nonsense, the average price for the tutes holding this is much higher than even 100% premium would be. all those talking buy out are smoking some good stuff and have no basis of understanding of the major money that is behind WLL
don't discount the oil service companies pulling out of Iraq, Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela... due to lack of payment and the lack of infrastructure maintenance that has been occurring in these and other oil producing countries. The depletion from that is going to lead to a rebalancing sooner than most thing. Read the last core lab conference call. They predict a 3.3% decline in worldwide production and a 1.2% increase in demand. Those guys are pretty bright and tied into production in just about every formation on the planet so I read them religiously.
and/or that the new completion techniques will result in much better well result than in the past allowing for a much quicker payback. it will be interesting to see the 90 day production volumes on these wells. Any idea if these are in areas that already have infrastructure for nat gas, water disposal, and oil collection?
just a matter of time before the depletion due to lack of services and capital investment in those countries, the deepwater oil, and the arctic oil starts to show. Shale is now cheaper to produce than deepwater, arctic, and oil sands bu tit takes longer for the depletion and lack of capex to show from those sources but when it does it will show in much larger volumes being taken off the market. Oil will rebound big time then but it will still take 24 - 36 months for the paupers (Venezuela, Iraq, Libya, etc) to pay their bills and get service companies back in place and for larger capex projects to be kicked back into gear. I'm thinking $60 - $65 by year end, and back to $95 - $105 by year end 2017 as the heavy capex projects deplete and the paupers production tanks on lack of service. I also still place some belief in what the technicians have said in that Russia and KSA cannot continue to produce at these levels without doing severe, and permanent, structural damage to their formations resulting in substantial water cut that will then limit their production as they will not be able to handle the water volumes.
and companies are also pulling out of Venezuela due to lack of payment so expect to see some steep decline curves from there sooner rather than later.
lot of things have changed since then with respect to well efficiencies, costs, etc. Deepwater, arctic, and oil sands are all more expensive to produce and will be bk before shale will
5% - 10% cut I production for all producers
Oman is the first major non-OPEC oil producer to say it would slash its output in coordination with other countries, as the resumption of Iranian exports of crude weighed heavily on oil prices on Monday.
Oman would be ready to cut 5% to 10% of its total crude oil production, if other producers were willing to do the same to stabilize the oil market, said Mohammad bin Hamad al-Rumhy, on the sidelines of a conference in Abu Dhabi on Monday.
“Oman is ready to do anything that would stabilize the oil market,” the minister said. “5% or 10% is what I think we need to cut and everyone has to do the same.”
5% would cut production by 4 million barrels per day and put the world at a 2.5 million barrel per day deficit and oil would spike immediately. hag onto your shaesr, just a matter of time.
also cheaper than artic and oil sands. cap ex cutbacks by majors in those areas will impact production in 12 - 24 months. Still believe core labs CEO when he said that SA and Russia cannot continue to pump at these rates long term without causing structural damage to their formations. Once Assad is moved out of Syria and Putin and SA make nice again the pendulum will swing.
still on the right side of the green as my grandfather used to say. every day above grade is a good one, the rest is just details and minor annoyances; but it would be nice to see the tide turn here and with others. Never thought I would be able to buy BCEI, CLR, WLL, SLCA... at these levels.
Russia just said that they were okay with Assad having to go. game is getting ready to change...
and for a reminder, here is core labs ceo from 2nd quarter 2015 cc...have to wonder if SA or Russia are starting to see the water infiltration that he predicted. If so, time to go long with whatever powder you might be holding
Phillip Lindsay - HSBC
I have a couple of macro questions, please. The Russia and the Middle Eastern production increases that you suggest are unsustainable. I can probably understand why you might think that about Russia. But, perhaps it's more surprising to hear that about the Middle East. Perhaps you could elaborate on that. And then, secondly, just interested in how you see the U.S., versus the international mix, evolving. This V-shape recovery you talked of. Thanks
David Demshur - Chairman, President & CEO
Yes, Phil. If we look at just production levels in the Middle East, you have all countries producing at, what we would think, would be maximum amounts of the amount that they can prove, very little spare capacity there.
These are carbonate reservoirs. One of the dangers of producing maximum amounts, from carbonate reservoirs, is you start drawing larger amounts of water. And we would think, at the levels at which we see production throughout the Middle East, that they would be in danger if they continue with those levels, for producing larger amounts of water.
And, one of the things about producing water from carbonate reservoirs, once you start producing larger amounts of water, you always produce larger amounts of water, even at reduced production levels. We know these guys are pretty sharp there and that, the statement of we do not believe that those are sustainable, are tied to water production levels
don't feel lonely, got out for awhile but got back in too soon.
I suspect that those with hedges in place are pumping all they can get rid of under the hedging contracts. Once those expire I would expect to see a drop in domestic production.
I'm still waiting on SA and Russia to come to terms with what the CLB president said about their inability to continue current pumping rates without causing irreversible structural damage to their carbonate formations. He didn't hedge his statement at all and seemed to be very certain of what he was saying. If he knows what he was talking about, once the high pumping rates bring in the water and that path is established for water infiltration there is no way they will be able to continue to produce at these rates. Read the CLB 4th quarter conference call Q & A towards the end. Relatively little coverage or consideration of such a strong statement with very serious impacts to long term production capabilities.
Besides that, the fact that KSA has now formed a negotiating coalition and the US and Putin are about to begin talks on Syria leads me to believe that if Putin will move Assad out then KSA and Putin will come to terms on production cuts. Too far under to give up now so will ride it out. Even used my BA and NTI divi's that I have been holding onto to buy more WLL today