Run-up is to "price in" good earnings. If ER exceeds what's being priced in, it'll go higher after ER. If AXGN has good earnings but just meets what's being priced in it'll go into a trading range that reflects the facts.
If you are thinking of adding here, go back and check what happened on the chart just before last ER and the days and weeks after. It ran up in anticipation, then fell back into a range.
Bottom line is: revenues are building to a point way, way higher than where they are now and it's a good growth stock to be in, long term. IMO.
I think it's significant that in all the years this stock's been around, they chose now to go on the road.
It's a good buy at half book ($3.69), there have been may buys by insiders in the past at this level and higher and it may be a good time to at least think about backing up the truck.
I found this transcript at seeking alpha:
Q2 2014 Earnings Conference Call
August 14, 2014 3:00 PM ET
Hi guys. I have a question for you maybe it’s a question that Craig can answer or you Dr. Bates. ...the stock trades half of book. Obviously there was some confidence in the company because I see some of the directors buying the stock. Frankly I’m a little surprised that the Turkish director didn’t buy any stock in the private placement...
But in any case... why do you think the company trades at half of what I think its tangible book, if I’m not mistaken? And what can the company do to perhaps close that gap? To help close the gap, obviously I’m saying?
We have no knowledge as to why ...there is that that gap or imbalance between the two. I think what we try to do is run the company and manage the company as well as we can. And I think what we’re doing now would be the proton initiatives and as that takes effect, I think the value – you’ll see the value in the future increase above what the book is, because I think there are a lot of people that have been waiting for a number of years for the proton initiative to start.
In that I think each month we get closer to that happening. Now we’re within 18 months of first treatment at our first centers. So we’re very excited about that. And we’re hopeful that people will see the value in that. And it should increase our EBITDA significantly once we’re up and running. So, I think the metrics will drive the stock up, that’s our hope.
May sign 1-2 protons and 1-2 Gamma within next 8 mos. Going on the road to investors. Just needs a little more EPS. Orlando will help with that in 6 mos. or so. All multiples and comparables other than EPS are great, or will be great once the EPS is there. Been picking up shares.
BTW, there's a new book out on Amazon about how proton will "revolutionize cancer treatment". GLTA
I think the business model is similar to a "search fund", with Xcede the target.
Here's an article:
Search funds are financial vehicles typically set up by one or two people to raise money from investors toward searching for—and eventually acquiring—a small business. In one sense, they might be loosely described as micro–private equity firms, except that unlike Bain Capital, the average search funder isn’t looking to make a quick profit off buying, gutting, and reselling a struggling business. He’s interested instead in taking a shortcut to the top of the management ladder and staying there for the long haul.
Usually a search fund buys a non tech, existing businesses with existing sales but DYSL is going after a business with a pretty amazing potential for sales revenue.
So they are both an incubator and a search fund. They don't have the funds for Xcede so, as a search fund would do, they have to be "set up to raise money from investors".
As an incubator, DYSL can run the Xcede business until the value is such that they can hopefully cash in at a greater amount than the costs involved. Looking at ARTH, they have moved along to where the value has recently doubled.
So this is a long term and fairly risky process. It's important to have success in the other segments.
I don't think it's a risky as what ARTH is doing-- with all eggs in the same basket. DYSL can exit and still go on as an incubator of such business like CLYC and anything else they may develop and they will go on with other segments.
I think the only thing we really need to worry about is that the strategy will actually work in the way they seem to think it will. We will probably have to hold about a year before we really find out and much happens with the share price.
ITI keeps a lid on profits because the "one off" money is going to ClearAg. But they are moving to another, globally scalable, high margin, subscription based, repeat business, '"toll collector" model and if it works, the multiples will be different when determining PPS.
They seem to be making progress, towards producing, really, a whole new segment backed by a lot of patents. To get EBITDA positive with ClearAG will mean a world of difference for the PPS. I just hope we get that stage of the game quickly and don't get excuses:
QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS
Jeff Martin - ROTH Capital Partners - Analyst
Andy, when do you expect some of the agricultural contracts to start contributing to revenue?
Andy Schmidt - Iteris, Inc. - VP Finance, CFO
Well, right now they do. And we are probably close to about the million in recurring revenue as we sit today. And again, what's a little bit hard
about recurring revenue models is that the recognized revenue takes a while to build. It's a bit of a waterfall look. So we look forward.
We went to market July, August, and our pipeline has been growing steadily. As I said, we've got over 20 specific contracts in eval, others that are
clear of eval and are in a closing process.
So what we are shooting for is get this business up to about $3 million to $4 million a quarter in recurring revenue. At that point, then the model
starts taking shape and you can start seeing the gross margin profile and the op income profile. That can come sooner than later. But we are looking
at maybe 4 to 8 quarters to really show positive EBITDA in this business without a lot of pull on our cash balance.
The PPS will often move 6 months ahead of the actual positive EBITDA mentioned above.
As the trusted authority in high-quality food and beverage manufacturing for 75 years, Lucerne Foods is the private label and co-pack partner of choice for countless household-name retailers, food service companies, distributors, and national brands.
Backed by a $57 billion dollar Fortune 100 parent company, Lucerne Foods is a world-class supplier with over 18 manufacturing plants spanning a breadth of categories.
We provide an unmatched level of collective industry expertise, manufacturing capabilities, and economies of scale.
ClearAG blog has a post indicating Lucerne or it's backer may be a ClearAg customer. Sobyes or Agropur may be the parent company but I'm not really sure right now. In any case according to the presentation at Roth, there are 20 or so deals in various stages. There's a transcript of the presentation now.
The legendary pop singer cancelled two shows on April 7 in Atlanta, citing the flu.
But TMZ is now reporting that it was a drug overdose that landed Prince in the hospital in Illinois on April 15, not the flu. The gossip website reports
Sources tell TMZ that Prince was given what the site called a “save shot” to reverse the effects of an opiate overdose. Naloxone, sold under the brand name Narcan, is a life-saving drug that is used as an antidote for opiate overdoses.
Don't feel bad. Hemingway Fitzgerald, Keats, Faulkner, Austen, Einstein,Churchill, JFK, Da Vinci, Yeats, Franklin.--they would all tell you, when assessing intelligence, don't put much too steak in spelling, because they were all poor spellers.
CCS's net income increased from $68 million in 2014 to $87 million in 2015 (28% increase)
CCS increased the generation of specified tax credits by 66% for the CCS owners' accounts from $47 million to $78 million
Lease payments made by tax-equity investors remained consistent in 2015 at $3-to-$4 per ton; however, distributions were lower as capital was strategically used to 1) generate tax credits on five retained refined coal ("RC") facilities, 2) install eight additional RC facilities, and 3) fund working capital needs to assure adequate supplies of key chemical additives for future operations
CCS increased production of RC by 35% and the number of installed RC facilities by 38%
Expanded market coverage through new broker network in mid-2015 and built a more robust and sustainable sales approach to attract new tax-equity investors
Expects at least $650 million in tax equity investor payments between 2016 and 2021 based exclusively on the 12 RC leased facilities in place today and assuming no modifications of contracts, non-renewals or early terminations
Key 2015 Accomplishments
delivery of 41 equipment systems recognizing revenues of $59 million and mitigating potential financial exposure to warranty and other performance obligations
closure of its McKeesport, PA fabrication facility to better focus its Emissions Control product offerings
Eliminated or tabled speculative R&D investments and expenditures such as Clearview Analytics, liquefied natural gas flaring capture, and post-combustion CO2 capture
Developed a more efficient and effective organization in key functional areas, such as accounting, compliance and sales
Implemented a cost containment strategy including headcount reductions in 2015 and announced new initiatives this month to reduce costs further in 2016
Current on filing its financial statements and expects to file its first quarter 2016 Form 10-Q on time on May 10, 2016
Began process for re-listing on The Nasdaq
Dumb mistake. Thanks.
I thought I had screened the search for articles within last week and didn't even notice.
April 15, 2015
NAME OF REPORTING PERSONS
Greywolf Event Driven Master Fund
AGGREGATE AMOUNT BENEFICIALLY OWNED BY EACH REPORTING PERSON
PERCENT OF CLASS REPRESENTED BY AMOUNT IN ROW (9)
This was a newly disclosed position for the hedge fund .The filing was required due to activity on April 15, 2015
So BlackRock wants a 19% piece because the 11% they had in 2013 was apparently not enough. That's interesting, given the timing-- before today's ER.
I bought on the chart; it's very good but not exactly a perfect screaming buy. I went over the last investor presentation and I can't tell if it's ingredients for chicken soup or chicken s***. It's downright scary.
I hope BlackRock and Greywolf did some homework.
Also Tricadia Capital Management LLC added +1,204,264 shares recently to take 5.47% stake. Wellington reduced but still is holding just over half of what they had.
Overall, there is somewhat less sweat on the rosary beads because institutional activity is really quite comforting. It makes it seems like a listing on Nasdaq is realistic--soon. I hope they give some more confirmation on that scenario.
Just my 2 cents.GLTA
Why the heavy volume and the big" up days" one month before this report ? Then no real selling 2-3 days ahead of the ER, even though there's been a run up.
Maybe it will be, as you say, "news driven" but recent action could be the result of people who don't have to wait for the news. Maybe they already have a pretty good idea of what it will be and have positioned for it and driven the price higher about a month ago. Hope so. Just bought a little.
...pre earnings. Hope it works. I'll find out soon enough. Seems to have completed a bottoming process after December 31, 2015 when Blackrock reported upping it's stake to 19%.
DYSL has hit the doldrums. May and June should have news. As you say, ER and new web site in about a month. $7M in funding should come around a month later.
Funding for Xcede, a small profit, a nice increase in Optics revs. CLYC is in 3 OEM products. Another one would be good. Some deals out of DichroTec would be nice. The backlog number and any mention of progress on new DYSL products would be good.
Maybe they will sell a segment or sell some patents I don't know, but they mention coming up with a "strategic plan through 2020." So the web site will probably tie into that. I hope they can generate a little enthusiasm among the shareholders. 2020 is just short of eternity. Dead money is not good. Let's stoke the interest with some tangible sense of a bright future.
It costs money just to keep up a 60 patent portfolio and RMD can't shrink too much, so I hope they review it all and keep shareholders informed.
Interesting Seekingalpha take out today on RPXC and patent trolls
"it appears that Congress has finally had enough of the patent troll problem, and has introduced a litany of patent reform bills."
04/13/2016 | 07:40am EDT
By Targeted News Service
ALEXANDRIA, Va., April 13 -- Iteris, Santa Ana, California, has been assigned a patent (9,311,605) developed by two co-inventors for "modeling of time-variant grain moisture content for determination of preferred temporal harvest windows and estimation of income loss from harvesting an overly-dry crop."