took the words out of my mouth
These guys have milked NBIX with their Bonuses and Stock Options for years.
Indiplon run to $65 was when?? so long ago
preclinical pipeline means very little in terms of valuation. If Abbvie comes shopping their will be very little kevy and the boys will be able to do. Abbvie management team are master at takeovers.
i have been around NBIX as an investment since around 1997/98 ,,,,, long, on the side lines, long, on the side lines, long. My current position I bought in 2010 Have sold 60% of it since than.
I know management and given their track record I'll be very happy with $50 in the bank
The stock does want to go to $20+ PPS Before E P3 Results.
Positive trial results we head towards $30 as Abbvie will buy out NBIX north of $50
No reason for NBIX to be a stand alone biotech given its limited pipeline after E and VMAT2
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Need to know if its K1 or k2 trial or both
what impact will it have on P3 deveopment plans
Will they have to do another P2?? will it have an impact on NBIX obtaining an SPA from the FDA for P3 trial design????. IMO, no SPA than hitting trial end points will be cloudy hazy foggy for street confidence and thus impact valuation of this program on PPS.
I'm invested in NBIX for Elagolix so just a speed bump to some degree but could have an impact on TOTAL valuation of the company via a buy out by Abbvie.
IMO, P3 trial for TD will be done under an SPA which will define clear trial Endpoints.
Motley Fool thinks the TD indication will be a $$$Blockbuster
I see a $75 PPS buy-out by Abbvie in late 2015.
$20's just around the corner as analyst upgrade and increase PT's
Next big PPS event will be Elagolix UF P2 trial results in August/14
The stock is going to $20++
The only hope you have of a cheaper price is a general stock market sell-off that causes all High beta stocks to sell-off 20%. bar that type of event this stock is on auto-pilot to the $$20's
Analyst PT's going up, New Coverage and UPGRAGES fourthcoming
$20 will be broken over next few months as the street gears up the PPS for P2 UF Elagolix Data in August.
VMAT is a game changer for NBIX Investors and the PPS of the stock and is worth at least $10 per share in MKT CAP. With cash position puts a $12/$14 floor under the stock.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I'm shocked on How Good this data IS.
WOW! given the short position we are going to get a nice bounce over the next month.
VMAT now creates a trading floor for the upcoming P2 and P3 Elagolix trial data later this year.
Its now a different company to invest in ........... The RISK FACTOR just got very very exceptable.
if the stock gets cheap enough I will play it via out of the money Jan/14 CALL OPTIONS
kevi said we would get clearer E timeline data in january after management meeting with abbvie
typing with left hand have tendinitis in right arm.
the earliest we see E for Endo is october but most likly december.
VMAT is a 2015 event and kevi gave us a bunch of mombo jumbo on current and pending P2b results
IMO their is lonterm value but the timimg of positive P3 E results leaves this stock vunerable to trading down on any significant mkt sell-off.
short term upside is thru may/june trading is around $12 PPS
given our recent highs upwards towards $17, the stock is going to have resistance above $12 PPS
tough slog over the summer even with E p2b for UF reading out like July/august
would not be a buyer above $10 as we could see $7's in a mkt sell-off really want to say $6's but $7 has value written on it.
I have a core position but its all $3/$4/$5 stock so I will hold for the ride. everbody knows I trade the stock outside my core position. I don't hold my traders long buy in multiple lots and get $.50 cents up and i'm out.
the future is cloudy as VMAT is up in the air and just a reminder to those who have been here from the Idiplon days and Pfizer!!!!! Abbvie has srewed around with the P3 trial patient population size and the timelines have slipped and slipped and that makes every investor nervous including myself.
there are several posts on the investor village mmssg board draw your own conclusions on their confusied state of mind. some, seem to hate management but love the stock .........
Just got done reading some of the posts on the Investor Village board about todays conference call.
Lot of negative stuff posted. sounds like both VMAT and E trial timelines are pushed out again.
My $10/$11 price target range is on HOLD.
Need to listen to the CC myself don't have time at this moment so any additional comments welcome
WOW talk about oversold
The bigger question is the rotation out of the small CAP Biotech sector in general over? ? ? ?
Tax Loss selling season starts very soon
the stock has had a 50% haircut from its 52 week high in September.
Read your post on IV board.
Given NBIX has no pipeline beyond Elagolix ......... Abbvie buy-out sooner than later.
IMO, after we get 1ST E P3 readout . $25/$30 per share
Throw in the $2 in Cash and NBIX should be trading around $11/$12 PPS
I for one would not mind an Abbvie buy-out at around $17/$18 PPS.
lets just see what types of year End bonus and stock options management gives to themselves for their cowdung 2013 performance. These guys would blank-up a wetdream