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The Governor and Company of the Bank of Ireland Message Board

g7game 22 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 7, 2014 1:21 PM Member since: Mar 10, 2004
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  • Reply to

    G7.....Estimates of Value Please

    by jfdavis007 Aug 6, 2014 1:54 PM
    g7game g7game Aug 7, 2014 1:21 PM Flag

    Hi, JD,

    I'm off on holiday tomorrow (La Provence, France), so I will have some time to go through BOI's valuation.

    @ wyotrader : Because I am now in cash doesn't mean I have been in cash since last year. I did not miss the the nice profits last year or this. However since about a month I have been sittings on the sidelines, since the market it HIGH and I remember the investing truth : Buy Low, Sell High :)

    good luck :)

  • Really glad that I am all in cash.

    The smell of panic wafting in from Ukraine

  • g7game g7game Aug 5, 2014 8:15 AM Flag

    Your guesstimating is completely incorrect :)

    There are about 31 billion shares of Bank of Ireland and these are noted in euros.

    Now what you are talking about is how many ADR tracker certificates there are. I dont know and that info is hard to find.

    However there are 40 shares per ADR tracker. The tracker is traded in the US as IRE. It is not a share, but represents 40 real shares.

    So, just as a theoretical exercise, let's assume all the real shares are represented by the IRE tracker; then you would have 31/40 billion trackers ie 775 million IRE's.

    However there are NOT 775m IRE's in existence.

    Easy isn't it :)

    good luck, the share and tracker are substantially undervalued at the moment. I would estimate a fair price of 0.35 euros a share or 0.35*40*1,34 dolaars per ADR ($18.76)

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    The next BOI ?

    by g7game Jul 31, 2014 10:00 AM
    g7game g7game Aug 4, 2014 8:30 AM Flag

    too late :)

    The bank was nationalized during the weekend.

    Shares are now worthless.

    Quite a show, just like the good ol' days in 2008 !

  • Reply to

    AIB public manipulation

    by jsalis400 Aug 3, 2014 4:53 AM
    g7game g7game Aug 3, 2014 8:05 AM Flag

    Very true, but however, somebody HAS to own them :)

  • Reply to

    The next BOI ?

    by g7game Jul 31, 2014 10:00 AM
    g7game g7game Aug 1, 2014 8:09 AM Flag

    It trades on NYSE-EURNEXT, so it should be possible.
    France, Belgium, Netherlands and Portugal are on that exchange.

    good luck, but be careful Banco Espirito Sancto has already dropped more today
    and the bottom could be a lot lower.

  • Anyone fancying a bit of BOI type speculation could do worse than buy into BES.LS.

    Dropped today to 1/3rd of Tangible Book Value.

    They have a capital raising to do, so today's price may still be way to high.

    It's tempting me though for a small position :)

    Dropped 50% today !

    And like BOI in Ireland, it is the largest bank in Portugal.

    good luck :)

  • Reply to

    Estimate 1half 2014 results

    by g7game Jul 1, 2014 6:55 AM
    g7game g7game Jul 30, 2014 9:27 AM Flag

    Looks like AIB managed to reduce their impairments from bad loans down to 92m from 744m ! 88% less !!!!

    Now if BOI can do the same expect a positive half year ! Let's say 400m euros in the black.

    AIB share price hasn't moved much (4%) and the volume traded is up but not dramatically.

    Status Quo ?

  • RBS which owns Ulster bank is going to split it into 2. One part merging with NI operations,
    the part in the Republic will look for a parnter os a sale.

    a portion of the text in today's FT

    RBS advisers say one likely outcome is a combination with other smaller Irish lenders, such as state-owned Permanent TSB, or the Irish subsidiaries of Denmark's Danske Bank and Belgium's KBC. It may also include a merger with the Irish loans sitting in Lloyds Banking Group's bad bank.

    Looks like there will be three large bank market when all the dust settles.

  • BOI must let other banks access to their customers, and give them a chance to change bank.

    EU ruling on the BOI bailout.

    So the scenario of 2 banks in the Republic is not going to happen.

    KBC will grow at BOI's expense.

    quote
    Bank of Ireland has allowed rival KBC to promote its current account products to 350,000 personal customers under the terms of a restructuring plan agreed with the European Commission last year.

    KBC is the first bank here to avail of the so-called “customer mobility” measure, which allows competitors of a certain scale to promote their products to Bank of Ireland customers.

    Bank of Ireland has agreed to do this twice a year out to the end of December 2016.

    Switch accounts
    The advertising material from KBC urges Bank of Ireland customers to switch their current accounts to the Belgian group to save money.

    “As a Bank of Ireland customer, by changing your current account to KBC and using your KBC debit card for cashback to avoid any ATM charges you could save up to #$%$70.40 per year,” KBC’s covering letter states. “Gives us a try. We’re sure you’ll like us.”

  • Cash is King

  • Article in today's FT.

    Ireland house prices raise fears of a new bubble

    By Vincent Boland in Dublin

  • Reply to

    Watch this staff.

    by dgraive Jul 5, 2014 12:03 PM
    g7game g7game Jul 7, 2014 8:30 AM Flag

    The truth is that the banks would love to lend more !!

    However the customers are DELEVERAGING so they are pushing on a string at the moment.

    The new Targeted LTRO's will have the same effect, ie none.

    good luck :)

    Banks drifting lower, one I had owned just got whacked (ebs.vi).

    Cash is King.

  • Reply to

    Estimate 1half 2014 results

    by g7game Jul 1, 2014 6:55 AM
    g7game g7game Jul 1, 2014 6:59 AM Flag

    1,100 - Net Interest Income
    .......0 - ELG fees
    .. 320 - Other income - net
    ------------------------
    1,420 - Total income (CORRECTION)
    ...820 - Operating expenses (-)
    ---------------------------
    ...600 - Operating profit before impairment
    ...600 - Impairment charges (-)
    ------------------------------
    .......0 - Underlying loss before tax
    .....50 - Non core items (-)
    ------------------------------
    ....50 - Loss before tax

  • Reply to

    Estimate 1half 2014 results

    by g7game Jul 1, 2014 6:55 AM
    g7game g7game Jul 1, 2014 6:56 AM Flag

    Tier 2 was 750m euros

  • 1,100 - Net Interest Income
    .......0 - ELG fees
    .. 320 - Other income - net
    ------------------------
    1,320 - Total income
    ...820 - Operating expenses (-)
    ---------------------------
    ...500 - Operating profit before impairment
    ...600 - Impairment charges (-)
    ------------------------------
    ...100 - Underlying loss before tax
    .....50 - Non core items (-)
    ------------------------------
    ...150 - Loss before tax

    However they stated, June 4th 2014, in the last tier 2 capital raising 700m euros 4.25% 10 years, that they are now profitable and generating capital.

    So it sounds like they did better than the above estimate, or have recently become
    profitable. We'll see.

    Good luck Holding or Trading :)

    ps All figures in good old euros.

  • Reply to

    $13.46 in London now

    by g7game Jun 24, 2014 5:40 AM
    g7game g7game Jun 24, 2014 7:11 AM Flag

    But as per the definition, yes you are correct.

  • Reply to

    $13.46 in London now

    by g7game Jun 24, 2014 5:40 AM
    g7game g7game Jun 24, 2014 7:06 AM Flag

    I don't see a death cross as the 200 day is still trending up.

    However the 50 is now below the 200

  • The tracker IRE, is now almost back to parity. Less than 5% overvalued.

    Most european banks trending down, and with the summer doldrums at hand, looks like i'll be in cash for a couple of months yet.

    Buy low Sell high. Gues what ? The indexes are at record highs.

    Good luck :)

  • Reply to

    Interim Management Report Release Date

    by jfdavis007 Jun 16, 2014 11:04 AM
    g7game g7game Jun 16, 2014 12:08 PM Flag

    a pop-up or a pop-down, you didn't specify :)

IRE
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