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Saga Communications Inc. Message Board

froddoislost 6 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 23, 2015 3:08 PM Member since: Nov 4, 2004
  • Reply to

    890K Trade

    by falcn00 Feb 12, 2015 6:48 AM
    froddoislost froddoislost Feb 23, 2015 3:08 PM Flag

    Well, it looks like your reply is back on the board.

    Help me out here; looking through the 13G filings, I can see some of the names you mention.

    But, according to the Yahoo 'major holders' page, ALL mutual funds are divested.

    Doesn't take much investigating to find out that that is not true.

    Do you have another source for the insider info? Can you explain where you see Towe and where you see Invesco for 18 PLUS 10? I only see 4,016,472 shares for Ivesco. Perhaps I am missing something.

    Anyway, good info during the death watch.

    This might make Wolterman look like stolen lunch money when its over and done.

    I think they figured out a way around SOT. I would bet that was the major driver for issuing unsecured bonds.

    Convertible? Sure, why not. Anything's possible.

  • Reply to

    Impaired assets and Boral

    by froddoislost Feb 20, 2015 12:17 PM
    froddoislost froddoislost Feb 23, 2015 11:19 AM Flag

    Dr dr detroit; that is kind of where I'm at. I just love the two thumbs down I rec'd without further comment.

    I know, it would take a serious amount of effort to type a brief or serious retort to my long-winded ode to USG post. (1 long sentence plus three short) But a brief; 'debt did not go down' or 'would'a could'a should'a' might have been better than just a drive by 'thumbs down'.

    I know, I know, our perpetual turd of the drywall industry is pretty good about not 'bumping' a post he doesn't like. And his shadow identity posts in complete unanimity.

    I wonder sometimes though, who he might work for. Clearly somebody who'd prefer to buy USG shares cheap.

    Then I think; he's just not bright enough to work there.

    Anyway; whenever these guys run out of assets to write down, (or, as my auditor would say; 'record an adjustment in the appropriate period'), we should do quite well. At least on paper.

    Truth is, USG has been doing quite well for the last two years and the bean counters have been pretty good at making it look like they aren't.

    Find me all the companies who's gross margin increased by 65% over the last two years.

    I bet we're in pretty good company in that regard.

    All for now,

    F.B.

  • froddoislost by froddoislost Feb 20, 2015 12:17 PM Flag

    It occurs to me that, if not for the 'impaired' asset charges, the pension charges and the investment in Boral, USG's income statement and balance sheet would have shown spectacular improvement, year over year. Literally spectacular.

    Wonder if anybody else noticed that?

    Is it possible they're holding back, just a bit? Naw, couldn't be.

  • froddoislost froddoislost Feb 11, 2015 4:28 PM Flag

    So . . . help me out here, oceanbreeze. How does he acquire the additional shares he needs if he doesn't 'support the price'?

    I mean, yeah, he can let it fall. But at some point, if he wants it he has to buy the additional shares. He may be able to add some on the cheap, but not the 33.42 million additional shares he needs to have 50%.

    I don't see him buying, calling, inheriting, stealing or otherwise acquiring beneficial interest in that many shares without the market taking notice.

    There simply isn't that kind of float.

    Fair disclosure; I was wrong one other time.

  • Reply to

    TITAN MANAGEMENT

    by bobacequ Jan 6, 2015 8:41 PM
    froddoislost froddoislost Jan 7, 2015 10:53 AM Flag

    Of course there is a way out; inventory reduction auction. But then, they already told shareholders Titan was going to do that on a regular basis a couple of years back. Something about 'wholesale' locations they were setting up, possibly one in Morehead. Then they would take every trade-in machine there and sell it at auction if it didn't retail within a certain time period.

    Maybe that didn't happen.

    Also; I wonder how much new iron CNH shoved down Titan's throat going into the downturn?

    According to the latest 10Q inventory figures and Titan's website's location list, their average location has almost $11 million of inventory. They average $6.5 million per location in new equipment alone.

    It seems like it must be awfully difficult to keep the inventory reconciled to the general ledger, given how much iron they have and how geographically dispersed it is. I'd hate to be that guy. New units arriving from the factory, units out on demo, retail deliveries, trade's not picked up, units out on rent and location transfers, why I bet a guy would have a difficult time keeping it all straight. Add machinery at 16 locations in Easter Europe into the mix and, well, it just may not even be possible to have an actual, reconciled physical inventory with a hard cutoff date.

    My guess is that if they actually held an inventory reduction auction there wouldn't be enough shells to hide the peas under anymore. The loss could be staggering.

    I'm sure it's not nearly as difficult to keep it straight on the floor-plan side. CNH and Wells Fargo have to keep really close tabs on that, right? What if Wells Fargo pulled out? Would CNH step in and pick up all of the floor plan? What due diligence would be required? Can CNH perform that DD for themselves or would it require an outside auditor? Questions, questions.

    This is all just idle speculation. I have no direct interest in or independent knowledge of CNH, Titan or Wells Fargo.

    Just my $0.02 on a cold January morn.

  • I have been pointing this out for some time, but the cat is now out of the bag;

    "The macro-economic events that have occurred since Titan Machinery last reported its quarterly earnings on September 9, 2014 increase the probability that the company will announce it has violated its credit agreement with Wells Fargo and other creditors. Its possible that this announcement could be made when Titan releases its 10/31/14 earnings report on December 10th. The company’s share price fell to new five-year low of $11.67 last week.

    A violation of its credit agreement with Wells Fargo (WFC) and its other creditors would likely result in the company having to file for bankruptcy protection. According to the covenants that it entered into with its creditors, it must maintain a minimum Net Income and Tangible Book value to prevent the creditors from calling in the $850 million loan that the company is utilizing from its floor plan financing, etc."

    - See more at: http://www.equities.com/editors-desk/stocks/industrials/is-titan-machinery-on-the-brink-of-bankruptcy#sthash.5tgxBKlL.dpuf

    Warning; still don't want to short it. It's pretty closely held for a publicly traded company and CNH may decide to bail them out to preserve market share. Not clear, as CNH' position isn't really much better.

SGA
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