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Daegis Inc Message Board

friendofthetrend 143 posts  |  Last Activity: 20 hours ago Member since: Jan 5, 2001
  • friendofthetrend by friendofthetrend Jun 20, 2016 8:56 AM Flag

    I wish I were able to attend tomorrow's Annual Meeting. I wish people would press for an update of the website. It was good for it's day and had some compelling and valuable information. But a modern site is necessary for a company associated with the latest treatments. People looking for $25M medical equipment shop online like everyone else. No eye-catching picture of a Mevion or Icon?

    (The website is an extension of the brand image and product. The ASHS "product" has a lot to do with acquiring the use of some of mankind's best answers to cancer treatment, helping health providers help patients live, modernizing treatment centers, being on the cusp, gaining prestige. Another aspect of the ASHS brand is easing a difficult journey toward a better future, being a reliable, credible, long term, stable, attentive, knowledgeable trusted adviser- a steady hand. I'm not feeling any of this oozing from the pages of the website. Another thing: restraint is good but it needs more of a sales pitch going on. A call to action.
    Investors like sizzle too. Maybe the opening focal point should be the new "brand equity" ASHS has earned with the Orlando opening--- highlight a testimony regarding that installation. Emphasize the unique, valuable experience ASHS offers. Relish in that success for a while. Mention the Biden Cancer Initiative and associate the brand with the larger picture.)

    I notice Providence Proton therapy has a logo. There's a feed to proton therapy news. Their website is copy-written 2015. ASHS is 2010. More could be done.

  • friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Jun 19, 2016 6:41 AM Flag

    When MD was a new product Mitek needed channel partners--sort of wholesalers/ distributors to get to market.

    I'm thinking that these intermediaries took as much as possible and dictated terms because they had the power to demand as much margin as possible.

    Maybe they demanded contracts that , still to this day, leave little room for Mitek to up prices.

    So we see recent mention of a billion checks saving a billion dollars for banks on deposit costs but we do not see anywhere near that going to Mitek.

    The new verify products are being sold direct. I'm beginning to see why.

    MD is useful to Mitek as a sort of vehicle for circumventing the too powerful channel partners. There is no question in anyone's mind that Mitek was the smartest kid on the block to come up with the idea of MD and in spite of all the lawsuits, there's no denying the product is a winner.

    Mitek goes direct to their existing customers- 5000 banks- and offers solutions that banks want - solutions that make the pie bigger for everyone but the channel partners.

    You prefer to do business with someone you know. The channel partners took a big cut but they slipped Mitek into all the financial institutions so now everyone knows Mitek

    One of MD's biggest contributions to the business model is this ability to go direct to the banks. That's my theory. "You've come a long way, baby!"

  • friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Jun 18, 2016 7:12 AM Flag

    Interesting thread.

    You have your leadership position via MD. It's brand recognition and reputation- a gold standard. You have an avenue to your market.

    You have your IP. You want to leverage the relationship with banks.

    You say, "let's create some value and a bigger piece of the pie for everyone". You introduce your other products. If the banks go along, everyone is happy. If they don't, Mitek really has no recourse but to raise the price on the products being used, namely Mobile Deposit.

    Just to go crazy raising the price on MD, however, would be to jeopardize the future. People are using MD more and more WHEN they HAVE checks to deposit BUT they have less and less checks to deposit. So MD is not the future UNLESS it is used to leverage existing relationships.

    This is bit abstract of away to look at it but they need to build upon a sustainable competitive advantage--going up on price with a dead end product might not be the way to do it.

    MD is NOT dead ended if it's used as a foot in the door. You ride the product NOT to its end but to a new beginning.

    People like to do business with someone they already know, so the scale is tipped to Mitek because of the weight of MD.

    This is why I have been saying the business model is to build on relationships established via MD and provide solutions that make the pie bigger for everyone including shareholders of MITK.

  • friendofthetrend by friendofthetrend Jun 17, 2016 11:12 AM Flag

    Interesting classified add and recent post on Iteris linkedin

    (DAILY NEWS) DBE Sub-Consultant Opportunity for Caltrans District 12 (D12) Integrated Corridor Management...
    Iteris is pursuing an opportunity for the State of California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) to provide consultation, research, professional and technical services required to design Integrated Corridor Management (ICM) for Orange County Triangle projects.

    ***
    The ICM project was budgeted for $4.5 B in 2014 so I just thought I'd post this.

  • Reply to

    Conference call

    by biotechisfun Jun 17, 2016 7:52 AM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Jun 17, 2016 9:01 AM Flag

    Thanks. Good summary.10% of TAM (of $1.2B) is $120M. When a whole new market comes along and you are ready for it things can get to an inflection point and the future can change dramatically better. So holding and adding makes sense. Those who don't like the strategy or who don't like waiting can sell to stronger hands. I can forsee a long long period of growth ahead.

  • friendofthetrend by friendofthetrend Jun 17, 2016 7:28 AM Flag

    I don't want to get ahead of myself, but I hope we'll have some interesting things to comment on in the not too distant future. But there are other things like some of the significant crop protection deals that we think can really move the needle and we're working hard on this.

  • friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Jun 16, 2016 6:13 PM Flag

    The losses are planned in and priced in to the stock. If you like the strategy that means you accept the temporary losses as a component OF the long term strategy. They have lots of cash and a strong balance sheet.

    They beat on revs by over $.7M. They had a $.01 more loss. I like the stock, love the plan to build another business segment, so I'd love to add.

    In 4 more Qs there will not be any more losses and there will still be a lot of cash and a strong balance sheet with big positive cash flow and really nice EPS.

    If you like the plan then you can see the value creation. What good is EPS if you cannot grow it higher and create a more valuable company? What they are doing is fine with me. Building value.

  • There are over 100 Large Crop protection type enterprises. 15% say no after trials. 85% express interest. Some of that 85% commit to sales right away. Each one that commits produces avg. a $1M in annual sales at 70 to 80% margin.If they convert half that's $40M. Completely locked in, predictable, recurring, sticky revenues of the kind that would put ITI in another industry with higher multiples and metrics by which to determine price per share.

    But these types of customers represent only about a third of the addressable market. So the other 2/3s may bring the total way higher than $40M.

    So this is consistent with Abbas's remarks years ago in which he stated Ag would be a business segment on par with Transportation. So it seems to me to be progressing but due to it being a new market and a long sales cycle, there will be a pretty long lag in monetising what they seem to be accomplishing with these trials and deals.

    If you buy that they are progressing this is a triple in 2018 and beyond. A lot of questions on the call indicates a lot of interest in this comany.

  • Reply to

    Back to $1.70s (or lower) folks

    by barney67895 Jun 14, 2016 9:19 AM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Jun 16, 2016 1:10 PM Flag

    What we have is a lag between the major Ag deals being announced and the slow but consistent ramp in quality repeat revenue as this scales. Right now, Ag revenue is barely moving the needle but I think the ramp could gather steam and go on for years and years. I can see this at $15 a share over time. It's a 2018 story.

  • friendofthetrend by friendofthetrend Jun 16, 2016 12:54 PM Flag

    Up on 137K shares the day before report. I believe the SST deal is VERY good. Not so much for immediate income but SST is a major player in back end structure/ cloud / digital Ag.

    ****
    In major report to the Iowa AgState Group
    THE DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
    OF ROW CROP AGRICULTURE:

    "The Leaders in the segment are John Deere & Co, DuPont Pioneer, Monsanto/The Climate Corp., SST Software, and WinField / Land O’Lakes.

    The report says, SST platforms "help overcome the issue of lack of standards in the industry, incompatibility, and fragmentation of the services provided to farmers."

    The report calls for creation of "an independent, farmer-controlled data warehouse for farm level data
    and aggregated agronomic data which can be used to better serve farmer participants"

    The vision is to create "A FARMER-CENTRIC STRATEGY

    What will "drive" that vision is:

    "the establishment of a cloud based data warehouse for farmers that is coordinated with ag retailers.
    "Potential options include SST and Amazon Web Services."

    SST had over 82 Million acres under management at the time of the report. So it seems Clearag is locking itself into a major player. and it will be interesting to hear comments in CC on this major step forward.

  • Reply to

    Information?

    by rosplockt Jun 14, 2016 4:08 PM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Jun 14, 2016 6:06 PM Flag

    Click corporate, click investor center, scroll almost to the bottom, click Company PowerPoint.

    I think they are mentioning the capture of 15 to 30% of the market for proton. Aren't they? If that could happen the company is going to be inking a lot of deals.

    They had a golden era for signing Gammas. 4 in one year. That market matured. If they are going into the golden years for proton, it's something to think about. It's a whole new era. Possibly it will dwarf the years of dividend and $6 a share.

    It's a new value proposition and there's just no comparison to 15% of Gamma market.

    Of course it would take many years but it's really a whole untapped market replacing a tapped out market. The company might be valued more favorably if they can show that they have a chance to grab 15%.

    I'm googling around and see there is a competitor in Providence Proton Therapy. This means a company was started to do what ASHS is doing and provide off balance sheet way of using a proton. That means there's a market opportunity. ASHS is in a good competitive situation, I would think.They already have one up and running.

    There should be more insider buys.

  • This is happening on volume and ahead of ER, just before the last two presentations were without the CEO being there.

    I'm wondering the cause of pullback and how far it might go. Checking the 5 and even 10 year chart it looks like price and 50DMA often gets a little too far ahead of 200 DMA but the overall trend is up. Big bounce coming soon enough, imo.

    At some point I'll get greedy. May call IR first. Look at insider activity. A year ago the prices paid were up to $2.20:

    Sep 4, 2015 SCHMIDT ANDREW C
    Officer
    10,000 Direct Purchase at $2.20 - $2.2 per share. 22,0002
    Aug 26, 2015 DALY KEVIN
    Officer
    10,000 Indirect Purchase at $2.09 - $2.09 per share. 21,0002
    Aug 25, 2015 DALY KEVIN
    Officer
    5,000 Indirect Purchase at $2.05 - $2.05 per share. 10,0002
    Aug 24, 2015 MINER GREG
    Director
    10,000 Direct Purchase at $2.05 - $2.05 per share. 21,0002
    Aug 24, 2015 DALY KEVIN
    Officer
    5,200 Indirect Purchase at $2.05 - $2.08 per share. 11,0002
    Aug 20, 2015 DALY KEVIN
    Officer
    23,600 Indirect Purchase at $2.02 - $2.09 per share. 48,0002
    Aug 20, 2015 THOMAS TOM
    Director
    15,000 Direct Purchase at $2.05 - $2.05 per share. 31,0002
    Aug 19, 2015 DALY KEVIN
    Officer
    4,300 Indirect Purchase at $2 - $2 per share. 8,6002
    Aug 18, 2015 DALY KEVIN
    Officer
    10,000 Indirect Purchase at $2.01 - $2.01 per share. 20,0002
    Aug 18, 2015 MINER GREG
    Director
    10,000 Direct Purchase at $2 - $2 per share. 20,0002
    Aug 14, 2015 MINER GREG
    Director

    Deal momentum is about to swell. ClearAg is going EBITDA positive in time and will be a big driver of value. Checking siteworthtraffic, clearAg is gathering a LOT of steam as far as unique visitors to the site goes (93, triple from when I first checked a short while ago). They don't show the app statistics but say that feature is coming soon.

  • Reply to

    Insider Buy?

    by rosplockt Jun 10, 2016 7:31 PM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Jun 10, 2016 9:15 PM Flag

    It was 1000@$2.04 bought on 6-06 and 500 @ $2.08 bought on 6-8. $3079 is not very much but nice to see. What about other executives and board members? Maybe there will be another round of buying ahead of the investor presentation.

    I noticed an island bottom completed 6-4. That hopefully ends the pullback from over $2.50.

    "The Island Bottom occurs when the price "gaps" below a specific price range for a number of days and then is confirmed when the price "gaps" above the original range."

    Any more insider buys would be appreciated. The rounded bottom is "in". The island bottom looks promising. Golden cross looks good too. Just need to seal it in with a bit more buying.

    Then we should get the investor presentation along with 8 straight Qs of decent results due to ramp of Orlando. Another site or two PR's and it should be a thing of beauty.

  • friendofthetrend by friendofthetrend Jun 10, 2016 10:36 AM Flag

    A few twists and turns but on it's way to better things. Thank you Mr. Nurthern for winning that award. Many drivers of value mentioned in the call. Bigger markets, bigger head counts better products and platforms, more EBITDA more cash Flow, some untapped relationships Mckesson, Toro, CDK etc. Churn and margins being addressed.

  • I posted a reply to the streetsweeper rebuff article posted by Cliffside at seeking Alpha. Spent a little time on it. My 2 cents.

  • friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Jun 7, 2016 4:02 PM Flag

    Could be significant once it's in full gear. SST: "Today, our system manages site-specific data for over 100 million acres spanning 23 countries."

    Maybe clearAg can eventually plug into SST's existing ecosystem with the full array of clearAg products.

    SST has some interesting Vids posted. I notice right after this announcement a surge in unique visitors to clearag. Recently the rate has grown by 20,000 or so per year. Very interesting pick up in visitors.

  • Reply to

    Don't mess with StreetSweeper

    by truth_exposure Jun 3, 2016 11:08 AM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Jun 4, 2016 6:35 AM Flag

    Whenever anyone recommends a stock you should check their site to see what the disclosures are. I think there are laws that require disclosure. You can have a bad article written against MITK and then short the stock. There is no legal recourse anyone can take if you comply fully with the law and openly tell them of your self interest.

    I think the law allows you to make money off anyone who fails to read the disclosure and who is unaware of your blatant self interest.

    In defense of this law it allows people to express their ideas about a stock and not fear being sued.

    I read the article and the disclosure and bought more MITK because I like their business model, which is to leverage the relationship they have via the core competencies MITK has in MD and design more products and more importantly buy companies with patents on products that the banks want and fit with MITK's competencies.

    I think there is a long runway and the stock could go up a hundred times over the years and decades.

    What MITK has and will always have over the next 20 years is the relationship with banks as provider of high roi banking saas software. MD will make a few millions but the relationship with all these banks will make a lot more millions over the decades.

    Relationships are both their moat and their competitive advantage. You don't have to have the best product but a good one that banks want and a direct channel to the banks--thanks to MD success, they now have a direct channel to the FIs. I believe their patents are super solid BTW.

    MITK always goes higher than anyone imagines and sells of lower than anyone imagines but in my estimation the business model should drive value and PPS long term.

    Read 100 baggers, $8.99 if you have a Kindle.

  • Reply to

    Miteks CFO Russell Clark spoke up.

    by nadullah62 Jun 2, 2016 4:21 PM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Jun 3, 2016 11:27 PM Flag

    Regarding insider selling, CFO Russell Clark says Thornton's sales were done for estate planning purposes, that DeBello's are part of a structured selling plan, and that his were done to help pay for his kids' college expenses. He insists Mitek has no remaining IP issues, and defended the strength of its patent portfolio (features 26 patents, along with others in the pipeline).

  • Reply to

    Don't mess with StreetSweeper

    by truth_exposure Jun 3, 2016 11:08 AM
    friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Jun 3, 2016 11:23 PM Flag

    So, altogether, we think Mitek stock will bobble and stumble by about 50 percent in the near-term. Even then the company would be unlikely to justify such a high valuation.

    * Important Disclosure: The owners of TheStreetSweeper hold a short position in MITK and stand to profit on any future declines in the stock price.

    THE STREET SWEEPER'S OWNERS DO HOLD STOCKS IN COMPANIES THAT ARE REVIEWED ON THIS WEBSITE and will regularly take long or short positions in the securities of any publicly traded company at any time before or after the company is the subject of, or otherwise discussed or referred to in articles or other writing on our website. When THE STREET SWEEPER OWNERS have an interest in securities discussed in investigative articles on the website, we will disclose this AT THE BOTTOM OF EACH ARTICLE. We will not knowingly omit this disclosure in any of our stories.

    THESE POSITIONS WILL AFFECT OUR OBJECTIVITY. Each investor must make his or her own decisions based on independent research and their judgment of the market as well as consultation with a qualified licensed investment professional.

  • friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Jun 3, 2016 10:36 PM Flag

    Fool me once shame on seeking alpha. Fool me twice, shame on me.

DAEG
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