That's why you diversify dude. Real estate, especially if mortgaged, can be even more dangerous since your equity can be wiped out in a down-turn or mortgage rates can go up, tenants can stop paying rent, roofs have to be replaced, floods and other damages can happen, not to mention real estate bubbles can burst. No one group lost more money than real estate owners in 2008/2009 - just look at the foreclosure and short sales. ESV makes money and will eventually come back, and the dividends will keep coming.
So we're already down $4B in the last couple months. I guess by your logic we're $1B under where we should be. That's 12% higher from here!
Now we short the heck out of it! Because technicals are the only way to trade. Sell heavy now and once above $60, start to buy!! NOT!!!!!!
At the end of the day it comes down to earnings and dividends. If the drilling picture starts to warm up again, or if Russian sanctions are removed, this stock will fly back up to mid $30s or even $40. And the snap back could be in days not weeks. So all this mumbo jumbo about age of CEO, who left the Board or how much debt the Company has would be completely irrelevant in light of the recovery from the extra-ordinary recent sell-off.
My point is why is the sentiment so negative? You post as if ESV is overpriced here and should be discounted due to bad management. The fact that ESV has lost 20+% of its market cap should take this into account to a large degree, no? So your post seems like an attempt to pile on. If one has perspective and a little time, ESV could be a hugely profitable investment from here. The overly pessimistic view of CNBC pundits and most on the driller boards really makes me ultra-bullish at today's prices.
This looks and smells like capitulation. The best thing to happen now is to open lower tomorrow, go down another 5% and reverse intra-day to finish up for the day. That's like the green light for pro's to move in for a short-term long trade. Then you could see the $5 move up within days.
RIG at $160 is as much over-bloated as RIG at $31 is overdone to the downside. Probably $50 to $60 is the neutral range if all the market manipulation was toned back. Same thing for many other drillers. You can't sit back and say SDRL at $25 is now fair value when it was $40 pps only weeks ago.
Interesting to note that exactly 3 years ago ESV dropped precipitously for a few weeks to find support at $40, then bounced to $51 in a month. In the last 3 years, $40 was never tested. If we hold now, it will be very bullish for a quick snap back - barring any other major world events.
How do you feel about life overall? Do you see death as inevitable and so not get out of bed?
hammer, you're right. drillers are never going to make any money again. The oil industry will be closing down as there is never going to be an uptick in demand. We're all going to be using candles and batteries for everything we need to do. I will be buying puts on all oils expiring in Jan. I will be a very very rich man. This is a no-brainer!!! And I will sell my car and use a bicycle to get around. Go candles and batteries!!
Actually news just came in that oil is never going to be drilled again. All rig owners and drillers will be winding down and filing BK. You should short ESV for certain mega profits in the next few weeks. ESV will go to zero - at least that's what the market behavior is saying...
Yea! sell this and buy GPRO - easy money! That one will go up to $300 by year-end.
Check out RIG, SDRL, DO, ESV, NE and most other drillers. GTAT is not suffering compared to that bunch.
I just went through the fundamentals of the Company. Then I dumped all my shares and locked in my profits. It always drops faster than it goes up and the ascent has been turbo charged. And the irrational exuberance on this Board confirmed my decision to sell. Good luck to all. Be careful as nothing goes up like this forever.
Don't jump in with both feet without regard to what's going on. But taking a look at what's going on makes one believe we've washed out now. With so much negativity around this sector, the likes of which I don't recall in the past few years, I rather risk capital on the long-side, collect dividends and wait for the inevitable pop. After all, oil and drilling for it are not fads, unlike cameras on a stick or Mexican fast food chains trading at unbelievable valuations!
This has been the perfect storm for the drillers. Dollar strong, oil weak, day-rates dropping, inventories rising, Opec increasing production, and most importantly, news mongers continually bashing the sector. Well, the tide will rise again and the short interest will give us great fuel to snap back to $40s in no time.