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Newcrest Mining Limited Message Board

frmrskmgr 25 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 18, 2014 7:01 PM Member since: Feb 15, 2005
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  • frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Nov 18, 2014 7:01 PM Flag

    BHP has pretty much been flying under the tariff radar for most products sold to China. UBS has issued a report on the impact on BHP, and it is pretty insignificant since most products are already low or tariff-free.

  • frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Nov 18, 2014 6:59 PM Flag

    No. Because of BHP's large volumes, the cost to hedge would be prohibitive and counter productive. BHP is stronger than potential counter-parties. From BHP's annual report:

    We seek to maintain a solid ‘A’ credit rating,
    supported by our portfolio risk management strategy.
    As part of this strategy, commodity prices and
    currency exchange rates are not hedged, and
    wherever possible we take the prevailing market
    price. We use Cash Flow at Risk analysis to monitor
    volatilities and key financial ratios. Credit limits and
    review processes are required to be established for all
    customers and financial counterparties. The Financial
    Risk Management Committee oversees these as
    described in sections 3.15 and 3.16. Note 29
    ‘Financial risk management’ to the Financial
    Statements outlines our financial risk management
    strategy.

  • Reply to

    BBl

    by ruthless11953 Nov 7, 2014 2:45 PM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Nov 9, 2014 9:41 AM Flag

    About 10%, or $6. for the same share of the combined companies paying the same dividend. Yield of 4.6% instead of 4.1% for no difference in risk. No one knows for sure why the discount..

  • Reply to

    why the gap up

    by luckkels Nov 7, 2014 9:40 AM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Nov 7, 2014 10:10 AM Flag

    From MarketWatch: Among major stock moves, mining shares advanced as most metals prices headed north. Shares of Rio Tinto PLC RIO, +2.36% RIO, +1.17% RIO, +2.55% picked up 2.8%, Glencore PLC GLEN, +1.85% GLCNF, +0.60% added 2.7% and BHP Billiton PLC BLT, +2.95% BHP, +2.76% BHP, +2.10% gained 2.4%.

  • Reply to

    kmp options ?? whats the date ??

    by missedlooo Oct 30, 2014 11:22 AM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Oct 31, 2014 8:53 PM Flag

    The Proposal says that no election date deadline has been set, and that you will receive an election form and have five days to submit it. The meeting is 11/20/14.

  • Reply to

    BHP Should Buy

    by tricknixon7 Oct 23, 2014 8:50 AM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Oct 30, 2014 10:01 PM Flag

    How did that work out for them last time they tried to buy potash?

  • Reply to

    Roll Credits Please

    by cubetroll Oct 27, 2014 10:34 AM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Oct 27, 2014 2:18 PM Flag

    What's the mystery? Don't see what difference quarterly vs semi-annual reporting makes? It's a commodity cyclical stock. It just so happens that every once in a while all the commodity prices go down together. Iron ore, coal, copper, oil, gold, silver, etc. all down at once. That's why BHP Billiton has a stated stable dividend policy. Prospects are still good long-term. Staying in and collecting the divvies.

  • Reply to

    Spin off?

    by low_mac Oct 24, 2014 1:02 PM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Oct 25, 2014 3:50 PM Flag

    The proposal is outlined under the "Investor" tab on the BHP Billiton website. O&G is not included in the spin off and stays in the basic dual listed company, i.e., BHP and BBL..

  • Reply to

    why so much down

    by hd317 Oct 14, 2014 8:52 PM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Oct 15, 2014 2:51 PM Flag

    Iron ore price was up 5% this week, so cycle may have turned. China is slowing but still growing at 6%, a big customer of BHP. Real buying op this week IMO. Did you know that BBL is the same [dual listed] company, but at a discount?

  • Reply to

    why so much down

    by hd317 Oct 14, 2014 8:52 PM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Oct 15, 2014 10:22 AM Flag

    Why so much down? Certainly not due to the company's fundamentals. Dividend at 4.5% and earnings per share two times the divvie. Expect 2015 net income at US$14bn. Why down? Because the market is irrational. OK, oil, iron ore, coal, copper, gold, silver (commoidities are BHP's bread and butter) are all down; and the overall market is down, but still BHP SP being down 23% does not make sense.

  • Reply to

    Why the sell recommendation

    by wolfmike32 Oct 7, 2014 4:23 AM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Oct 13, 2014 12:35 AM Flag

    If you draw a Yahoo graph of the Australian dollar AUD=X vs WBK, the WBK ADR share value runs in the opposite direction of the US$ value of Australian dollar. The A$ has fallen about 8% the last month and WBK has fallen 10%. Knee-Jerk Trader/Technical recommendation IMO.

    The Australian economy looks good to me, and the falling A$ is good for their export commodity economy. Love the secure dividend, can't find those in many US stocks. Long for many years and holding.

  • Reply to

    ?

    by alleycatt3k Sep 10, 2014 12:43 PM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Oct 13, 2014 12:18 AM Flag

    I look in once in a while, but not many posters. One of my favorite holdings. Got out of VBTLX in when interest rates got so low. Like the book, and the low fees. Will stay in as long as interest rates stay low and bonds relatively risky (for me, a buy and hold conservative investor interested in steady income more than growth and trading/playing the market).

  • Reply to

    divi increase??

    by carpe_diem_skiem Sep 20, 2014 8:53 PM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Oct 4, 2014 9:33 PM Flag

    BHP's stated, long-term dividend policy* quoted below is to maintain or increase the dividend rather than have large swings. I doubt you will see a decrease in the dividend just because the market currently undervalues these shares. The market is not rational.

    BHP Billiton 2015 net earnings estimated to be US$14 billion or about US$2.60 per ordinary share, $5.20 per ADR. Dividend is not in jeopardy.

    *"BHP Billiton has a progressive dividend policy. The aim of this policy is to steadily increase, or at least maintain our base dividend in US dollars terms at each half yearly payment."

  • frmrskmgr by frmrskmgr Sep 30, 2014 11:41 PM Flag

    I calculate 4.2%, not 3.3%: (1.24 x 2)/59 = 4.2%

  • Reply to

    What % assets do we have in Russia?

    by ressrh Sep 25, 2014 2:07 PM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Sep 26, 2014 12:08 PM Flag

    A relatively small amount of sales and production compared to XOM global operations. Only produce about 200,000 bbls/day and 200 million cubic feet of gas/day in Russia. Assets would be written off for tax reduction. This plus probable delay in exploiting recent agreements with Russia in the arctic (very expensive), and expansion of current operations are at risk. Russia has also invested in XOM operations which would become XOM's if Russia seized Russian assets.

  • Reply to

    BBL at 60

    by dmburke11 Sep 11, 2014 9:50 AM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Sep 22, 2014 2:59 PM Flag

    Both BBL and BHP ADR holders in the US will receive NewCo ADR's. BHP Billiton Ltd and BHP Billiton Plc Group operate as if merged into one company, so the shares are equivalent. The underlying shares [BHP.AX and BLT.L] and their ADR's are equivalent and will receive the same distribution of NewCo ADR's.

    I asked BHP Investor relations and here is what they said in an email to me: "BHP Billiton Plc shareholders – including those holding underlying shares through American Depositary Receipts (BBL ADRs) – would receive an in-specie distribution of shares in the new listed company on a pro-rata basis, as well as retaining their existing shares in the Group. Please note as well that while it is intended that the new entity would be an Australian incorporated company listed on the Australian Securities Exchange with an inward secondary listing on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, it is also proposed that a sponsored, Level 1 ADR program would be established, with those ADRs traded in the United States over-the-counter market."

  • Reply to

    ?

    by alleycatt3k Sep 10, 2014 12:43 PM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Sep 21, 2014 5:29 PM Flag

    VWINX and VWIAX have the same portfolio, but VWIAX (which hasn't been in existence as long) is Vanguard's Admiral version for large investors and has a lower expense fee than VWINX. The early 1980's was when interest rates were 18-20%, which depresses bond values.

  • Reply to

    divi increase??

    by carpe_diem_skiem Sep 20, 2014 8:53 PM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Sep 21, 2014 5:03 PM Flag

    $0.62 per underlying share, up from $0.59; $1.24 per ADR, up from $1.18. Up 4% for the year. Payable 23 Sept. All divi info and hisotry available on BHPBilliton website, Investor tab.

  • Reply to

    ?

    by alleycatt3k Sep 10, 2014 12:43 PM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Sep 20, 2014 12:28 PM Flag

    Just lurking and watching the interplay with VBTLX as interest rate fluctuate. Not as much reverse correlation as I expected. Was long VBTLX until couple years ago, now long VWIAX

  • Reply to

    BBL at 60

    by dmburke11 Sep 11, 2014 9:50 AM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Sep 17, 2014 10:41 PM Flag

    I own both BBL and BHP for many years. BHP Billiton Ltd does not withhold tax. Australian tax code does not tax dividends to the extent the corporation pays tax on income. BHP Billiton Ltd Australian shareholders' dividends are "franked". There is no withholding on my BHP ADR's. As you say, no one can explain the discount as the ADR's are equivalent, same dividend, same vote, etc.

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