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Saga Communications, Inc. Message Board

froddoislost 3 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 12, 2015 1:20 PM Member since: Nov 4, 2004
  • Reply to

    USG Buy Out

    by brodyterrier Aug 10, 2015 12:37 PM
    froddoislost froddoislost Aug 12, 2015 1:20 PM Flag

    I see your point Jackie.

    Perhaps sacrificing the NOLs would be of more value to BRK to get in sooner, before the next housing boom.

  • Reply to

    USG Buy Out

    by brodyterrier Aug 10, 2015 12:37 PM
    froddoislost froddoislost Aug 11, 2015 10:11 AM Flag

    Yeah, sure. Next year if we make about 1.8 billion this year. (Hint; that is not going to happen.)

    No offense, but BRK is not going to buy USG next year.

    The NOL's are nowhere near exhausted and we'll likely use about 200m this year, resulting in no income tax liability.

    I expect next years earnings will exceed this year's, possibly by 50% with significant continued earnings growth for the next several years. And we won't pay income tax on most of it. Which is nice.

    Given all of that, the NOLS won't be used up before 2018 even with three really good years. It could take 'til 2020 or longer, depending on housing and drywall supply.

    And this is all good. I for one would be really unhappy if Buffet took me out at a 20% premium right now, given that USG could make about $12 per share over the next 3 to 5 years and pay almost no income tax.

    If he can't move until 2018 or later, it is possible USG trades north of $100 by that time, earning 4 to $6 /share and cash flowing 9-15. Trade at 15 times earnings of 6 is 90. Impossible? Hardly.

    I am sure Warren would like to get USG south of 80, but he'll wait for at least most of the NOL's to be used up. Right now I'd be happy with 80, but I'd vote against anything under 65. If it weren't for the shareholder rights agreement and the NOLs, USG would already be trading over 40. If people thought USG was on the block I think it'd get past 50 pretty fast.

    Either way, its probably a good thing for existing shareholders that he won't take it next year.

    Just my $0.02.

  • Reply to

    news?

    by lifeexplorenow Jul 16, 2015 2:48 PM
    froddoislost froddoislost Jul 16, 2015 3:20 PM Flag

    Here's the news flash; for the paltry sum of 368,000 you can bump the market cap of this dog by about 29 million.

    Now, with that in mind, I ask ya;

    Why would anyone want to do that?

SGA
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