Your playing our song Tim, You have the Longs attention , so please start singing like a bird !! & Kudos to being a Med student , its not easy or cheap .
Allergan plans to pay down debt using the proceeds from the sale. It also is committed to buying back $10 billion in stock. Finally, it is shifting its M&A focus to making smaller purchases. As I have commented on The Biotech Forum a few times, if it decides to expand its GI focus Synergy Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:SGYP) and to a lesser extent Progenics Pharmaceuticals (PGNX) make logical acquisition targets. The former has already been linked to Allergan as a possible target.
This whole thing is very difficult to predict, I see a company taking a 20% position in SGYP as opposed to a partnership because I fully believe the company wants to sell themselves entirely but there is a fair amount of data that is unknown to buyer so to mitigate the entire risk, I see AGN taking a stake in SGYP & then assisting in the production & marketing of Plecanatide & then as all data is known they will likely buy the remaining shares, so this is just my logical thesis but we could see $ 6-7 by end of Aug 2016 & any announcement of equity stake would raise the price easily to $14-16. A BO will happen but I've given up trying to predict when . If right now everything was known with SGYP then you could easily see $20-23 a share because it would be extremely difficult to replicate what SGYP has done with regards to the GI space!!
Just the same as successful leaders need to have a clear vision to succeed . Have built a 1k share position over the last 6 months because I believe GPRO has many , many ways to get the GO back into PRO. In 5 years a lot of investors will look back & say wow $ 150 a share why didn't I buy GPRO, remember FB @ $18 anyone ? I did buy but sold around $50!! made a huge profit but lesson learned . HOLD YOUR WINNERS !!!
There will be a day when a person holding Gold contracts cannot simply take physical possession of their Gold , I'm talking Comex, GLD or anywhere , I'm sure Soros & many smart investors has a few Gold Kilos tucked away in their underwear drawer lol
Assuming a peak sales of 1 billion USD, given at least a 12-year marketing exclusivity, the value of plecanatide would be at least 3 billion USD, with industry-standard price-to-sales multiples. As a small company, SGYP will need to partner with a larger pharma to sell the drug. Assuming SGYP receives half of the economic value of plecanatide, this would translate into 1.5 billion USD of value for SGYP. Consistently, the competitor, Ironwood Pharmaceuticals has a market cap of 1.6 billion USD, in agreement with our valuation of SGYP.
SRPT has zero chance of FDA approval, I like taking calculated risks, but buying this stock ahead of decision is just plain stupidity !! Stock going to $2-3 is imminent..... Too bad for the poor kids with this horrible disease.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I would do some research on their actual holdings & also look up the word Gullible . Physical will always win over paper!! Don't you think that having just 1oz of Gold in your hand would be far better than having $100k in an Gold ETF ?? when times gets bad, how would you buy or trade something with an ETF ? LOL
Soros is certainly very smart but don't understand why he doesn't take physical delivery of Gold if he is so bullish . I believe its because places like the COMEX or GLD doesn't have all of the gold owned by investors, its all on paper. Soros should know that Gold & Silver both are highly manipulated & should be @ a much higher price, so very foolish for anyone not to have some physical because ... IF YOU CANT HOLD IT IN YOUR HAND.... YOU DONT OWN IT !!! buying gold or silver in the future will be extremely difficult
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Apr 19, 2016 11:34 AM EDT
However, he said that Synergy is an extremely valuable asset in the biotech industry and could likely be scooped up by one of the two.
According to Higgins, Synergy will likely see more action in the summer. That's when it will have to decide whether to market the drug itself or partner with another company.
"Somewhere in the summer they need to know if they're going to retain the product fully or secure a co-promotion partner," Higgins commented.
He said Synergy could model its marketing process after Linzess, another constipation drug owned by Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD) , which partnered with Allergan to market the drug.
As for whether investors should pull the trigger on a buy right now, Higgins said it depended on their appetite for risk.
"Some guys are pretty quick on the trigger. They'll get in and out pretty quickly," Higgins said. "If you look at the stock in the last month or so, it seems to have a pretty good floor below it.... It's tough to tell an investor to go chase a stock that's up 10%."
"It's a tough call," Higgins added. "I certainly like the stock."
Plecanatide isn't the only exciting drug in Synergy's pipeline. The company is also in phase 1B of its drug, dolcanatide, a drug used to treat ulcerative colitis.
"That drug is really very exciting because it would be a different mechanism action treating colitis patients," Higgins said. "The company is not giving a lot of published details, but in discussions with them, they're very excited about dolcanitide in colitis. It seems to have very strong results."
These results, though, are in very early drug trials, and likely don't have much effect on the company's trading price.
(1st ) is the 2 IBS-C final 12wk studies due in July & Aug 2016.( 2nd ) The NDA for IBS-C will be submitted soon after so that's @ least Sept 2017 & into 2018 before drug is launched . (3rd ) Final approval of the NDA for CIC due in Jan 29, 2017 with subsequent drug launch, so 9 months before SGYP or buyer can make money . (4th ) The OIC is still in P2 & the UC is only in P1, & any further testing is halted according to the SGYP website. I do believe everything will go as planned & I remain bullish but it seems to me if a buyer makes an offer within a few months there will be some contingencies with regards to the pending outcomes I just mentioned & not sure why they would take a risk , albeit a small one to buy the entire company for lets say $15 a share ? I'm sure Paulson has 27.8m shares for a BO & not for the next 5 years !! Gadz is way long !!!!!!!!!!! PS: It seems if Allergan does make a bid within a few months will they be assuming all the risk & shareholders will get less per share ??
153 Institutional Holders
64,231,823 Total Shares Held
Click on the column header links to resort ascending (▲) or descending (▼).
Value (in 1,000s)
PAULSON & CO. INC. 03/31/2016 11,090,000 2,090,000 23.22 36,153
VANGUARD GROUP INC 03/31/2016 6,809,197 221,924 3.37 22,198
BLACKROCK FUND ADVISORS 03/31/2016 5,703,801 392,916 7.40 18,594
STATE STREET CORP 03/31/2016 3,666,776 (149,076) (3.91) 11,954
BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY, N.A. 03/31/2016 2,593,319 8,835 .34 8,454
Listen up newbies, the 1b is only for Plecanatide in a licensing deal , NOT for the whole company since that would imply a mere $5.50 a share based on 180m shares outstanding, I highly doubt this would be the direction they will take, they intend to sell entire company to Allergan, Pfizer or Shire, with AGN being the most likely. Long SGYP
M&A Should Pick Up:
After a record year in 2014 and a very fast start through the first half of 2015, M&A activity within the biotech and pharma sectors have gone dormant as these areas slid into bear market territory. In addition, the Treasury Dept. recently killed the $150 billion proposed tie up between Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and Allergan (NYSE:AGN). However, now those two giants have to go "shopping" to continue to replenish their pipelines. Allergan has already made a number of smaller moves and has said it is mainly focused on "bolt on" acquisitions. This means a couple of small caps could receive some buyout attention from this Irish based giant. If it continues to build out its gastrointestinal product portfolio, Synergy Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:SGYP) has been a rumored target of Allergan. I think Progenics Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:PGNX) makes an ideal but complicated target. The oral version of Relistor should be approved in July, which will exponentially boost sales of this franchise. Distribution rights are owned by Valeant, but that company needs to sell assets to pay down its $30 billion in debt; so a two-part deal could be done.
Pfizer given its history is probably going to go after bigger fish and has been linked to the erstwhile bidding war for Medivation (NASDAQ:MDVN). This is an oncology play that has doubled in the past month as it has already rejected a $9.3 billion offer from Sanofi (NYSE:SNY). The concern looks destine to be bought out by one of the giants for north of $10 billion when all is said and done.
In addition, biotech juggernaut Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD) has a new leader who based on comments is more interested in pursuing M&A especially now that blockbuster sales of its hepatitis C franchise are starting to decline. With some $15 billion in free cash flow and over $20 billion in cash on the balance sheet, Gilead could certainly make some significant purchases especially in focus areas of inflammatory diseases, oncology and liver dise
Name and Address of Reporting
PAULSON & CO. INC.
2. Date of Event Requiring
3. Issuer Name and Ticker or Trading Symbol
SYNERGY PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. [SGYP]
(Last) (First) (Middle)
1251 AVENUE OF THE
4. Relationship of Reporting
Person(s) to Issuer
(Check all applicable)
_____ Director __X__ 10% Owner
_____ Officer (give
_____ Other (specify
5. If Amendment, Date Original
NEW YORK, NY 10020
6. Individual or Joint/Group
Filing(Check Applicable Line)
_X_ Form filed by One Reporting Person
___ Form filed by More than One Reporting
(City) (State) (Zip) Table I - Non-Derivative Securities Beneficially Owned
1.Title of Security
2. Amount of Securities
4. Nature of Indirect Beneficial
Common stock, par value of $.0001 (1) 27,756,668 I (1) By Managed Funds and Accounts
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Paulson bought 21m of the 30m share allotment , he already owned 9m shares so now his total is 27,756,668 shares ( to be exact ) his cost basis must be around $3.50. GADZ is long
Sentiment: Strong Buy
What We Can Expect To See Moving Forward
Moving forward, I have an overwhelmingly bullish opinion of what we can expect to see from SGYP. The reality is that there are few reasons to be bearish and plenty to be bullish. First and foremost, the concept of an acquisition seems to be a very likely one at this point, and if an acquisition does happen, you can expect a big premium. After all, with the Plecanatide NDA being accepted by the FDA, the valuation on the company is currently low. Talking about the Plecanatide NDA, I'm expecting that the FDA will approve the application. This will open the door for strong future profits. Finally, I'm incredibly impressed by the pipeline that Syngery Pharmaceuticals has created. For a clinical stage biotechnology company, their pipeline is one of the best. All in all, things seem to be looking great for SGYP.
Hundreds of applications for these electronic birds will be in use around the world & a 127b business by 2020 several analyst has recently said so if GPRO can take just 10% share that would imply 12.7 B in sales . They will certainly come out with more products in the next few years & several projects are top secret unless someone hears any leaks ? I remember when AAPL was trading @ 7 & left for dead & FB was @ $18 yes, GPRO is down but not out ,Nick is doing the right things, but if sales remain sluggish too long I would look for AAPL or FB to buy them ? Long GPRO
I guess they do not understand the path that IRWD has taken with similar drugs & flied through the FDA process, SGYP is going to piggyback those trials but do it much better, so where is the risk in terms of any FDA rejection ?? Cash is a bit concerning but they are addressing these issues very well, but if AGN comes in after the final IBS-C results sometime around Aug 2016, then SGYP & investors will have loads of cash & all the problems will go away, this company WILL be sold , so all the noise lack of money for product launch is a non issue, SGYP has said many, many times that they want to sell themselves & fortunately their is not a shortage of buyers. Long SGYP