CMD has been mentioned as the special ingredient. But , now that GTT has achieved scale, IMO, it's the service: Simplicity , speed , agility.
The incumbents are serving a meal similar to GTT but the sauce the incumbents use actually makes the meal taste worse. And guess what? The incumbents will not change their sauce. Too Bureaucratic.
The demand is there for what GTT built. Companies need to use the cloud and need the flexibility GTT offers. But with better sauce, it's a no brainer.
Low of $9.57. Two days later new high and up more than 33% off the low. I thought there would be a trading rang and consolidation for a lot longer. I was wrong about that. Looks higher. Amazing run! Will listen to Pacific Crest presentation.
Increased tensions between Russia and Ukraine drove oil futures toward their highest close in more than five months, with prices briefly topping $105 a barrel amid fears of disruptions to global oil supplies.
Crude oil for April delivery rallied $2.29, or 2.3%, to $104.88 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, on track for the highest settlement level for a most-active contract since late September, FactSet data show. The contract had touched a high of $105.22 early Monday.
Meanwhile, on the ICE Futures exchange, Brent crude for the same month jumped $2.27, or 2.1%, to $111.34 a barrel, set for their highest settlement since late December.
The sizable gains came as the crisis in Ukraine has deepened over the last few days.
I think the portfolio manager is saying that the value of the enterprise as it stands right now, today could be $11 to $12. It's not a future target so much as a present day valuation that the analysts postulate, when they crunch numbers and try to determine what the whole company is worth.
So,as the company further transforms itself, the stock price should go up a lot higher than those numbers.
But with the price per share going straight up lately, there has to be concern that the stock could be ahead of itself, so it's good to hear an analyst talking about an $11-$12 valuation.
In press release 12-24-2013
We are excited about ... our optics group, which has been experiencing an uptake in business over the past 18 months as a result of both new product development and an investment in sales management.
More from same release
"..this divestiture... marks a key step in our strategy to reduce debt and operational expenses and return Dynasil to positive EBITDA and profitability," ...we do not foresee further asset sales. We expect to ... our bank debt in [to be] completely paid off over the next 15 months."
"We expect the ... divestitures... and improvements in operational performance of our remaining businesses will result in a significant turnaround ....
Beth Lilly, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds.
...an undiscovered, emerging company with talented leadership and catalysts to grow into a big cap.Check out today's headlines and audio of radio show.She likes M2M and sees orbc going higher.
Breaking news on FOX
President Obama calls for whopping $300B commitment for US roads, bridges and mass transit systems — but as much as half comes from a tax plan that has bleak prospects on the Hill.
As an ITI shareholder I'd like to see half of that actually pass.
TELECOM & INTERNET | Staff Reporter, Hong Kong
Published: 14 Jan 11
"The growth in bandwidth, usage, and in particular web usage continues; nearing 50 per cent growth year- on-year. Fueled by cloud-based Apps, social media, and mobile, the pressure on IT departments with respect to bandwidth and web usage, continues to grow,"
Price per byte falling BUT that's offset by growing usage.
seems likely for a while. But it's good to see the successful tests of the recent lows.
There will be some consolidation of the spectacular gains. That will go on for a while, I would expect.
Looking forward more good things to come in a solid CC.Good luck to longs.IMO.
Next Q is Q 4. If you click the headline news "RMG Showing positive signs" CEO says Q 4 is a busy time for RMG.
If you click the "RMG Networks' CEO Garry McGuire to Present at Needham Growth Conference", headline there is a link to that presentation. It's worth the time to listen. The drop, according to CEO was due to a "one time anomaly".
The insider buying is fairly positive.
I do think a rebound in the stock price is coming. I've taken a modest position and I'll add if I see a bounce in the price per share. Any move up could be abrupt because of the lack of resistance.
There is a one year $10 target and, IMO, it looks good to hit it before then, if results are good and CC is promising.IMO. Good Luck!
Shorts, if in fact there were any, got destroyed.
But please, if you want to re-short, please, please, do come back any time. For another #$%$ whipppin'.lol!!!!!!!!
Bullish engulfing candle. Huge reaction off the lows. Solid earnings on the way.This baby is locked and loaded. All IMO.
BTW today I saw 2 or 3 sites- perhaps ventriloquists for the Motely Fools??- recently recommending a short against GTT based on it's being "overbought". Poor call, unless you were incredibly quick. . Must be really embarrassing.
The good thing is every fool that shorts becomes a potential buyer when they cover. Any long can potentially sell but all shorts HAVE to buy. The giant sucking sound you hear on earnings day will have to do with that compulsory divestiture.IMO.The result will be an even more fervent stock price reaction to any perceived good news.
...if in fact that was what it was. Maybe I'm calling it too soon but the sharp move down is over and there just doesn't seem to be enough sellers to shake out at these prices. They are holding out for higher prices and this is another way of saying bulls are regaining charge.
Maybe the last weak hand who bought cluelessly on a web site reccomendation has now left the arena. Once a bottom is firmly "in" on this short term move, we'll need to see a day where it closes up and near the top of it's daily range. Then we can get to the mid term trading range top. At some point we squeeze shorts , if they actually exist here-- till it hurts. Earnings will be a terrible thing for them. IMO.
Article today re natural gas:
Gartman cites short squeezes in wheat and crude oil back in 2008 as recent examples of large short squeezes that caused those respective commodities to shoot up in price; West Texas Intermediate crude oil, for example, shot up from $100 per barrel to $125 during one such short squeeze, says Gartman. In June of 2008, it reached a record $143.68 per barrel.
“We’re seeing the same thing in natural gas right now,” says Gartman. “We got up to nearly $6.50 on the spot month. If you told me that it [will go] up to $10, I would not be surprised. When you get to short squeezes, anything – truly anything – is possible.”
Gartman believes the days of $2, $3, or even low-$4/Btu natural gas are behind us. “Once we get through the winter,” says Gartman, “we’re going to have less than one trillion cubic feet of nat gas in storage, which is a very, very tight circumstance. You could actually get down to 900 million feet of natural gas, which is just – I hate to use the word – an unconscionable and frightening level.”
Just as an example, the target is $400M in revs.
That says they plan to be up by almost 4 X from $107M reported the year 2012. But with a target of 40- to 45% gross margin applied to that larger base you now have gross profit of $160M to $180M. So in 2012 the gross profit was $31M.
The gross margin target is now over 5X to almost 6X that of the year 2012.
Yet SG&A expense will flat line as a % of revs.
So what's more striking, the 4X revs target or the over 5 to almost 6X increase in gross profit? To me it's the gross profit. Especially when considered against the predicted SG&A .But it takes a tiny bit of math applied to what is said in the the CC.
Now take organic growth.
Organic growth in 2012 was low single. So that means an organic growth that contributed negligibly in 2012.
It's going higher, towards 10%, according to their targets.
They are saying that the negligible amount they had in 2012 goes to maybe $40M if goals are hit. . They are saying now, that once organic goals are hit along with top line goals- about 37% of ALL of 2012's revs will be constantly ringing in- just due to organic growth.
There are more examples I could offer and you could check.
GTT has a new offering based on the new network size, based on the new acquisitions, so they look at the mix of deals coming in and these are the ratios they see unfolding. Play around with them and keep in mind they have a history of hitting ALL their targets.
These trends toward improving metrics will impact all through 2014 and beyond.
This thing goes to $17 and beyond, imo
... we are adding new business at greater than 60% gross margins and we are churning out ..30% gross margin range.
Gross margin of 34.5% expanded from 29.7%.
Lower margin off-net services are churning out, being replaced by higher margin, on-net services.
...we would expect a business that would be in the 40% to 45% gross margin and maintaining a business in the 15% to 20% SG&A as a percentage of revenue.
So our overall base of revenue is now more profitable.
We now expect to drive double-digit organic growth
over the next three years our strategy is to achieve a 10% organic growth rate as we grow our business to reach our $400 million and $100 million EBITDA growth, 10% on the top line, 15% to 20% on the bottom line.
we will be prepared to do another acquisition in the first half of next year.
we see the general revenue trend in our industry to be up as traffic [volume demand] outpaces the price per bit declines.
..almost every enterprise in the globe needs more capacity and has a reason to replace their incumbent solution, to say I need more bandwidth at better speeds, more flexibly delivered that can scale with my needs.
Brian Thompson paraphrased:
If you look back six months ago, you will see a huge change in this company in moving to acquire more sophisticated service package that we’re offering to people
GTT is just at the beginning of a great future, in its role in serving people’s needs in the telecommunication and information technology business
Probably the most promising factor that will affect change over the next six months to 18 months is the increasing demand for cloud computing
Thanks. Great feedback. The problem with selling upon attainment of an anayst's price target is two fold. First, you may need to look at the trend, as far as price targets themselves go. Analysts have to assess and reasses based on how things are and how they tend to unfold dynamically.The first target for GTT by any analyst was $6. Then $8. Then $10. Then, even $17. So I'm seeing sort of a trend there. At some point the trend stops but until it does, it may just be my friend.
The next problem centers around the idea that the reasons for hitting any target in the first place may be the underlying issue of improving revs, margins, new contracts and an improved service offering and value proposition.Those factors don't suddenly cease to be pertinent because a target is hit. They still function.They may even be at an inflection point. For example, in last CC even management didn't expect margins to improve quite as rapidly as they did.
So do you sell a company with a trend towards growing revenue base and with an improving set of metrics applied to that base, such as margins, (gross, net EBITDA margins) and so forth, plus improving churn, a having a recently significantly improved value proposition--do you sell it based on a target being hit?
Short term, maybe, if you can find a better investment or if you need a rebalance. I'll admit to some of that rebalancing. But there is always the risk that the underlying factors that cased the attainment of the price target stay well in effect or actually accelerate and the stock goes to $13 or $17 without you.
In my next post I'll just summarize some things said in the last CC.