists on deleting the info. Maybe later tonight I'll have something more to say about this.
Don't be sorry.ithought they would have stronger results.I sold my piddling right after reading ER. For me, it was not quite strong enough in predicting positive EBITDA.
I need to see an up day on above average volume as follow up to 11-16 which was up but on about avg. vol.
Once this move from the highs is over I will have way, way more shares then I've ever had. So I tend to" post verbose on the ones I own the most".
It will probably take till 1-2017 or beyond to really start challenging old highs.
Q4 should be decent but there should be some excitement about Q1. Xcede should be near to funding for human trials.
I think now is the time to hold and accumulate more, should it go a bit lower.
The metrics and ratios are at a sort of tipping point where any new contract could have a big effect. The ratios are at O.K. but a hair, a measly contract or two away from Wow!
Fear can help drive spending in DHS and Paris attacks are the keeping USA from falling back to a pre 911 mind set. We have to stay vigilant but if they mess with the USA I do think it will be the end of ISIS holding any territory.
And that will not be the end to terrorist attacks but it will be the end to the exponential growth of recruitment into their "end of the world- find meaning in religion- last chance to join the Caliph" cult mentality.
I like the chart long term as an entry. Been buying a lot too for the following fundamental reasons.
Backlog had dropped from $38M, down to $33M at the time of the Bowser Report interview in 7-2014, then to $30M as the stock has drifted for a few Qs after the L3 announcement.
But it was up to $35M in Q3 and Q4 it should exceed $38M, possibly even over $40M. So I'm expecting good progress and numbers by 12-29 and maybe some comments about how the DichroTec is fully integrated and deals are getting inked in.
Operating cash flow was good but it was set back by $.5 M with build up of inventory in Q3. Maybe it's set to rip in Q4. Add that inventory build up back in to OCF and you maybe get a run rate of $9M yr for a multiple of 3.6. Even if it falls short of that, FLIR is trading over 13 times OCF.
The Hilger contract and possibly other Optometrics Segment deals may have neccessitated the inventory build up. Any such contracts will begin creating bigger backlog in Q 4 and solid revs in Q1, due to the timing. Last CC was about a week BEFORE the Hilger deal and CEO said he expected Optometrics growth in Q4.
For some reason the stock got to be oversold in spite of how significant the contract Hilger seems to be.
ROA, ROE, PE, PS, EV/EBITDA, a lot of improving metrics should be coming due to the Hilger deal. It's also better for the USA because it helps secure cities against nuclear materials without depleting rare Helium.
Bigger backlog and improving metrics means the company can plan better and get better financing terms. It's just better for the stock but it's not baked into the price right now, I don't think. Fair value would seem to be a lot higher than presently trading.
Inventory 3,419,000 3,010,000 2,941,000 2,954,000
Above is inventory with last Q listed first. As you can clearly see there is a bulge last Q.
Seems to me the only reason to increase inventory is to complete contracted sales.
Expansion Of Securing The Cities Program Announced By DHS
Also Google older article:
Frost & Sullivan Commends Thermo Fisher Scientific for its Astute Expansion Strategy in the Challenging Radiation Detection Equipment Market
Dynasil CLYC product is in the equipment named as the "front runner" in the Securing The Cities" program by DNDO.
If you need verification I can provide it. If you read the last CC, this is all hinted at. Many cities in the USA will roll out.
CEO commented about this steady CLYC rev stream. So this is probably the underlying reason for it.
Last big contract was announced right after last CC. Revs will come in a bit from this in Q4 but in full force Q1.
It's normal for stocks like this to go a little too far too fast but DYSL has never traded at these levels AND ALSO be flashing signs of being oversold. It's normal for a stock like this to get way oversold.
We had a bullish golden cross and this is the best pullback to buy that I've seen since being here.
Expecting solid progress will be reported before 12-29 and they will have a very good outlook for 2016 with funding for Xcede in Q1 coming.
Sold a lot of ITI, have been adding to DYSL and will add more tomorrow.
"Demand for radiation detectors in ports of entry like airports is enormous, analysts say.
Fixed portal monitors, especially docked at airports for passenger scrutiny, also need to establish that they don’t release any ionizing radiation themselves.
Demand for radiation detectors for first responders also is very high, analysts say, as these technologies have applicability in public areas to prevent release of radiation leading to damage and injury"
Also Panama Canal expansion will be completed in 2016 and it means more containers to East coast of USA. Today 3% are screened for radiation and recently some lawmakers are recently calling for 100%.
Got lucky doing Google searches daily.
On another front, I called IR and they sort of affirmed that ITI will probably bid on the FL ATIS, next gen travelers system because it's right in their wheelhouse. It's something to watch for. Also hoping for more on BASF contract. Recent contracts have not really hit the revs. yet. Nice backlog here.
This is the best entry point for DYSL that I've seen. L3 contract still in effect. Hilger's 6M contract just kicking in. Expect funding for Xcede in Q1.
Buying all I can today and Monday.
This is a gift. It will bounce hard once it has a bottom in place. The outlook for 2016 will be good. Muti year contract benefits 2015 but much more in 2016 if you listened to CC.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Eased up on being over invested in ITI. Long term is very promising. Heading into DYSL full tilt. MITK and AXGN also. I still own ITI. It's holding up quite well but a little gap down and it's under a key moving average.
FL and AZ are soliciting IT bids.
The ramp in Ag revs is a bit agonizing for me. Wanted a bit more. But it's a slow thing.
ITI still a good value here.
The elderly Thorntons had millions of shares of MITK which they kept for tens of years hoping to one day sell into the good news that the company has become a success.They have done well.
Insider selling issues are just about over now. The financials are VERY strong with a solid growth trajectory.
Everything that held MITK back in the past seems to be fading fast, in a cloud of dust.
Restructuring might be good. I'm adding on any weakness I can find. Next Q is Holiday period. That'll hold back sales.
Long way to go towards $1.6B market. An exponential rise in sales coming towards end of 2016, I would expect.
Check MITK too. Strong financials, high growth and still low priced. Their top line dollar amount, margins and growth trajectories are similar to AXGN but without the debt. Looks like clear sailing ahead for a lot of reasons.
This is the shelf filing they referred to in the last CC. Now that it's filed, If they need equity financing they can offer the shares and raise $$. It could just sit there without being used or they could use it and depending on how share holders like how it's being used and the pricing of shares, the stock would react up or down.
This afternoon we have also filed an S-3 shelf registration with the SEC, Securities and Exchange Commission. While we do not have any plans to access this shelf, this filing provides the company with maximum flexibility as we consider strategic options going forward
“The Surface Transportation Reauthorization... passed by the US House of Representatives today, recognizes that intelligent transportation systems (ITS) are a vital...
“The Act provides critical funding ... of next generation innovation....accelerating the adoption of new and existing technologies that are making our roads and vehicles safer, reducing traffic congestion, enabling new mobility options...
-ITS America president and CEO Regina Hopper
“I am confident that we will be able to resolve any differences we have with the Senate and produce a final measure that improves our nation’s infrastructure and reforms our transportation programs," Schuster added
As of September 30, 2015 unrestricted cash and cash equivalents were $10.5 million compared to the $8.9 million reported at June 30, 2015. Additionally the company has $3.5 million of restricted cash which must be used for the future payment obligations associated with the Alphatec settlement.
Source: CC transcript