Been in this since 2013. These special dividends are not what really drives the PPS....up or down. They are merely returns of capital to shareholders (an ongoing distribution dictated by Icahn years ago). It was common knowledge that there was just over .80 @ share in cash reserves. They decided to return .50 of that. There is no news with this event. The royalties are winding down gradually, and that will get returned eventually. That huge spike in volume several months ago spoke volumes. Volume always precedes the real move. Those share blocks were not retail investors. Icahn is not parking his money here for kicks. He would have exited long ago.....if he thought it was hopeless. One of two scenarios would really move this in earnest. 1) The company is sold to someone who desires the cash, pipeline, and more importantly, the loss carryforward. Or 2) The Belrose contingency on 0038 pays off big time. Both are very plausible. In the interim, the company bides it's time with periodic dividend payments....while they seek bidders. I personally believe the real driver may end being the Belrose deal. The terms were intentionally shrouded in secrecy.....and there are several former prominent ENZN employees now with Belrose.
Best analysis I've read in quite some time. Agreed, the Belrose relationship is murky, but that seems to be by design. Could be a significant driver....or could be negligible. That volume we saw months ago was unprecedented, and the share blocks were huge.