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Model N, Inc. Message Board

fuel_cell_fych 51 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 25, 2014 12:14 AM Member since: Dec 7, 2001
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  • Reply to

    Fuel Cell

    by valudog Sep 23, 2014 6:06 PM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Sep 25, 2014 12:14 AM Flag

    You misunderstand me V-dog. We aren't all born with the same horsepower or torque above the neck, if you get my drift. I'll try to explain it a different way...a way that maybe you can understand.

    I understand that you believe what you write is 100% true. But, what you wrote is simply contextually incorrect. While you believe TR Winston, CS and ZCM investments mean Symx will succeed, you are ignoring the context and details of those investments and how they actually relate to the probability of success for Symx. It is dangerous (IMO) to ignore such contextual details and boast such inconclusive cause and effect relationships.

    It is no different than saying any family that buys a house through Sotheby's (a broker) will get the best investment returns. Erroneous and a dangerous mindset. There are far more significant variables at play.

    I really hope people are not listening to you.

  • Reply to

    Fuel Cell

    by valudog Sep 23, 2014 6:06 PM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Sep 24, 2014 5:24 PM Flag

    We are all guessing here, but clearly I interpret things different than you do. I stand by my comments and I think your points above are contextually misused and dangerous (just my opinion).

    You speak of TR Winston Group and Credit Suisse as if they can do no wrong. These guys are investment bankers, investing OTHER PEOPLE's money and making money off of the transaction. The $15M that came into SYMX via TR was from individuals...no different from you or me. They got sold on the SYMX story and wanted to invest and had TR negotiate the deal. They paid fair market price at the time...no different than if you or I got interested and wanted to invest in March '14. They just wrote larger checks and went through a banker that negotiated a warrant. It is not like Carl Icahn or Bill Gates investing their own money after significant diligence.

    Also re: ZCM, I would hesitate greatly before calling a $16M investment from them sizable or even an important investment. ZCM is huge in terms of sales and mkt cap and has a lot going on. The scary thing for SYMX is that ZCM has EXCLUSIVE rights to its technology for all of China. What does this mean? Well, it means that SYMX will only close a deal in China on ZCM's timeline...not on SYMX's timeline or needs. Same with GE for Pak. ZCM and GE are 'slow' moving animals...time kills startups.

  • Reply to

    Hmmm...must be news coming!

    by powerlad60 Sep 23, 2014 1:42 PM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Sep 23, 2014 2:16 PM Flag

    if you believe this, then you should buy all that you can!

  • Reply to

    Back Under a Buck?

    by matt8633 Sep 23, 2014 10:43 AM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Sep 23, 2014 1:53 PM Flag

    Sorry....I meant 0.70/share, not 70(!!). Sadly, I think this is trending towards 0.80 and will eventually get bought at 0.70 by one of their partners as a tech acquisition. Between now and then, I see frustration, delays and cash burn....unfortunately.

    Just another thought - never during the call did mgmt take an opportunity to address the CMO leaving issue. That was a big miss in my opinion and not a good sign either. If you don't have anything nice to say, then....

  • Reply to

    Hang tight for next Press Release

    by salman_skhan Sep 21, 2014 10:34 PM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Sep 23, 2014 12:40 PM Flag

    yes, that is it.

  • Reply to

    Hang tight for next Press Release

    by salman_skhan Sep 21, 2014 10:34 PM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Sep 23, 2014 12:19 PM Flag

    you should listen to the SYMX call, but basically said underground syngas production is a well known 'concept' for coal reserves too deep to economically mine. So, in concept, you burn it underground, capture the syngas and transport it to the surface. It is a fine concept but will have technical issues to resolve on many levels over the next 10 years. Symx does not view it as a competitor because their technology is ready today while this underground concept has a lot of design issues and practical issues to resolve, including environmental.

    again, this is my interpretation of the comments. I do suggest you listen to the call yourself and make your own conclusions.

  • Reply to

    Hang tight for next Press Release

    by salman_skhan Sep 21, 2014 10:34 PM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Sep 23, 2014 12:01 PM Flag

    if you haven't yet listened to the last SYMX earnings call you should. They comment on SCOK and 'underground syngas production'. While SYMX is struggling, they know their stuff and they do not BS investors deliberately.

    you are all playing with fire...

  • Reply to

    Back Under a Buck?

    by matt8633 Sep 23, 2014 10:43 AM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Sep 23, 2014 11:56 AM Flag

    I hear ya on the frustration. The best part of the earnings call were the 'not so hidden' comments directed at SCOK...that stock is a complete wild card.

    I find it particularly frustrating that two calls ago, mgmt.'s answer to 'when will you have project sales' was very optimistic -- my interpretation of it (as well as many others) was that within the proceeding quarter, we might expect the first order. The answer to this same question on the last call was much different (IMO)...a much less optimistic tone and only an re-statement that mgmt.'s objective 'over the next year' is to get its first project sale...but these things take time. Not confidence inspiring.

    So, six months ago, I was a SYMX bull. Now, I am much less so, thinking it will take 12 months on the best case and 24 months on a more realistic case for symx's public value to fundamentally change.

    Going to $0.80 IMO and likely another offering within the next six months. Most likely scenario is that they get bought out for $70 / share in 12 months as tech sale.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    I need to hear somthing positive

    by tds4545 Sep 5, 2014 6:09 PM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Sep 6, 2014 4:28 PM Flag

    not offended, just surprised by some people's lack of objectivity when taking non-controlling positions in stocks. you are long and you are loosing money and you are poised to loose more money in the short term (my opinion). objectively, I think you are better off adjusting your position(s), or at least listening to counter views, rather than seeking one-sided comfort from others on a public message board.

    Do you own analysis and share your results...I am interested in hearing it. I have shared my analysis. More pain on the way.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    I need to hear somthing positive

    by tds4545 Sep 5, 2014 6:09 PM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Sep 5, 2014 9:30 PM Flag

    and by negative comments, you are referring to opposing views to yours or opposed to what you want to hear? You must be one hell of a guy...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • fuel_cell_fych by fuel_cell_fych Sep 5, 2014 11:02 AM Flag

    I have:

    Rev = $6.185M
    Plant Opex = ($6.6M)
    Corp Opex = ($1.7M)
    Depr / Stock = ($0.5M)

    Net Income = ($2.6M)
    $/share = ($0.04)

    Without some very good business updates as part of this report since this quarter closed end of July, the fair market value for this stock is legitimately $0.68 / share.

    it is what it is...be ready for it.

    Other predications (grounded in reality)???

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    getting run over?

    by fuel_cell_fych Aug 28, 2014 9:43 AM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Aug 28, 2014 2:03 PM Flag

    unfortunately, I do not think the world works that way...a strategic will likely only defend SYMX's IP if the strategic is also at risk from the infringement. A business relation would not cut it....maybe if the strategic owned 49% of SYMX, then they have enough to loose by not acting on infringements.

    to be clear...I have no idea if SCOK is infringing. I would guess not.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    getting run over?

    by fuel_cell_fych Aug 28, 2014 9:43 AM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Aug 28, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    maybe...but at that point SCOK will have a lot more money than SYMX for legal fees. My view = patents are only as valuable as the money you have to defend them. Patents don't protect themselves.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • fuel_cell_fych by fuel_cell_fych Aug 28, 2014 9:43 AM Flag

    looks like SCOK may be the real deal...news this morning: SinoCoking Projects $10 Million to $15 Million Gross Profit From Syngas Sales in 2015.

    They are even separating out the CO2, which I though SYMX had a unique / proprietary system for this.

    I'm pretty confused now what the competitive advantage is for SYMX's technology. Low grade coal?? Ok, but they are using all types of coal at ZZ.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    when are earnings

    by fuel_cell_fych Aug 27, 2014 10:35 AM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Aug 27, 2014 6:03 PM Flag

    it was due out a long time ago according to the last CC...I wouldn't hold your breath.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    when are earnings

    by fuel_cell_fych Aug 27, 2014 10:35 AM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Aug 27, 2014 2:57 PM Flag

    Ok - thx.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • fuel_cell_fych by fuel_cell_fych Aug 27, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    anyone get a response from IR?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    If you can't buy 'em, grant 'em....

    by alpinemeadows2003 Aug 25, 2014 5:31 PM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Aug 26, 2014 9:12 AM Flag

    I don't agree. These incentive plans are commonly put into place to 're-energize' key executives. Typically this is done at hiring or when the company is struggling. It could be your 'good case', but it could also be the board's final push for RR to get something done...or else.

    that's what happens with startups...if the company is not performing, the board will use any and all options to incentivize management to 'please get going'. The options (and stock) are worthless otherwise, so you might as well use them.

    anyone's guess...but I am seeing the negative, unfortunately to all of us long time holders.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    GE will probably buy them

    by c4porsche Aug 25, 2014 11:26 AM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Aug 25, 2014 5:23 PM Flag

    hmmm-- the fact that the 'venture' financing had options tied to it is not a good thing. That was a deal sweetener for the investors and negative for current shareholders and the company's marketability to the investor community.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    getting ridiculous

    by fuel_cell_fych Aug 25, 2014 8:49 AM
    fuel_cell_fych fuel_cell_fych Aug 25, 2014 10:53 AM Flag

    - all startups pursue compelling market opportunities
    - most startups fail

    You should not fall in love with your investments.

    Sentiment: Hold

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