video. There are 2 deals of similar size, both expected to close this Q. If only one of them closes I see $1 minimum. As to chances of the deal closing, The U.N. this weekend reaffirmed resolutions pledging money to develop infrastructure in poor nations (3 different resolutions), China, and The U.S. both have money set aside for infrastructure development in nations from S. America, Asia, and Africa. Without Spatial data, no nation can compete globally. So as badly as Intermap needs this deal, I assure you their client needs it more. I can't see a reason the deal does not close, I can't see why a lying CEO would say "the next few weeks" when he could have said "by end of 4Q". I can't see why any Nation would not close an SDI deal. For the life of me, I don't see the down side here. The recent negative SA article, I agree with as far as it being a risk factor, but I just don't see it playing out that way. Vertex has a great deal to loose, and a great deal to gain, all based off off Intermaps performance. I do not see a down side here. I see $2 by EOY, and believe in the 20-30% growth per year the CEO stated. This is an investment worth pursuing. (don't bet the farm)
Maybe you have not heard of the UN, a mostly useless organization that just last week reaffirmed a commitment to dedicate Billions to developing Nations. China Has dedicated $1T to Africa, The U.S. is spending hundreds of Millions in Asia and South America. I probably shouldn't mention 0% interest rates are the norm right now. So no worries on that. But I don't blame you for being hesitant. My advice is don't buy, wait for the first deal to close, and then buy. There are 2 supposed to be closing soon, and more next year. This will reduce your risk while allowing you to still make a very nice profit on this investment. Cheers
Unless your client is a poor nation whose GDP is around $110M, in which case outside funding would be required, the Nation would have little to no experience in completing large deals. I think this is a given considering if they were a developed nation they would already have SDI set up. SDI is a requirement for any Nation who wishes to compete in a modern era
For some reason, people don't seem to get that this deal is far more important to the client than it is to Intermap. SDI is a requirement for modern nations. Sunday the UN reaffirmed no less than 3 commitment to invest in nations specifically like this one. There will be no problem here.
does not help that the over all market is down big today. Today is the wrong day to sell. It will come back up to the high $5s soon enough
This happened with the melanoma data as well. It was driven up going into the release of data, and dropped after. Next events will be pre-clinical HEAT and Plexxikon, should see that Dec/Jan,
You know I love this company, but it will sit in the $5 range, probably recover to high $5s, but reality is, there is very little to expect over the next couple months. People trade this stock based on events. For long term investors we have to ride out the ups and downs, trade a bit, and be patient.
For what MCC is, this is actually a decent response. It is just a bit less than Melanoma, but it gives them more information. 79% still expressing IL-12 is probably the more important data. Anyway, next stage fort them would be to go on and get a combination trial. I don't expect that to happen right away, probably late next year. For now, they are still getting a sold foundation built
I suspect it has much to do with 2 things, the market overall in decline a minor factor, and the bigger one is that the closer we get to Sept 30th, the more people doubt the deal will close. That is the problem when Mgmt gives a specific date, people think it is a deadline, not guidance. Still just as likely to close in the next 2 weeks, but after the 30th the price will likely drop to .32 or so.
Typically there is a process of which a company has no control over. First a bid is solicited, contractors bid, then 1 is given a letter of award, the others are given rejections. The loosing companies are given 7 days to file an objection/appeal, if an appeal is filed delays can last for months, or even over a year. Management seemed confident on the Sept 30 date, so I doubt that is a risk. Next the details of the bid are worked out, if additional services will be required, etc. Financing is achieved, followed by the vetting of the contract by the Nations legal overview. Each of these stages take however long they take, there does not appear to be a limit on time. So the more complex a contract, the longer the vetting process could take, and if any details are of concern, there could be longer as each side has to agree to changes. So there a number of things that are well outside the control of Intermap here. However, the company was very confident on their date, have stated the deal will complete unless there is regional turmoil (I only see that in Europe and N. Africa), and I think the most important point is that there is not any vagueness in the guidance, Vertex was willing to loan them money, and the last loan was at a lower interest rate with better terms for an early pay off. Tells me Vertex saw lessening risk in the company. I hope the deal is closed tomorrow, would be nice to go into the weekend with a nice win, I could also see it close on Monday. However, Oct 1st is the fiscal year for Govt. so there is a possibility that they won't sign a deal till the new fiscal year starts. We shall see.
In Craigs defense here, remember last Dec when Melanoma final data was released, there was a run up in price, and an immediate sell off. Melanoma was far more important data than MCC, and it was very good, but not good enough due to the stage of development. On the other side of things, that was on OTC, this is Nasdaq, might not be as volatile here, and we are getting closer to some very important events. The hiring of a Business director who is in charge of partnering, speaks volumes that they expect more than 1. Though I would not expect that to happen for several months as he needs time to get settled in the company, review prospects, negotiate, etc. So I would temper expectations for MCC data. Otherwise, still love what ONCS is doing
Just to add to this, a "consortium" is technically two or more individuals/businesses working toward a common goal. So in this case, it is possible (though IMO unlikely) that the "consortium" is Intermap plus the most local vendor. If in Africa that would be Darelash or Aptica, in South America, Geosoluciones or UP Services. Which would basically amount to Intermap gets the contract and one of these companies gets a sales commission.
This has been a $3.2B industry, however I have found 30-40 nations in South America, Asia, and Africa that are all in varying stages of installing SDI. Many of them are actually working with neighbors to develop SDI together. I would expect that if you get one, you get all the ones working together. Depending on which Nation this is (and I don't know if they will identify it ever), additional contracts could be for considerable more. Intermap's technology is vastly superior to their competitors.
If you read the transcript of the recent CC you'll see that the full $175M is their portion. They are not sharing. Personally I expect the deal to be closer to $140 with a $50M 18 year maintenance contract.
Must be a reprint. The other deal that is expected to close by year end will not have a letter of intent attached, it will just close and be announced.