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BHP Billiton Limited Message Board

frmrskmgr 16 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 29, 2015 4:42 PM Member since: Feb 15, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Commodities Demand

    by mechengr32 Jul 26, 2015 10:40 AM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Jul 29, 2015 4:42 PM Flag

    By the way, China is still growing, albeit at a slower rate than the last few years. China is BHP's biggest customer. So if they only grow at 6%, that's still growth. US two to three percent, Europe one or two percent, India (?) . BHP is a low-cost producer in every field, and as high-cost producers cut back or fail, supply will fall and prices will begin to recover.

  • Reply to

    Commodities Demand

    by mechengr32 Jul 26, 2015 10:40 AM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Jul 29, 2015 4:36 PM Flag

    If you go to the website indexmundi you can see the 30 year cycles for individual commodities, iron ore, coal, petroleum, copper, etc. Strangely enough the thirty year charts look a lot like the BHP log chart, but with different high and low points. For BHP commodities you would have to blend them, and even then I don't think the history will tell you when the "cycles" will turn and BHP SP will head back up, like I know it will. You also have to factor in the value of the dollar which affects commodity prices. There are just too many unknown factors and variables to expect any kind of credible predictive information. The cycles are not bound by historic factors, but by compound, unknowable, future events, political and economic.

  • Reply to

    Commodities Demand

    by mechengr32 Jul 26, 2015 10:40 AM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Jul 29, 2015 4:03 PM Flag

    There has never been a situation where all of BHP's commodities were all way down all at the same time. BHP's diverse asset's usually shielded BHP from decline in a single commodity. This time they are all down. Somewhat of a cycle appears in Yahoo max log chart with the bottom of the dips about 1988, 1998, and 2008 (see link below if Yahoo allows it to be posted). If that is more than coincidence then we should turn up in 2018. It all depends on increased demand from China, India and Europe.

    I have held BHP since the early 1980's, and have added regularly, so am still way ahead of the game. A buy and hold vet.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=BHP#{"useLogScale":true,"range":"max","allowChartStacking":true}

  • Reply to

    What's happening ???

    by dr_p1 Jun 30, 2015 8:18 PM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Jul 1, 2015 2:26 PM Flag

    Who knows? As good as any time if you think commodities are at bottom about to recover. Even so, they will eventually rise again. I'm waiting to see some sustained positive improvement and keeping powder dry.

  • Reply to

    What's happening ???

    by dr_p1 Jun 30, 2015 8:18 PM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Jul 1, 2015 11:18 AM Flag

    When commodity prices begin to recover. Commodity stocks rise and fall with the commodity market. Glut of oil, copper, coal and iron ore right now. Happens in regular cycles. The overall market (SP 500) hasn't done very well either. All gains for the year wiped out as of this week. Also need better news from Greece, Puerto Rico, China, Europe, Middle East........................

  • Reply to

    Dividends question

    by stalyon52 Jun 29, 2015 2:08 PM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Jun 30, 2015 1:50 PM Flag

    BHP Billiton is a dual listed company listed in UK [BHP.AX in Australia], and UK [BLT.L in London]. The US ADS's [BHP and BBL respectively] each represent two of the underlying shares. BHP Billiton fiscal year is July 1 to June 30. They declare and pay dividends in US$ twice a year. If you look deeper on their website you will find the news release: The proposed dates for the 2015 Final Dividend of BHP Billiton Limited and BHP Billiton Plc are as follows: "2015 Final Dividend:
    Preliminary Results Announcement and Dividend Determination 25 August 2015;
    Last day to trade cum dividend on JSE Limited and currency conversion into RAND 4 September 2015;
    Ex-Dividend Date (Johannesburg Stock Exchange) 7 September 2015;
    Ex-Dividend Date (Australian & New York Stock Exchanges) 9 September 2015;
    Ex-Dividend Date (London Stock Exchange) 10 September 2015;
    Record Date (including currency conversion and currency election dates
    for Australian & London stock exchanges) ;11 September 2015
    Payment Date 29 September 2015"

    "BHP Billiton Limited and BHP Billiton Plc shares are listed in the form of American Depositary Shares (ADSs) and traded as American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) on the NYSE. Each ADS represents two ordinary shares."

    There are no withholding taxes for US holders on the ADS dividends for BHP or BBL.

  • Reply to

    This market could heat up as Buffett enters

    by low_mac Jun 17, 2015 6:39 AM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Jun 17, 2015 11:40 AM Flag

    He just bought $500,000,000 of Insurance Australia Group (IAG) shares, and is said to be looking at Aussie Banks: ANZ, Commonwealth, NAB, and WestPac.

  • Reply to

    Wow ! First message on the board!

    by dr_p1 Jun 11, 2015 7:31 PM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Jun 12, 2015 10:28 AM Flag

    I"ve read they intend to pay out 40% of net earnings in dividends. So let's hope they meet their goal. Some analysts predict that they will, based on performance of these assets within BHP Billiton. Long and holding

  • Reply to

    Hey Risk:

    by mechengr32 Jun 11, 2015 6:48 AM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Jun 11, 2015 11:02 AM Flag

    From what I read in the UBS reports and the press, BHP Billiton intends to maintain their current dividend, and South32 intends to pay out 40% of net earnings, which UBS expects to be around a 4% dividend. Good trick if they can pull it off. The South 32 assets produced a very small profit relative to other assets, so maybe they can do it. BHP has a conservative dividend policy of at least maintaining the dividend, and increasing slightly every year, if possible, rather than big payouts in high-profit years. We'll see. I'm holding.

  • Reply to

    How low does she go?

    by nysexxx Jun 9, 2015 3:06 PM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Jun 10, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    Hey grumpy, that $33.67 was before several stock dividends and spin offs. The adjusted real basis today for stock purchased then is around $5, not counting years of good dividends. I too bought in the 1980's

  • Reply to

    SP Trend

    by mechengr32 Jun 5, 2015 10:03 AM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Jun 6, 2015 12:48 PM Flag

    Here are UBS's projections for FY 2014 (actual), FY15 (ends June 30), 16, 17, and 18 (US$ millions):

    Reported Net Income 13,832; 6,546; 5,586 8,311; 10,823
    DPS (USC/sh) 121.0 124.0 126.0 130.0 134.0

    That translates to US cents per ADS:
    DPADS $2.42 $2,48 $2.52 $2.60 $2.68

    Based on an ADS SP of $43 you get:
    Yield % 5.1 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.2
    Slightly higher yield if you hold the discounted (no one knows why) BBL.

    These estimates presume the spinoff has occurred, cutting costs, and no further decline in commodity prices. BHP is a low-cost producer, so they can stay in profit at these levels and intends to conserve cash to preserve the dividend. Hope UBS is right.

  • Reply to

    SP Trend

    by mechengr32 Jun 5, 2015 10:03 AM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Jun 5, 2015 8:57 PM Flag

    BHP has a conservative dividend payout policy stated on their website. They try to maintain or slightly increase their dividend annually. They have been paying for about 100 years, The policy and dividend history 1985 to date, can all be found under their investor tab.8 They paid through the 2008 recession. Would give the URL, but Yahoo zaps them.

    "BHP Billiton has a progressive dividend policy. The aim of this policy is to at least maintain or steadily increase our base dividend in US dollars terms at each half-yearly payment."

  • Reply to

    SP Trend

    by mechengr32 Jun 5, 2015 10:03 AM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr Jun 5, 2015 1:05 PM Flag

    My guess is up-and-down-sideways for the next six months. BHP swings more with the news and market than fundamentals. On the supply side, as iron ore producers curtail, and oil production slowly tapers off in normal field decline (and less new-well drilling) commodity prices will slowly trend up and BHP/BBL along with it. Not a chart reader either, so not sure where support is, but as long as dividend holds around 5%, SP should hold. Where can you get a better, safer bet? You are correct, WGDP and China are the keys on the demand side. China and India are still growing albeit at a slower pace than several years ago. Biggest risk: Political unrest, Euro-pain. Long-term-long

  • Reply to

    south32 adr's ticket symbol

    by ernestokuhn May 18, 2015 10:06 AM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr May 18, 2015 11:14 AM Flag

    The S32 shares in US are ADS's. Not trading in US yet.

  • Reply to

    south32 adr's ticket symbol

    by ernestokuhn May 18, 2015 10:06 AM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr May 18, 2015 11:13 AM Flag

    Not trading yet in US. Symbol is SA is S32. Debut in Austrlia: BHP dropped about the same amount that S32 was selling for. I have asked BHP what US symbol will be.

  • Reply to

    Any ideas ...

    by dr_p1 May 16, 2015 1:59 PM
    frmrskmgr frmrskmgr May 18, 2015 10:54 AM Flag

    In Australia BHP shares went down about the same amount as the South32 shares were trading. There is an article in The Age, Melbourne. I expect they will both go up from here in the long run.

BHP
38.37+0.24(+0.63%)Jul 31 4:03 PMEDT