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future_is_fiber 206 posts  |  Last Activity: 19 hours ago Member since: Jun 22, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Why is China so Important for HLF?

    by iberica007 Jan 21, 2014 12:39 PM
    future_is_fiber future_is_fiber Jan 21, 2014 1:31 PM Flag

    From my buddy who works for a Chinese broker: HLF doesn't do business in China like NUS does. Their methodology is completely different. They are much more compliant with the Chinese Province rules as they've already negotiated and accepted a large number of adjustments to their business model. China will not have any problems with HLF.

  • Reply to

    After hours ???

    by alokamas Jan 22, 2014 4:13 PM
    future_is_fiber future_is_fiber Jan 22, 2014 5:30 PM Flag

    False alarm. Just a rogue trade reported on Yahoo Finance. No drop in AH.

  • Reply to

    What is the forecast for next quarter?

    by shortofaname_99 Jan 22, 2014 5:28 PM
    future_is_fiber future_is_fiber Jan 22, 2014 7:01 PM Flag

    Oops - looks like this turkey is done - retrace 50% of recent run - buy again around $68.

  • Reply to

    Some news for the Senator

    by squeezetracker Jan 23, 2014 10:38 AM
    future_is_fiber future_is_fiber Jan 23, 2014 2:23 PM Flag

    The senator's letter sounds like was dictated by Ackman. Mmmm... very suspicious...

  • future_is_fiber future_is_fiber Jan 23, 2014 5:41 PM Flag

    Because of Egoman, I mean Ackman.

  • Reply to

    Ramey joining Bill Stiritz...

    by rlyallz Jan 27, 2014 3:01 PM
    future_is_fiber future_is_fiber Jan 27, 2014 3:07 PM Flag

    That's optimistic. But LBO at $90 is very possible - It's only at 18 times earnings then. Of course, any short squeeze could spike this up higher.

  • future_is_fiber future_is_fiber Jan 27, 2014 7:58 PM Flag

    I agree that the market (and public company executives) is full of manipulation and covert ops for the benefit of few at the cost of many. You need to learn to play the game though. For instance, JKS was pumped before the dump. But you can also use such an opportunity to add to JKS after the dump since the fundamentals of the industry, or the aggressiveness of the Chinese, Japanese and US solar push has not abated. This is a buying opportunity to pick up some of the best-of-breed. I also like FSLR here as it didn't participate in the recent pump action - thanks to crooks at GS who pushed SCTY and poopoo'd FSLR - I loved their "reasoning": paraphrasing: FSLR is downgraded since the future is not in utility-scale installations but in home roof installations. LOL, they said that with a straight face, with a huge conflict of being investment bankers for SCTY, and ignoring the 10 P/E of FSLR. Go figure...

  • Reply to


    by tannazs26 Jan 27, 2014 10:25 PM
    future_is_fiber future_is_fiber Jan 27, 2014 11:54 PM Flag

    Great post. I hate the Cook arogance coupled with the Board's lack of focus.

  • Reply to

    fslr: 2007-2008 history repeats

    by kevinvests Jan 28, 2014 2:04 PM
    future_is_fiber future_is_fiber Jan 28, 2014 2:40 PM Flag

    Are you a GS paid basher? GS cannot hold down FSLR much longer. PE under 10 with projected growth of 35%!!! Talk about manipulation! This one will pop violently soon.

  • future_is_fiber future_is_fiber Feb 3, 2014 4:47 PM Flag

    Or maybe they were calling it from their research on the current quarter being better than expected. And, looks like they were RIGHT based on the earnings just out now. YUM is up over $4 per share!!! Great call RBC.

  • Reply to

    Hang on.

    by observerxxx Feb 3, 2014 4:05 PM
    future_is_fiber future_is_fiber Feb 3, 2014 4:54 PM Flag

    This one has a huge Put - it's called AAPL as a customer. Why would AAPL front almost $600 million to GTAT to help it ramp up Saphire production in AZ plant if AAPL didn't plan to buy a significant amount of it? This may be the short-squeeze candidate of the year.

  • Reply to

    Hang on.

    by observerxxx Feb 3, 2014 4:05 PM
    future_is_fiber future_is_fiber Feb 3, 2014 7:26 PM Flag

    Even if so, AAPL must see something extra special in GTAT and their Saphire technology to want to "tie them up". I wonder why AAPL wouldn't just buy GTAT for about $2B instead of pouring in 1/3 of that amount just to tie them up. AAPL makes that much in 2 weeks!!!

  • Reply to

    Ackman is CRAZY!!!

    by dip_199 Feb 3, 2014 6:06 PM
    future_is_fiber future_is_fiber Feb 3, 2014 7:37 PM Flag

    This mental midget has really painted himself into a corner here. See, for his thesis to be correct and thus for him to "win", the only option that serves it is if HLF is illegal and must shut-down. Really?? Talk about risk versus reward. Which savvy investor in their right minds would bet $1 Billion on a public company which has been around for 30+ years and has been scrutinized several times in the courts and the government agencies, prevailing each time, to be found all of a sudden to be ILLEGAL!? There must be an explanation which satisfies his outrageous assertion. I cannot come up with it - can only blame his super-ego for not closing this trade after so much effort to push it down.

  • Reply to

    ok. why?

    by muench.john Feb 3, 2014 7:33 PM
    future_is_fiber future_is_fiber Feb 3, 2014 7:40 PM Flag

    Simple reason of fear overcoming reality, if only for a few short days.

  • future_is_fiber by future_is_fiber Feb 3, 2014 9:28 PM Flag

    ARMH chart 4 years ago looks similar to GTAT now. I wonder if history will repeat itself - ARMH was around $10 4 years ago and thanks to it's supply pact with AAPL, it shot up to $28 in months. Then plateaued for a while and then moved up to $50+. Let's see...

  • future_is_fiber by future_is_fiber Feb 3, 2014 9:29 PM Flag

    Why would GTAT's supply pact with AAPL be any different to what happened to ARMH 4 years ago? ARMH is up 500% since then. I am trying to do all my DD but any insights from this board is also welcome.

  • future_is_fiber future_is_fiber Feb 4, 2014 9:10 PM Flag

    If you haven't paid attention to what's going on the past 5 or so weeks, the markets have been taken to the woodshed. During this time, most high-beta companies have been hit hard, some more than 20% from their recent highs. There's now an air of uncertainty over the entire world markets. The economic news has been horrendous. You cannot be puzzled because GTAT stock has not performed in the past couple months. After all, GTAT is up over 300% in one year! You cannot expect the stock to zoom up without more clarity and detail from management of how this huge expansion is going to be implemented. GTAT earnings are around the corner. They need to provide a great deal of information on the ramp up, margins, cash flows, expected sales, timing of orders, etc. Until then, let's be content that GTAT did a large secondary offering, and is going through a major shift in business and has managed to not sell off with the solar stocks which have been hit hard recently. This is a gem of a company and management has proven again and again that they are very capable to shift strategies and bring explosive growth to the company. In the meantime, if you are short, downside is unlimited. If long, it's prudent to hedge by selling out-of-money calls or own in-the-money calls maturing June 14, if you want to limit your risk. Rewards can be huge - just ask ARMH shareholders who held their shares over the past 3 years.

  • future_is_fiber future_is_fiber Feb 4, 2014 9:14 PM Flag

    Just thank them for providing us with a window to accumulate more shares. Also, the more shorts and negatives on this board, the more fuel for the push up in the next few months.

  • future_is_fiber future_is_fiber Feb 4, 2014 9:15 PM Flag

    Author sounds like a GLW employee worried about his job security.

  • future_is_fiber by future_is_fiber Feb 4, 2014 9:33 PM Flag

    It's easy to get caught up in emotion when you have money on the line in any stock. Let's look at this company like the pro's do. Fundamentals: According to their most recent earnings report - Nov 18 2013 - here are some points to remember:
    - Revenue was up 11.2% sequentially and up 47.6% year over year.
    - Shipments of 518.9 megawatts, which was a 6.1% sequential increase and a 54.8% year-over-year increase.
    - Guidance was upbeat, with 2013 module shipment guidance now at 1.7GW-1.8GW from a previous guidance of 1.5GW-1.7GW.
    - JKS has an extremely low cost of production at $0.50 per watt.
    - Management cited increasing solar module average selling prices, or ASP, as the primary reason for improving margins.
    - JinkoSolar's pipeline now has 700 megawatts in utility-scale projects and 400 megawatts for distributed systems.
    - The margins in the downstream business of utility-scale and distributed systems are very healthy with gross margins around 60% and net profit margins of 30%.

    Also, let's not forget that in order to combat industry oversupply, in September the Chinese government mandated that no new solar capacity be built; in order to increase demand, the Chinese government increased its total solar installation target by 20% to 12 gigawatts for 2014; and, in order to shore up balance sheets, the Chinese government announced a 50% rebate on value added tax from October 1, 2013 to the end of 2015.

    JinkoSolar is one of the unofficial winners because China Development Bank has extended the company a five year $1 billion credit line.

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