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Gogo Inc. Message Board

fundmanager1 1130 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 1, 2014 4:06 PM Member since: Apr 6, 1998
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  • fundmanager1 fundmanager1 Dec 1, 2014 4:06 PM Flag

    Not bad. Down a penny on a big down day for the market. The stock is strong in a down market.

    Additionally, no more wash sales for tax purposes for 2014.

    FEYE should pop tomorrow.

  • The drop today (before CNBC mentioned FEYE very favorably) is very likely due to Wash Sale selling pressure. Lots of FEYE holders are sitting on a loss, so today is the last day to take a loss if you want to buy back in 2014 w/o incurring a Wash Sale violation with the IRS. (you can't sell a stock at a loss and buy it back in the next 30 days).

    Tomorrow, there should be no Wash Sale selling pressure.

  • From Marketwatch article:

    (FEYE CEO defends Q3 results and issues upbeat billings growth)

    Last month, FireEye reported a 168% year-over-year increase in sales but missed Wall Street expectations. In an interview with MarketWatch, FireEye CEO David DeWalt defended the results, calling revenue a "trailing indicator" of operations as customers switch to its subscription-based cloud service.

    He says a more telling trend is the increase in billings, which grew 45% during the second quarter to $165.1 million , topping the company's own estimate of up to $155 million . FireEye has forecast a rise in billings of to up to $210 million for the current quarter.

  • That explains the recent weird manipulation to hold GOGO shares down so GOOG can negotiate a lowball buyout price.

    GOGO would be an excellent fit with GOOG.

  • Reply to

    3 questions about JetWest...

    by biztechnologies Jan 20, 2014 3:30 PM
    fundmanager1 fundmanager1 Jan 20, 2014 10:28 PM Flag

    Ravi22 - Who is the competitor and what is their market share compared to GOGO's market share?

    Also, the fact the Gogo is partnering with Inmarsat on satellite coverage for COMMERCIAL air transport, wouldn't that imply that GOGO would also be offering passenger flight coverage for international flights? That's the biggie.

    I can imagine 70% of people on an international flight would pay for access. A 10-12 hour flight would pass by so quickly if I had internet access.

  • Reply to

    Gtat weekly review

    by cali_sun99 Dec 4, 2013 2:34 AM
    fundmanager1 fundmanager1 Dec 7, 2013 1:56 PM Flag

    ..."and addresses the upcoming market shortage. "

    What makes you confident there will be an upcoming shortage? Especially if GT is effectively "doubling the available supply capacity for the entire world by mid 2014?"

  • fundmanager1 fundmanager1 Oct 25, 2013 3:44 PM Flag

    Note also that in the past 3 days, about 35 million shares have traded. The most recent short interest as of Oct 15th showed about 20M shares short.

    This would imply that most of the shorted shares were "burned off" in Wednesday's 28% blast-off after the earnings report.

    Light volume today and lack of further upward movement would imply dwindling short-covering activity. In other words, the short squeeze is essentially over and it would be probably be safer to wade into a short position now than on the initial pop.

  • In the earnings conference call, they glossed over the fact that they've been conspicuously silent about the completion of their Convertible Note offering they announced a month ago. This should be done by now. The fact that it hasn't has us wondering if there is insufficient demand for it. That's my guess.

    Here is from the earnings call transcript from seeking alpha:

    "...We've been getting a lot of questions about the status of our convertible note offering. As you may have seen, we filed amendments to the registration statement last week in response to the SEC comments. Even though we expect to get through the process this month, it's a quiet time in the markets in the last couple of weeks of this month, we'll wait until after Labor Day to take a look at the capital markets at that time."
    --

    Sounds like a flimsy excuse to me...

    Comments anyone?

  • Reply to

    SCTY to be used for Hyperloop

    by tommydukes19 Aug 11, 2013 2:31 PM
    fundmanager1 fundmanager1 Aug 11, 2013 10:08 PM Flag

    Dude, Hyperloop is just an idea that Mush is going to toss out there. No implementation planned. Probably 5-10 years away.

    Yes, it would be nice, but you'll have to wait a long time for regulatory agencies, right-of-way negotiations, Fed/State funding, etc.

  • Reply to

    Revenue 46M vs expected 26M

    by r8h234rs Aug 7, 2013 4:10 PM
    fundmanager1 fundmanager1 Aug 7, 2013 4:19 PM Flag

    I think it will become more clear as analysts ask questions on the conference call and then revise their models.

    Key takeaways are:

    a) Huge increase in revenues
    b) They will turn CONSISTENTLY Cash flow positive in Q4. Note how they said it CONFIDENTLY that they will be CONSISTENTLY CF positive:

    "...the Company continues to expect to turn consistently net cash flow positive on a go-forward basis by Q4 2013."

    c) Throw in some deal-win announcements tomorrow before the open and SCTY will take another stab at $50/share.

  • Reply to

    Revenue 46M vs expected 26M

    by r8h234rs Aug 7, 2013 4:10 PM
    fundmanager1 fundmanager1 Aug 7, 2013 4:13 PM Flag

    Exactly right. The reason SPWR got punished was exactly the opposite: (EPS surprised to the upside, but investors were concerned about the drop in revenues).

    This is an astonishing 77% upside surprise to revenues!! Just phenomenal. That means they are growing their base much faster than anyone thought.

  • Not to mention the Converts that Goldman is running for them and SCTY loaned 2.7M shares to Goldman.

    For Goldman to do this, there is no doubt Musk gave Goldman some inside info about positive developments this quarter and in the future. Otherwise why would Goldman do this? To lose money?

    I'm guessing Musk will pull another rabbit out of his sleeve this time around.

  • Last earnings in May, SCTY had run up 100% in ONE MONTH (from April to May 13th it went from $18-$39). Yes, that's 100%.

    So no wonder there was a 13% profit-taking after a 100% one-month run-up. Not to mention that with the Goldman 0.5Billion investment/loans announcement the next week, SCTY rallied and was up 200% since April.

    In this case today, FSLR & SPWR's declines on their earnings report have kept SCTY COILED UP at lower prices without a 100% pre-earnings runup. In fact, more shorts probably piled in.

    Recall that in the May earnings conference call, Musk said this quarter was looking very strong and they "expect to be cash flow positive."

    With a low float and high short interest, SCTY really does move when news is favorable. Musk probably wants to run up SCTY shares just like he was able to do with TSLA and then go for a secondary (or third round), so Musk has no doubt saved up some good news to add jet fuel to the earnings report.

  • Reply to

    Reversal Day July 15

    by sidibid1 Jul 16, 2013 1:53 AM
    fundmanager1 fundmanager1 Jul 16, 2013 2:33 AM Flag

    Nope, companies typically gain 3-4% on average upon getting added to the N-100. That happened partially last Friday. But today's move was a key reversal.

  • Reply to

    kbodie77777, bobevenssr, iamagod991

    by beachhed Jul 15, 2013 9:31 PM
    fundmanager1 fundmanager1 Jul 16, 2013 2:28 AM Flag

    Beach-Head guy - oldest trick in the book is to do ad-homenim attacks on people with who you can't win a debate. That's what you're doing.

    Please refute the CONTENT of my posts rather than stage cowardly attacks on my persona. I'd welcome your logical counter-arguments if you have any.

  • fundmanager1 fundmanager1 Jul 16, 2013 12:56 AM Flag

    Indeed one has to ask WHY did they go to the finance/lease option which doesn't bolster EPS as much as direct sales.

    You conclude they did so out of desperation because the backlog pipeline is weakening.

    In all fairness to the Muskrat, could it be that they simply wanted to focus on increasing their customer base and lease options get more people to buy a Model S? ________

    I'm wondering if you have any other evidence that would bolster your theory that the backlog is weakening substantially (I'm guessing it is too, but would like confirmation)? ________

    Everyone is in the dark now that Muskrat is mum about backlog stats.

  • Say, Musk, honestly can you tell us:

    1. When you'll be HONEST about your backlog numbers which you said last quarter that the company isn't going to provide?

    2. In this quarter's earnings report, will you provide a breakdown of your new "lease sales" versus cash sales so investors can truly understand how a higher ratio of lease sales will adversely affect EPS due to revenue recognition issues?

    3. Is you BACKLOG GROWTH RATE declining at the same time your PRODUCTION GROWTH RATE is increasing (E.g. "Book-To-Bill" ratio)?

    MUSK: "I"m sorry, this interview is over." (Hey, that's what The Muskrat did recently to an interview who was asking some tough questions).

    (Listen up fanboys: brutal honesty is needed for you dreamy children who don't understand Ponzi schemes)

  • When Zimmerman is acquitted and the TrayBama riots start happening. Jury in deliberation over the weekend. Hunker down on Monday, folks...

    Widespread social unrest is a really good reason to buy more firearms to protect oneself and one's family.

  • fundmanager1 by fundmanager1 Jul 12, 2013 2:19 AM Flag

    With today's tweet about TSLA production at 400/week, shouldn't we be asking this question:

    Isn't their backlog more essential to evaluating their business -- not necessarily production?

    Sure, Musk can produce a lot of cars to fill the long-delayed deliveries now, but I would like to hear about the strength of their order pipeline!

    But note that Musk stated last quarter that they're not going to be releasing backlog info to the public anymore, correct? So we don't really know what's up.

    For all we know, he could be ramping up production to consume their backlog so there's less of a lag between order & delivery. Thus, higher current production may not necessarily serve as a solid predictor of future profitability.

    It's kind of analogous to the semiconductor industry's "BOOK-TO-BILL RATIO:" Right now their book to bill ratio would be higher than 1.0 (1.0 mean bookings = billings) because they have an order backlog relative to how many cars they can deliver.

    So the real question is what is TSLA's CURRENT "BOOK-TO-BILL RATIO?"

    Additionally the ramp in production may be to satisfy the many recent lease "sales" which carry lower margin because not all of the "sale" can be booked in the current quarter.

    Comments anyone?

  • Reply to

    Musk: "400 a week...and not trivially above it"

    by curt.renz Jul 11, 2013 10:56 AM
    fundmanager1 fundmanager1 Jul 11, 2013 10:25 PM Flag

    Isn't their backlog the key to the whole mystery about their business -- not necessarily production?

    Musk can produce a lot of cars to fill the long-delayed deliveries now, but I would like to hear about the strength of their order pipeline!

    But note that Musk stated last qtr that they're not going to be releasing backlog info to the public anymore, correct? So we don't really know what's up.

    For all we know, he could be ramping up production to consume their backlog so there's less of a lag between order & delivery.

    It's kind of analogous to the semiconductor industry's "book-to-bill" ratio: Right now their book to bill ratio would be higher than 1.0 (1.0 mean bookings = billings).

    So the real question is what is TSLA's "book-to-bill" ratio?

    Additionally the ramp in production may be to satisfy the many recent lease "sales" which carry lower margin because not all of the "sale" can be booked in the current quarter.

    Comments anyone?

GOGO
16.48+0.05(+0.27%)Dec 24 1:00 PMEST

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