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Nintendo Co. Ltd. Message Board

fuzzhead72 51 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 26, 2014 7:31 PM Member since: Dec 18, 1999
  • Ok, so I've heard on here that RAD is paying about 400 million a year in interest on their ~6 billion in debt.

    Can anyone tell me roughly how much principal they are paying off, on average, per quarter, in addition to those interest payments? A lot of folks evidently feel that recent health care changes will help improve profits, which would allow them to increase principal debt payments.

    I'm not really sure where we can see such info, so if anyone could point me to a source, I would appreciate it. (and then I'd be able to do it myself from now on)

    I'm thinking of possibly putting 15% of my Roth in here, but the debt worries me for the time being.

  • Reply to

    I am sorry if some don't like this

    by airlineprofessor Mar 26, 2014 12:54 PM
    fuzzhead72 fuzzhead72 Mar 26, 2014 4:28 PM Flag

    I think it may hit between $43-$45 in the next 12 months. Is that too extreme?

  • I see that Rite Aid has about 6 billion in debt, and I was wondering where the cash to make payments on this is coming from?

    I was interested in possibly investing in Rite Aid, until I saw the large debt position. I'm worried that as interest rates rise, they may have trouble paying off the debt.

    I would appreciate it if anyone can shed some light on this for me, thanks!

  • I just discovered junkmanlong's beer fund, and took him over the $500 point.

    For those who don't know, it's at go get funding, do a search for junkmanlong.

    I won't say that he was the first one who told me about the stock potential, but his regular, informative posts did help me feel more reassured about the stock, to the point where I ended up buying 2 year calls (leaps), since now I believe this is at least a $45 stock. My AAMRQ investment had already doubled, and those leaps have doubled again. Not a bad year!

    If you think he has in any way been helpful to you, please consider donating a small percentage of your gains to his beer fund.

  • Reply to

    OT AMD

    by junkmanlong Mar 12, 2014 6:33 PM
    fuzzhead72 fuzzhead72 Mar 23, 2014 5:36 PM Flag

    Seeking Alpha doesn't think AMD is a very good investment. I actually bought some, but you've got to realize that it has soared already, and may not quickly 'soar' like that again in the near future. People that got in at the $2 point did well.

    The fact that the book value per share is 75 cents give me pause in investing any more in the company. This isn't to say that I don't like AMD - nearly every PC I built in the past 20 years has had an AMD cpu. However, 2 months ago, when I needed to replace a motherboard and processor, I just couldn't justify buying AMD. Intel had a budget dual core cpu for about $50 that was just as powerful, and slightly more energy efficient than a similar $80 AMD chip. I'm simply too used to getting comparable processors from AMD for less, and couldn't justify paying a premium just so that I could say there was an AMD cpu in there.

    An alternative chip company investment might be Broadcom. (BRCM)
    price is just over twice book
    peg ratio 1.5
    about a billion more in cash than debt
    free cash flow alone could wipe out debt in about a year
    1.5% dividend (60% payout ratio means they could increase if revenues increase)
    stock is still down significantly from $47+ high of Jan. 2011, though rising

    I personally like Broadcom Jan 2016 $25 call options, currently going for about $8.20

  • fuzzhead72 by fuzzhead72 Mar 20, 2014 9:19 PM Flag

    From what I've been hearing, there is some sort of strike brewing that may have an impact. The very short story that I read implied that American management is dragging its feet in giving wage parity to workers at both parts of what is now a single airline.

    I'm not sure I really understand why the company would want to have a strike - clearly there have been talks for 2 years. What would management gain from a looming strike?

  • If you check the current Yahoo finance headlines under AIG, you'll see a link to "Better Buy: AIG vs Broadcom".

    Watch the video, then scroll down and vote for the company you think is the better invesment.

    I believe that just 15 votes would tip the balance!

  • Reply to

    AAMRQ Holders

    by changmpark Feb 18, 2014 10:32 AM
    fuzzhead72 fuzzhead72 Feb 18, 2014 3:13 PM Flag

    In other words, your rant could be summed up: "Get off my lawn, whippersnappers!"

    I'm one of the AAMRQ investors. Yes, it was a bit of a gamble, but I had a strong gut feeling that I would really regret it if I didn't invest at just over $7. I figured that over a 6 month period, I might make 50%. I think it's going to be closer to double.

    Yes, I have sold my first distribution. I still think American will go up a decent amount over the next year or two. I sold the first distribution worth in order to diversify my investments again.

    However, I took the second distribution and bought January 2016 $25 AAL call options with it. I will probably sell the third and fourth distributions to diversify further.

  • A couple of the American related news articles that I noticed this week were:
    A) American Eagle is going to be wound down & eventually liquidated
    B) gate swap to get more international access

    Anyone have thoughts on how either of these will affect the company over the long haul?

  • fuzzhead72 fuzzhead72 Feb 4, 2014 12:45 PM Flag

    No, I don't think so. This will allow me to pay for some vehicle repairs, take a family vacation, and diversify my investments a little at the same time. Keep in mind that 3 of the 4 distributions are still coming. Because of that, those would still participate in any share price increase. If the stock dips a little, I may also put a bit back into LEAPS, since obviously I still think this will go up into the 40's eventually.

  • fuzzhead72 fuzzhead72 Feb 3, 2014 3:26 PM Flag

    Looks like I bought it around Halloween, when American was about $7.35 a share. About 2/3 of our shares are in Roth IRA's, so the taxes aren't as important for us. Each $100 I invested turned into about $290, if I am figuring it right. (adding a bit for the options)

  • I decided to sell my first AAMRQ distribution (~25% of eventual total) today at $34, so technically I guess I don't own any AAL stock at the moment. (I had also placed a portion of it into $20 Jan 2016 call options, which appreciated a nice 71%, from 880 to 1510 over the past 7 weeks) I did it for 3 reasons:

    1) There seems to be a lot of gloom and doom resurfacing in the market lately, and I think it could spread to AAL as well, since it will be a while before the next earnings report. Originally I had thought about selling some at $28, then $30, then $32. At $34, I finally decided to lock in some profits on a portion.

    2) I had roughly 94% of our $$ invested in AAL, and decided it was time to re-diversify. I think we'll also take a nice vacation somewhere.

    3) There are still the future AAMRQ distributions, around 75% of the stock, which will participate if the stock continues to go up.

  • fuzzhead72 fuzzhead72 Feb 3, 2014 9:39 AM Flag

    I guess the question is whether AA has already purchased long term contracts, or if they foresaw that prices might decrease significantly, and held off for lower prices before doing so. Does anyone know?

  • * is the info below good news for AAL (should it drive the price up), or is the info already priced in? I'm wondering how much of an affect this might have on the stock price. Does the company have any way to lock in this low price in the form of lower priced jet fuel?

    NEW YORK (Reuters) - Long-term U.S. oil prices have slumped to record discounts versus Europe's benchmark Brent, with some contracts dropping below $80 in a dramatic downturn that may intensify producers' calls to ease a crude export ban.

    Oil for delivery in December 2016 has tumbled $3.50 a barrel in the first two weeks of the year, trading at just $79.45 on Friday afternoon, its lowest price since 2009. That is an unusually abrupt move for longer-dated contracts that are typically much less volatile than prompt crude. For most of last year, the contract traded in a narrow range on either side of $84 a barrel.

  • Reply to

    sold slots?

    by honest_postonly Jan 30, 2014 2:28 PM
    fuzzhead72 fuzzhead72 Jan 31, 2014 11:34 AM Flag

    Here's the reply I got:
    Hi xxxxx,

    We sold the slots through a bidding process, as part of our negotiated settlement with the DOJ.


    Shelli Cassel
    Investor Relations

    So I guess there's a tenth of a Billion or so to add to first quarter earnings.

  • Reply to

    sold slots?

    by honest_postonly Jan 30, 2014 2:28 PM
    fuzzhead72 fuzzhead72 Jan 31, 2014 10:39 AM Flag

    I have emailed investor relations to try to get a clarification on this: whether they were paid for the slots they had to give up, or not. Since there was bidding going on, I'm assuming that someone got paid. Going by past payments for slot pairs, I would think that the slots given up were worth around $100 million. Anyone else have thoughts on the value of the slots that were divested?

  • Reply to

    Are you guys dumb?

    by standon232323 Jan 30, 2014 1:06 PM
    fuzzhead72 fuzzhead72 Jan 30, 2014 6:49 PM Flag

    I was dumb enough to invest in a "bankrupt" airline! Ha! I feel a lot smarter now.

  • Reply to

    sold slots?

    by honest_postonly Jan 30, 2014 2:28 PM
    fuzzhead72 fuzzhead72 Jan 30, 2014 6:47 PM Flag

    I think this is a valid question, and I'll admit I don't completely understand it myself. I have read articles that said that American had to "give up" the slots in order to exit bankruptcy. However, I have read other more recent articles saying that various airlines were "bidding" on the slots. If they were bidding, then it would seem that they were offering money for the slots. If that is the case, then I think it is reasonable to ask where that money went - does it go to American Airlines, or does it go to the airport hub?

  • Reply to

    What I am missing?

    by polyman7 Jan 29, 2014 7:33 PM
    fuzzhead72 fuzzhead72 Jan 29, 2014 9:25 PM Flag

    That's a good question. I'm wondering - do they still have 10 billion in cash, after spending over 2 billion on merger costs over the past months?

    Also, why in the world does Yahoo show a NEGATIVE $23 book value for this stock? Are they saying that presently, the company actually has a negative value per share?

  • fuzzhead72 fuzzhead72 Jan 25, 2014 12:47 AM Flag

    Couldn't they spend 15% of their cash hoard for something like a 25% minority stake in Alaska Air? Yes, I'm fairly new to AAL - I've only been paying attention for about 3 months, and my AAMRQ is slowly converting. However, I thought that a company could take a minority stake in a regional carrier without the Dept. of Justice getting involved, so long as it isn't a controlling interest. (is that incorrect?) I thought that it was purchasing all of a company, or at least a controlling interest that brought intense regulatory scrutiny.

    I don't think that American is currently interested in another merger, though they might have the experience and cash hoard to pull a smaller one like this off. However, the present political climate would not be conducive - right now. That's not to say they couldn't lay the groundwork for one that might happen a few years down the road. It might not be such a bad way to pull the two companies closer together, deny Delta a profitable expansion, and get an additional revenue stream for AAL stockholders.

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