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Model N, Inc. Message Board

fuel_cell_fych 400 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 3, 2014 2:34 PM Member since: Dec 7, 2001
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  • Reply to

    Ouch...

    by fuel_cell_fych Dec 1, 2014 1:38 PM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Dec 3, 2014 2:34 PM Flag

    seriously?

    investing (to me) is about having fun and making money. I also like to 'test' my thesis with other reasonable people. If I am convinced that I am wrong, I change. This has not happened (yet?) with SYMX.

    But, if you think the only position an investor can have in a stock is a bullish one, then I am happy that you are on the other side of my trade.

    Also, announcing your position to the world is just bad form. You do not need to know my position, but do know that I have one.

    Lastly, I really do not think that comments on this board have any impact on the stock price. This forum is to share perspective. I take offensive (some but not a lot) that you refer to me as a 'basher'. I hope some people refer to me as a 'contributor'. If I am ever bullish on SYMX, which may happen, I will share the defense of the view. That is contributing a view, not bashing or hyping.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Ouch...

    by fuel_cell_fych Dec 1, 2014 1:38 PM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Dec 3, 2014 9:41 AM Flag

    excactly...I made other posts as well earlier than Oct with similar predictions of the 80 cents / share.

    Since Oct, though, I have become bearish vs bullish at this price point. I have explained why.

  • Reply to

    Ouch...

    by fuel_cell_fych Dec 1, 2014 1:38 PM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Dec 2, 2014 7:40 PM Flag

    you're being sarcastic...but in the off chance you are seriously asking...I think most people on this board have it right now.

    No firm deals = no news = declining buying interest with increasing selling interest = stock price goes lower.

    Listen to the interview with the CEO. He says, in his own words, that there's a real need for the SYMX technology but that its commercialization is dependent upon some pretty significant geo-political circumstances (not good at all for a startup).

    If the history on startup deaths provide any guidance, the future may hold the following: 1) mgmt continues on its current course, burning cash; 2) when cash reserves get low, an offering is made; 3) a small but harsh deal gets completed with investors (non corporate) who think they can be the 'white knight' / saving grace; 4) stock price plummets; 5) new cash gets burned through; 6) no takers on any new offering; 7) company is liquidated to creditors / investors w/ preferences; 8) all sellable assets (IP) get sold to patiently waiting corporations benefiting only the creditors / investors w/ preferences (for pennies on dollar). With no buyers of stock, all stockholders will hold worthless shares of a no company forever.

    Energy tech is tough. Industrial new tech is tough. Getting wrapping into geopolitical BS is bad news.

    Now, what I describe above is not a quick process...but a long, painful one.

    Just an opinion...I am interested in your views too (except for v-dog cheerleader).

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Ouch...

    by fuel_cell_fych Dec 1, 2014 1:38 PM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Dec 2, 2014 9:24 AM Flag

    I predicted this price level when it was over $1.20/share and I received a lot of backlash from those on this board.

    People should listen to those with views different from their hopes and dreams.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • fuel_cell_fych by fuel_cell_fych Dec 1, 2014 1:38 PM Flag

    $0.87 / share

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    To V-Dope

    by fuel_cell_fych Oct 30, 2014 1:01 PM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Oct 30, 2014 6:35 PM Flag

    I hear ya. I don't think a tech like SYMX 'hits' though like a biotech does. Once the FDA approves a new drug, it can get to market / to the masses pretty quickly. With an industrial process technology, I don't think it is the same. The customers don't view new technology in the same way...they will each need to demo and pilot it at different scales before it 'hits' with them individually. A much longer process....

    But, I think you're monitoring the right things...it's all about getting to the next milestone before running out of capital.

    The low is in the 0.60 / share, but I am thinking it does not reach that. Buy at / around $0.80 and then wait and see. I think it only goes lower than 0.80 if there becomes a runway / cash issue.

    Upside is probably $1.50 conservatively to $3,00 aggressively. Timing for this upside (not a spike, but off of something meaningful and signficantly that benefits all SYMX shareholders, not just the ones who were able to sell) is probably within 3 years. So, good but not great for those who bought higher.

    If SYMX's technology's core competency (low rank coal) was so timely for the gasification markets, things would be happening much quicker than they are. Again, note SYMX's brand positioning change in its recent announcement to not just tout low rank coal. It is now an economics / low cost opportunity and SYMX is playing catch up with Siemens and other big guys.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • fuel_cell_fych by fuel_cell_fych Oct 30, 2014 1:01 PM Flag

    stop posting and then deleting your comments....you are displaying psychotic behavior. Best to go to your local Texas head doctor and get your brain checked.

    if you want to be a cheerleader, go a head...but when I call you out for being a cheerleader, take it like a man.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    is this thing at $0.80 yet?

    by fuel_cell_fych Oct 27, 2014 11:15 AM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Oct 30, 2014 10:04 AM Flag

    well, it makes sense to me to buy sell and sell high. I didn't realize I needed to point that out.

  • Reply to

    is this thing at $0.80 yet?

    by fuel_cell_fych Oct 27, 2014 11:15 AM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Oct 30, 2014 10:03 AM Flag

    you are such a cheerleader....every comment you make is cheering someone or symx on...absent of any original or interesting thought.

  • Reply to

    is this thing at $0.80 yet?

    by fuel_cell_fych Oct 27, 2014 11:15 AM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Oct 30, 2014 10:01 AM Flag

    cheerleader..

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    is this thing at $0.80 yet?

    by fuel_cell_fych Oct 27, 2014 11:15 AM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Oct 30, 2014 10:01 AM Flag

    what you point out are intra day spikes...not sustained value enhancements. These spikes come from ignorance, not smarts...from people thinking that a single news piece drastically changes SYMX's stock price. That is biotech investing on a non-biotech stock.

    Recent history shows, mind you, that these spikes are becoming less dramatic and less frequent. There are soo many sellers right now that any good news will be swamped quickly with that pressure..unlike a few years ago.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    is this thing at $0.80 yet?

    by fuel_cell_fych Oct 27, 2014 11:15 AM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Oct 28, 2014 2:17 PM Flag

    thx for sharing rational thoughts.

    My opinion is that tech analysis doesn't work with illiquid securities. If anything, though, I'd rely on the most important tech analysis technique, which is trend. This is trending down on the long term charts (most important). The trend says this is trending very consistently down to it's previous major low support, which is around $0.60 / share. But, again, I don't think tech analysis holds much weight with an illiquid stock.

    More fundamentally, I think you, and may others, are categorizing SYMX too much as a biotech stock -- that one day something will happen and huge value will be created and reflected in the stock price.

    My perspective is that many indicators will be revealed if milestones are getting met and that there will be many, many milestones that eventually, over a long time frame, drastically change the SYMX stock price (excluding intra-day spikes).

    Unlike a drug that passes some certification and confirms its market readiness and therefore value, SYMX needs to demonstration, win partners, demonstrate with specific partners, then land customers (partners then can become customers), then build plant one, then plan plant two, then build plant two, etc, etc

    This is a decade long process and recent indications from SYMX on the success it is having in getting this long process going is not very good...poor, in fact. Mgmt issues, delays, a somewhat sideline and distracting focus on meoh production for CF generation (SYMX is fundamentally an IP / tech play). All not good and for startups, it is all about timing.

    just some of my perspective...I share not with the intent of getting people to agree, but with the intent to trigger new thoughts and perhaps make us all better investors in SYMX and other companies.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    is this thing at $0.80 yet?

    by fuel_cell_fych Oct 27, 2014 11:15 AM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Oct 28, 2014 10:29 AM Flag

    care to share why you think this will go to $2.40 / share and when?

  • fuel_cell_fych by fuel_cell_fych Oct 28, 2014 10:14 AM Flag

    rules a village of idiots, that is.

    V-dope: why do you keep erasing your comments after I respond? My response is deleted too. Sorry if I keep embarrassing you with my comments by pointing out your idiocy, but it is just so easy to do. You have now done this at least five times.

    If you don't like my comments, put me on 'ignore'. It's pretty simple. I share my perspective for the benefit of those on this board. Everyone is more then free to disagree or to agree. It is just my perspective. I always share my reasons for my perspective so that it is easier for others to either agree or disagree. To me, this board is about information and perspective sharing. I have a lot of relevant experience.

    For the record, I have been right a lot with SYMX. You have been wrong...a lot. You only post when things are going well. You are just a cheerleader.

    V-dope...you cannot delete this message because it is not a response to yours.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    is this thing at $0.80 yet?

    by fuel_cell_fych Oct 27, 2014 11:15 AM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Oct 27, 2014 6:35 PM Flag

    Right...you only post when SYMX spikes. Hahaha.

    By the way, a 'day old cow pie' can not be 'dumb' or 'smart'. It takes a brain to be either 'dumb' or 'smart'. It's a descriptive word characterizing one's intelligence (requiring a brain). Did you make it through high school even?

    In all seriousness, put me on 'ignore' V-dope. I am quite sure some people appreciate my perspective. I have been right a lot - much more than you. I also give reasons for my views so that people can better agree or disagree. To me, this forum is about info and perspective sharing.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • fuel_cell_fych by fuel_cell_fych Oct 27, 2014 11:15 AM Flag

    I predicted this when it was at $1.20....

    today's technology announcement = another indication that SYMX is still a high risk tech play trying to find a home for its technology. Notice a new emphasis on ALL types of coal, instead of their traditional focus on their core competency of low rank coal. Just another indication that the market isn't there yet for low rank coal gasification.

    To $0.80 / share.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Fuel Cell

    by valudog Sep 23, 2014 6:06 PM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Sep 25, 2014 12:14 AM Flag

    You misunderstand me V-dog. We aren't all born with the same horsepower or torque above the neck, if you get my drift. I'll try to explain it a different way...a way that maybe you can understand.

    I understand that you believe what you write is 100% true. But, what you wrote is simply contextually incorrect. While you believe TR Winston, CS and ZCM investments mean Symx will succeed, you are ignoring the context and details of those investments and how they actually relate to the probability of success for Symx. It is dangerous (IMO) to ignore such contextual details and boast such inconclusive cause and effect relationships.

    It is no different than saying any family that buys a house through Sotheby's (a broker) will get the best investment returns. Erroneous and a dangerous mindset. There are far more significant variables at play.

    I really hope people are not listening to you.

  • Reply to

    Fuel Cell

    by valudog Sep 23, 2014 6:06 PM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Sep 24, 2014 5:24 PM Flag

    We are all guessing here, but clearly I interpret things different than you do. I stand by my comments and I think your points above are contextually misused and dangerous (just my opinion).

    You speak of TR Winston Group and Credit Suisse as if they can do no wrong. These guys are investment bankers, investing OTHER PEOPLE's money and making money off of the transaction. The $15M that came into SYMX via TR was from individuals...no different from you or me. They got sold on the SYMX story and wanted to invest and had TR negotiate the deal. They paid fair market price at the time...no different than if you or I got interested and wanted to invest in March '14. They just wrote larger checks and went through a banker that negotiated a warrant. It is not like Carl Icahn or Bill Gates investing their own money after significant diligence.

    Also re: ZCM, I would hesitate greatly before calling a $16M investment from them sizable or even an important investment. ZCM is huge in terms of sales and mkt cap and has a lot going on. The scary thing for SYMX is that ZCM has EXCLUSIVE rights to its technology for all of China. What does this mean? Well, it means that SYMX will only close a deal in China on ZCM's timeline...not on SYMX's timeline or needs. Same with GE for Pak. ZCM and GE are 'slow' moving animals...time kills startups.

  • Reply to

    Hmmm...must be news coming!

    by powerlad60 Sep 23, 2014 1:42 PM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Sep 23, 2014 2:16 PM Flag

    if you believe this, then you should buy all that you can!

  • Reply to

    Back Under a Buck?

    by matt8633 Sep 23, 2014 10:43 AM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Sep 23, 2014 1:53 PM Flag

    Sorry....I meant 0.70/share, not 70(!!). Sadly, I think this is trending towards 0.80 and will eventually get bought at 0.70 by one of their partners as a tech acquisition. Between now and then, I see frustration, delays and cash burn....unfortunately.

    Just another thought - never during the call did mgmt take an opportunity to address the CMO leaving issue. That was a big miss in my opinion and not a good sign either. If you don't have anything nice to say, then....

MODN
11.01+0.14(+1.29%)Dec 26 4:02 PMEST

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