"Anyone care to guess what type of dollars we could see Xcede fetch? It sure would be nice if it is north of $20-25 million"
I noticed ARTH reported animal tests of it's product were successful in stopping bleeding and it went up 18% today. It looks like they don't have much cash and no sales yet EV is $14.8M. That's a market valuation.
Still, it's impossible to value Xcede.
But venture capitalists would like the bios of the people involved in the patent. Mayo Clinic luminaries. Also Xcede has at least one Mayo Dr highly eminent in the specific field, who lists himself as an investor.
I've read that VC's want a good chance of getting 8Xs their money in 3.5 yrs or so.They invest in several deals, take the good with the bad and hope to still come out 4 to 8x's their money every 3.5 Yrs. So they will look at the many animal studies completed on Xcede and get a ballpark of the market size. If they think they can make $80M in 3.5Yrs they might go $10. But the market for the Patch could be in the multiple 100's of millions.
Even J&J might want it just so that no one else gets it and competes with THEIR Evarrest.
One problem is that DYSL cannot afford to keep sinking $300K a Q into Xcede. CEO Sully is clear about that. They lost money last Q and have about $4M in cash. They don't have $15M to do human trials and CEO is clear on that too.
So they are very motivated to sell.
They are not going to raise $15M or more and keep Xcede in their consolidated statements. But Xcede is approaching that point of no return where $15M is needed.
I'm pretty sure they will lay it all out on 2-26. Maybe there will NOT be a final deal but they should really shed some light on the final deal. By next Q it should be finalized if I understand the CEO's comments correctly.
It's not just Xcede as a potential catalyst. A CLYC contract would be, pretty much, pure profit for DYSL. No need to take a loan ramp up manufacturing and hiring like they did with L3. It's the OEM, (Thermal Fisher) that would do that. Then Thermo sends checks to DYSL, pure and simple. The L3 contract would most likely be tiny compared to a DNDO contract.
We do not know if a contract will be issued. However, IMO, when the company with William Hagan on the BOD says..."we believe that the government is going to be issuing a contract (for funding of the next generation of nuclear radiation detectors) soon", I'd take that pretty seriously.
William Hagan, Ph.D.joined the Dynasil Board of Directors in July of 2012. Dr. Hagan was the Acting Director of the Department of Homeland Security’s Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO) reporting to the Secretary of Homeland Security from December of 2009 until August of 2010. Before serving as Acting Director, Dr. Hagan was the DNDO’s Acting Deputy Director and Assistant Director for the Transformational and Applied Research Directorate during four years of service at DNDO.
I get the sense from the CC that Xcede has to go, one way or the other. They are still in discussions with large biomedical companies. CEO said, "I think we will have some news ...over the course of this quarter."
"We may have some news there at our Annual Meeting[2-26]. But I’m not sure yet. "
They recently bought the DichroTec coating chambers in order to open up the number of applications they can address and to remove the limit on capacity. CEO says they are "developing a solid pipeline of bid proposals for long-term coating projects." I would take his word on that.
Hilger is gearing up for possible OEM deals on a world wide market for baggage screening. Optometrics is looking good. The $8M in backlog they got in Jan. for contract research is really reassuring.
They need to get out of the Xcede investment in order for the turnaround in DYSL to REALLY be complete, IMO, and get to the business of growing again. I believe it will have to get done soon. That is a major focus now.
In CC CEO said they have "opened up six high capacity furnaces at Hilger" for "low after glow" products. This appears to me to be related to the product with the "competitive advantage" referred to in the post I'm replying to.
He said further, " We have several interesting opportunities to provide product for this application and are in discussions with OEM customers to supply these crystals." It can be used for "baggage scanning". So that would be a world wide market that they are preparing right now for by "opening capacity ".
This would be an example of how the DYSL business model works. They got paid to do the research. Then produce and commercialize it via OEMs.
January 24, 2015
Driverless Research Site Opens
Leading companies in the project include General Motors, Toyota, Honda, Ford, Nissan, Delphi, Denso, Iteris, Econolite Group, Verizon Communications and Xerox.
The testing center is also receiving funding from the Michigan Department of Transportation. The center is working with the U.S. Department of Transportation
Would you believe, I posted a reply and it was deleted?
I guess you can't say how you actually feel or a Yahoo- software- gizmo automatically and heartlessly deletes it. You have to say peed off. As soon as you use the other word for peed it gets deleted. I'm probably taking a hit to the portfolio tomorrow and now this from Yahoo!
Seriously. I would not think of selling a penny.
A few words from the CC:
"Healthy revenues for years to come"
If you sold just before the L3 contract you'd be peed off. What was I thinking?
I'm holding because if it comes, this will be bigger than L3 by far,IMO.
"Years to come" . Just think of that and I have to stick around.
It may not happen as soon as they hope or it may happen sooner. At some point however the gov't will HAVE to replace detectors. I just know the former director of the government agency that will be soliciting for contracts is on DYSL's BOD. Also within 3 months we are likely to either get a dividend from Xcede or have a clear path as to to how it get's off DYSL's expenses. This may happen by 2-26.
I know it. And I never do it.
I just want to get it out there fast.
Often however, when I see the post is getting long winded and ideas are flowing as I'm typing, I'll copy it and if the post fails to get uploaded THEN I can paste it into notepad and still have whatever I copied.
I just don't feel like I'm communicating the same way when I'm writing in Word. So I lived dangerously and paid the price. Had I a dog he may have been kicked, so it's good I don't have one.
Back in 2011 ITI bought Meridian. Way back in 2009, Meridian had been hiring meteorologists and they sold subscriptions for WeatherPlot™ which was developed exclusively to serve the needs of agribusiness. ITI paid $5M for the entire Meridian deal which included 511 traffic info and MDSS enabling the efficient maintenance of roads and highways- such as snow plows- while optimizing resource use and reducing costs for gv't agencies.
The ClearPath Ag product seems to me to be the upgrade of WeatherPlot™.
Senior Online Editor for the CropLife Media Group has posted a prediction that "Revenue from precision ag services will reach $250 million" in 2015 after already growing by 32% from 2013 to 2014.
Abbas has predicted, in a sense, that iPerform will have $40 to $50M in revs- as a goal over next few years.
So this purchase of Meridian plus $6 to $8M investment by ITI may turn out to be , say $45M yearly return on a $14M investment. They would have bought it for .31 X revs.!!. High margin, recurring revs. sealed in contract.
None of this is factored in to the price of ITI. If there were a Meridian today with an updated Ag product and a deal with Agrian , F4F and BASF do you think the selling price would be the $3m or so ITI has put into ClearPath plus the $5M??No. Back when the deal was made, Precision Ag was a tiny market. So Meridian was priced appropriately to the times.
So if ITI were sold today, somewhere along the line their would be a premium just based on the BASF et,al. and the coming to age of Precision Ag- an era ushered in by the AHA! moment when Monsanto bought Climate Corp.
There is a video where Climate Corp discusses the $1.1M buy out. One year before there was a video of them celebrating a measly $50M seed money. That tells me how things can change. And their model doesn't sound that much different than ITI's ClearPath, except for the crop insurance, which was just a way to get it monitized while they sent salesman door to door to farmers.
I cannot tell you how #$%$ off I am that my post never made it to the board. In short, you must listen to the road map laid out by the CEO in the Q&A. Too much for me to re-post.
As early as 2-26-2015 there may be more specifics about "dividending out" Xcede. CEO believes government contract to be solicited "soon" and they are "hopeful" (Thermo) DYSL's OEM will get the contract which will supply "healthy revenues for years to come". There is a pipeline regarding filling the DichroTec chambers. Sounds like they are sending bids and proposals.
I was disappointed with Q over Q sequential revs and the loss. But back off non recurring and it's close to B.E.
My post that never made it to the board explained it all. I'm not going to try to post it. I'm #$%$ about that beyond belief. IMO. Just hold or add. CEO is going from generalities to specifics and I was delighted by that.The road map to growth was laid out.
Sully hinted that DichroTec investments will cause a temporary hit on profit. So that info should be "sold" and priced in as a non recurring expense. Going forward, DichroTec should be accretive so that and any other enticing news divulged in the CC, should lift DYSL. IMO.
With ever-tightening control over Helium-3 (meaning high prices and low availability), look for more activity in new scintillating materials, especially CLYC
This company ran in to some problems that have been addressed. I believe they can return to the growth trajectory they had enjoyed for quite some time.
Found this older article on Dynasil's Hilger.
X-rays leave an afterglow that blurs the image and Hilger, with Kent U. had a solution:
"Only a few crystal growers worldwide have been able to achieve this and it has given the company a competitive advantage. This has allowed Hilger to expand its market and seek customers in high-end applications of X-ray imaging such as air transport and sea cargo screening and medical diagnostic devices
As a result of the new product, derived from the collaboration with the University, the company has recruited new staff, including one new research scientist as well as other high-quality technical staff- a key requirement for future growth. The new material enables great market penetration for high-performance end sales to X-ray imaging companies throughout the world.
All of the company’s current customers are located outside the UK. Hence, all sales are export sales, mostly to the USA. The new material increased the annual sales turnover by c.£45k the first year it was launched in 2012 and is projected (based on past experience, by the company) to improve the annual sales turnover in the next three years’time to £250k, which corresponds to about 35% of the company’s annual export volume.
From recent CC:
One of the success stories of 2014 is that the lost revenue associated with these products was ultimately replaced by revenue from organic growth across our other commercial companies. For 2014, three of our companies, Optimetrics, EMF and Dynasil Fused Silica had record revenue results and Hilger had the largest revenue year under our ownership
The best news is that a new C.E.O. who came aboard in 2012, disposed of most non-core businesses and the one that really did seem too promising to fully part with, a hemostatic patch for use used when conventional sealing techniques are inadequate or impractical during general or cardiovascular surgery, was contributed to a joint venture, Xcede Technologies, 90% owned by DYSL and 10% owned by the investment arm of the Mayo Clinic. If this succeeds, which is possible considering its very large addressable market, DYSL may eventually spin its equity interest off to DYSL shareholders. As to the DYSL core operations, revenues actually grew enough in the latest quarter to almost offset the revenues eliminated through the divestitures, and the company was able to acquire a business that would expand capacity at its optics unit, a move that would have been unthinkable a year ago. With the company having moved from survival mode to growth mode, the income statement now near breakeven on an operating basis, and with a 0.57 price/sales ratio (versus a 1.51 industry median) DYSL seems to offer prospects for the home-run potential many cherish among sub-$3 stocks, and, of course, accompanied by the risks, less risk than a year ago, but still noteworthy given the embryonic state of DYSL’s commercial operations.
tried to post link but couldn't.
A LOW-PRICED CLASSIC
Subscribers who’ve been around for a while may recall we started out with a $3 share-price ceiling, which I gradually raised to $10 due to my sense that we had run out of decent-quality ideas in the below-$3 end of the market. Looking back, I definitely believe that was the right way to go but I can understand a lingering wish that we could still find interesting opportunities to get in at the lower-end of the single-digit price range.
Dynasil (DYSL), may be an opportunity for just that. I introduced it on 5/1/4. Since then, it’s down about 2% versus an 8% gain for the Russell 2000. That doesn’t sound so exciting, but remember, as poorly-correlated as the under-$10 segment of the market may be with well-known indexes, the under-$3 portion is probably more so. And besides, the information inefficiency of the under-$3 group is in play here: The market seems to have missed a very noteworthy event: DYSL, formerly in default, is now fully compliant with the terms of all borrowings.
Essentially, DYSL is a technology incubator. It gets paid to do research, mainly by the federal government but also by the SBIR (Small Business Innovation Research) program. Moreover, DYSL gets to retain intellectual property and, hence, has opportunities to commercialize for its own benefit technologies it develops. The good news is that as small as DYSL is (market cap: $23.5 million), it’s actually pretty big in terms of specialized expertise in sensing and measuring radiation, light or magnetism for use in security, industrial or medical applications. The bad news is, or rather was, that DYSL had in the past allowed itself to get stretched by ventures beyond its core area of expertise (which led to the financial strain).
Continued next post
5Yr. chart shows DYSL at inflection point for 50MA crossing over 200DMA. If ER is good,DYSL could get the crossover and a real bullish chart.GLTA
I think neilneiluhuhuh has been posting for years... and on DYSL
Some more backdrop. The highly qualified Iteris executive, IMO, most likely behind the BASF deal. Check the extensive high level employment history in precision ag.
He was Past Board Chair, Executive Committee of AgGateway’ Organization
More than 225 companies are now members of the organization, which is focused on eBusiness and precision agriculture.
I also noticed Iteris is attending two agricultural events just in Feb 2014. Interesting to see how they have ramped up attendance at Ag conventions. They had attended none prior to 7-2014.
I also noticed they are looking for an executive VP Corporate Development and they want some M&A experience. this leads me to suspect M&A may be down the road.
I also noticed Iteris partner Agrian has introduced, February 9, 2015,
" its secure, cloud-based ag data management platform. Several new capabilities have been released, all of which are designed to help growers, crop advisors, ag retailers and food processors manage, share and leverage farm data simply and efficiently."
However, still don't see anything about weather that could indicate Iteris's ClearPathAg.
Also noticed Monsanto's Climate Corp PR, December 9, 2014
Climate Corp. Acquires 640 Labs“Turning that data into valuable tools for farmers requires a combination of top software engineers, statisticians and specialized disciplines, from agronomists to climatologists. The 640 Labs team brings a combination of engineering and agricultural expertise that will complement and enhance the capabilities of our existing team.
I'm expecting some sort of deal with Iteris and Monsanto. They were mentioned in the Needham presentation.