Two other possible catalysts to consider are: OPEC cutting production and Republicans taking over the senate. These would add huge fuel to the upside fire. Don't think for a second that this thing can't spike to $55 in days if the shorts realize the squeeze is on.
Unless oil collapses to $30, SLB is a prudent way to play the weakness in oil. It's diversified and earnings were better than expected. It's come down too much. Just pull the 6 mo chart and look at how irrational fear can implode a perfectly good company's share price. I guess the only thing to do now is buy and wait for 6 months. I am betting oil will rebound after OPEC meets in November. SLB will be over $100 by year end.
P.S. only 3 people out of 300,000,000 have contracted this virus here! That's a lot less than 90% which is what the panic is pricing in!
It's amazing what fear does! There is no Ebola threat in traveling unless you get on Air Iiberia and have passengers with high fever sitting next to you! Yet, thanks to the midget minds at CNBC and most other news mongers, everyone is at complete panic state! I can't believe the networks aren't showing the movie "Outbreak" three times a day! They would be selling a lot of advertisements! All I'm saying is that Ebola is horrible but you cannot get it by just getting on any plane. Get a grip everyone and come to your senses. DAL has great earnings and great fundamentals. If not for this ludicrous Ebola scare, it would be north of $45.
Thanks mr for fun. You are wise beyond your ears. Oh, and by the way my prediction will be happening sooner than I thought - given the spike in DO in the face of horrible market and oil prices.
New reality - Drillers are snapping back strongly in the face of a horrible market and dropping oil prices!? Is this the new reality? Shorts can ONLY make money if they cover timely. Is the time now? or will greed overtake sanity?
Day rates have stabilized and some new contracts are now surfacing. Plus the dollar is weakening which means oil will go up and this will improve sentiment. MOST IMPORTANTLY the sell off has been unprecedented and the snap back recovery of the driller stocks will be equally unprecedented. RIG at $45 would be still at a huge discount to historics. There is no overhead resistance until $44!!!!! This sector is about to really heat up now.
Also, I predict in the next few weeks a day in which these drillers will be up 15% in ONE DAY!! That's the start of the bounce back. Mark this post and don't give in to the shortie hype.
Putin is being punished by Saudi's - per US instructions - by oil being manipulated down. Most of the Putin cronies are suffering hugely as oil is their life-line. So this is a strangle-hold de facto sanction on Russia. Once this manipulation is removed, all oil related companies will come back. We will have a V not a U shaped recovery. By end of this year I predict RIG above $40, DO above $45, ESV above $50 and NE above $30. Mark this post and don't give in to the shortie hype.
You may have something here. The news on the outlook for the oil drillers is not new. What's recent is the huge rise in dollar and huge fall in oil - both crude and WTC. These could very well be directed to weaken Russia. Once Putin gives up and comes to his senses, oil will start climbing, dollar will drop and drillers will bounce violently - thanks to the short interest and algo trading.
I don't think they will. But even if there is a cut in dividends, it is to allow more cash flow for operations, maintenance and new rigs. This is a positive not a negative. However you look at this, ESV is only down because oil is declining thanks mostly to Saudi's grand plan to make the US drilling industry uneconomical. So they can stay as THE major producer. But Saudi's can only manipulate so much for so long. The drillers will bounce back.
Well if I were short today's action would scare the heck out of me! Imagine if GTAT said their forward guidance is affirmed or the solar business is OK or Mesa is on track for 2015 delivery to AAPL or they will buy back some shares here or god-forbid if an analyst upgrades it or something. GTAT shorts would then really have to cover.
If you refer to my posts right after the iPhone 6 release that was a point I made over and over again. It was just foolish for investors to expect GTAT to build a factory, refine patented technology, test the refinements and mass produce to meet the millions of sheets of sapphire needed to meet the iPhone 6 launch. Let's understand the iPhone 6 phones were not manufactured in Sept 2014! But months earlier. So the Sapphire was never meant to be placed in the first mass launch of iPhone 6. NEVER!!! There has been NO BACKTRACKING BY APPLE! NONE! Just think about the reality of the events in the past few months. And WHAT A BUYING OPPORTUNITY THIS HAS BEEN for GTAT shares. Those who are buying will be handsomely rewarded soon. IMO.
That's why you diversify dude. Real estate, especially if mortgaged, can be even more dangerous since your equity can be wiped out in a down-turn or mortgage rates can go up, tenants can stop paying rent, roofs have to be replaced, floods and other damages can happen, not to mention real estate bubbles can burst. No one group lost more money than real estate owners in 2008/2009 - just look at the foreclosure and short sales. ESV makes money and will eventually come back, and the dividends will keep coming.
So we're already down $4B in the last couple months. I guess by your logic we're $1B under where we should be. That's 12% higher from here!
Now we short the heck out of it! Because technicals are the only way to trade. Sell heavy now and once above $60, start to buy!! NOT!!!!!!
At the end of the day it comes down to earnings and dividends. If the drilling picture starts to warm up again, or if Russian sanctions are removed, this stock will fly back up to mid $30s or even $40. And the snap back could be in days not weeks. So all this mumbo jumbo about age of CEO, who left the Board or how much debt the Company has would be completely irrelevant in light of the recovery from the extra-ordinary recent sell-off.
My point is why is the sentiment so negative? You post as if ESV is overpriced here and should be discounted due to bad management. The fact that ESV has lost 20+% of its market cap should take this into account to a large degree, no? So your post seems like an attempt to pile on. If one has perspective and a little time, ESV could be a hugely profitable investment from here. The overly pessimistic view of CNBC pundits and most on the driller boards really makes me ultra-bullish at today's prices.
This looks and smells like capitulation. The best thing to happen now is to open lower tomorrow, go down another 5% and reverse intra-day to finish up for the day. That's like the green light for pro's to move in for a short-term long trade. Then you could see the $5 move up within days.