Steve's newest stock purchase, annual meeting hype, analysts new targets...all fail to stop WYNN's falling short of prior trading range. A slow fallback into low 90s..high 80s most probable while waiting for all those wonderful new casino projects. IMHO.
Answering my own analysis above...220 on Mar.8th WAS a swan song..and support today 4/14 is exactly at 207. And general Market peaking action seems to make PNRA break 207 and head down to
the 195 support..stopping briefly at 200. We'll see.
That's it, as I see it. A headline about Dunkin CEO's compensation being halved last year, because of slowed US sales growth won't help DNKN either. And a PE in the mid 40s doesn't jibe with single digit continued growth...with the burden being now placed on new regional franchisees, who may or may not prosper (especially if they are increasingly crowded out by competitor OSRs and even other DNKN franchises.
The stock had a great run. But momentum is totally absent in these latest 3 days of its chart. Always IMHO
Phoenix just broke a century-long record 67 day drought tonight with a light sprinkle. Will they donate their water to Steve?...with 4 mil. thirsty people at their end of the CAP canal?
Breath of fresh air, bulbtrader! If this Bull run can be made eternal, the banks might spring for a prop for most of this year. They seem ready to finance Steve Wynn's fanciful Lake-in-the-Desert and Starbux Roast/Brew extravaganza in downtown Manhattan. Why not finance a non-existant III.?
He essentially asks, what upcoming news can be as positive as Model 3 order overun?!...the shortsqueeze that it set off is now at an end, with today's fallback and tomorrow's expirations. A new squeeze is most improbable with all the onus on Tesla to come up with more financing, faster production lines, and NOT burning most of the "refundable" registration cash that is now so desperately needed for expanding operations. Chart is poised for fallback.
Future franchises are pie (donuts) in the sky. Momentum has coasted to a stop, and chart indicators are turning negative. Baskin and Dunkin are attractive operations...but PE is stretched, overhead recovery resistance sets in at this price, and the general Market is weakening noticeably. Time to be happy with a nice runup, without waiting for spurt to a new recovery range.
Very little further chatter about CLR being an acquisition target by larger oils...they have enough troubles.
Also, a stock predominantly held by its CEO almost always resists being bought up. (Sort of like a house listed by its longtime owners...they value it higher than the Market does). CLR chart is definitely weakening.
The "expectations" are dying, and the news of shutdowns of the economy in fracking regions of the country are demoralizing. Next week, particularly after hopes for oil stablization fade, CLR should have a nice fade down to its 26 chart support, and then perhaps a drop into the 22-16 range if oil/barrel skids into low 30s.
JMHO as chartist/psych trader, not oil-wise.
..the consortium of Colorado River water users? Who cuts back on water use? Phoenix, probably.
You offer a bargain that you can't deliver.. you get lots of takers. "If it looks too good to be true...etc."
Two of my 3 brokerages have none to short...the 3rd charges interest, of course. 4/5/16 afternoon action was definitely shorts being squeezed. When the MAJORITY of active traders are on the sell side, upward moves
are nearing an end. It's only legitimate longs who can prolong the upward pain, and right now they've "shot their wads"...some of them by just putting down their "refundable" Model 3 deposits, hoping for tax support from both Fed and States to pay for their (someday) delivery. The big money have either already fully invested all they want to risk, or else putting big money on the short side for a long term inevitable collapse of Tesla fund-burning, new-issue dilution, appropriation of "refundable" deposits, wasteful "hurry-up" production, etcetera, etcetera (as Gilbert & Sullivan might add).
That's why most of the reputable analyst outfits (S+P, Thomson Reuters, Deutschbank, Smart Consensus, etc. do NOT rate TSLA a buy at these levels. The majority trader opinion will always prevail...even in an irrational exuberance, like the current Musk-driven $$Billions of so-called purchases. Most of these shorts are in the stock, not put options, because no one can tell how long the insanity will run before running its course.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Not much longer to celebrate.
So-called "ultimate oscillator" was sharpest negative turn. DJIA 100-pt drop just before was no help.
Facebook will be around many years from now, and probably the leader in social chitchat still. BUT...the
shares may be peaking as we speak. It's been a struggle these last 2 months, just to barely regain the early Feb. high. And the Mkt looks a bit "peaked" itself. IMHO.
How many cancel when Fed credit expires? How will Tesla raise the capital to build for all those order?..stock dilution? Can batteries be supplied at that level? Will this aged Bull Mkt crash before even the first Tesla rolls off the assembly line. How many cancellations then?....how to raise capital to build the order left? Etc.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Next year we'll see how many 27-yr olds will have enough more than that $1K to actually BUY!
Of course, the car will have to be available first.