look long term. Woods McKenzie reported earlier this week that conventional field depletion ahs accelerated the last few years and they are now anticipating organic depletion of 5 million barrels per day for 2016. That is even more depletion than anticipated by Core Lbas as they said around a month back that they swa 3 million barrels per day falling off from conventional fields. Neither of those numbers include geopolitical impacts in Nigeria and Venezuela or depletion due to lack of maintenance and/or paying NOC's (Iraq).
Demand is going to rapidly exceed supply in the near future. Place your bets accordingly.
and the new pipeline adding 600k bpd headed west to China was approved by Canada with only the PM left to sign off on it
Do you realize/understand that there is patient money that will buy oil and store it waiting on the price to go up? And that the Nigerian situation continues to decline daily, and that in 2015 there was the lowest amount of new oil discovered (due to lack of looking) since 1952, and the Saudi Arabia has had to reduce production as their fields were experiencing problems with too much water, and that Venezuela production is ready to fall off the charts as people are beginning to eat cats and dogs to survive, and the petrobas isn't investing to maintain current production, and theat Iraqi workers aren't getting paid and oil service companies are leaving the country due to lack of payment, ...I could go on, but keep playing the short game. Patient, smart money is playing the long game, the cost of storage is meaningless once the reality that demand is exceeding supply and supply won't be able to ramp up in any meaningful manner to cover the depletion for quite a while.
nonsense, the average price for the tutes holding this is much higher than even 100% premium would be. all those talking buy out are smoking some good stuff and have no basis of understanding of the major money that is behind WLL
don't discount the oil service companies pulling out of Iraq, Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela... due to lack of payment and the lack of infrastructure maintenance that has been occurring in these and other oil producing countries. The depletion from that is going to lead to a rebalancing sooner than most thing. Read the last core lab conference call. They predict a 3.3% decline in worldwide production and a 1.2% increase in demand. Those guys are pretty bright and tied into production in just about every formation on the planet so I read them religiously.
and/or that the new completion techniques will result in much better well result than in the past allowing for a much quicker payback. it will be interesting to see the 90 day production volumes on these wells. Any idea if these are in areas that already have infrastructure for nat gas, water disposal, and oil collection?
just a matter of time before the depletion due to lack of services and capital investment in those countries, the deepwater oil, and the arctic oil starts to show. Shale is now cheaper to produce than deepwater, arctic, and oil sands bu tit takes longer for the depletion and lack of capex to show from those sources but when it does it will show in much larger volumes being taken off the market. Oil will rebound big time then but it will still take 24 - 36 months for the paupers (Venezuela, Iraq, Libya, etc) to pay their bills and get service companies back in place and for larger capex projects to be kicked back into gear. I'm thinking $60 - $65 by year end, and back to $95 - $105 by year end 2017 as the heavy capex projects deplete and the paupers production tanks on lack of service. I also still place some belief in what the technicians have said in that Russia and KSA cannot continue to produce at these levels without doing severe, and permanent, structural damage to their formations resulting in substantial water cut that will then limit their production as they will not be able to handle the water volumes.
and companies are also pulling out of Venezuela due to lack of payment so expect to see some steep decline curves from there sooner rather than later.