Great article!!! but I'm wondering what author meant by Allergan making a deal instead of a acquisition ?? CNA finance has got a 12 month PT for SGYP @ $ 5.75 ???? someone doesn't have a clue since we will reach that & higher after Aug with IBS-C results , anyway , if AGN doesn't buy the company by then I would think stock price would be around $14-16 as a stand alone & that's being conservative but NO WAY this company stays independent . Long SGYP
When I see Point72 as an investor , like with MGNX where he owns 2.3m shares, I get even more bullish on the company & take a larger position , Steve Cohen has an impeccable track record of picking stocks in the riskiest space of the markets. Bret Jenson takes 2nd place in which I always feel better when he is a shareholder in the same company . Long MGNX
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I'm a fundamental investor , but know enough to stay away from high debt companies, especially in this high risk market environment . Hope you make a pile of money but I'm not in a position where I need to risk my capital to make a few dollars when there are hundreds of other stocks to trade that has much less risk !! I retired four years ago @ age 46 so trading is just for fun . Good Luck
Yes , my 2 cents might save someone a few thousand bucks, investors can no doubt make a dew dollars, IF they can sell assets ? but there is better stocks to buy with far less risk . Their 30b in debt reminds me of SUNE.
Some brave investors might eek out a profit with this toxic stock , but it wont be me , Ackman is down 3b so far, any questions ???
You have done your homework , excellent picks !! I'm already doing research today on RLYP & PETX to set up my trades for next week . I would add SGYP as another BO within 3-6 months . Long SGYP
AAP cannot improve their margins of 10%, this needs to double within a year or I believe Starboard will push them to sell, the best suitor would be ORLY since they do not have much exposure in the East coast & since they have an excellent record of doing successful deals & making shareholders very wealthy . Steve Cohen's Point 72 has the best research team which is why he is so successful, so I believe their firm knows that a deal with ORLY could happen, he bought 1,450,000 shares for a reason. John Paulson is another hedge fund who must have excellent info because he makes huge bets on companies, I always feel good about buying the same stocks as they do, although I don't have their deep pockets lol an average investor still can make some decent profits by following them. Long ORLY
Sold 3/4 when stock was $10 & change then sold the rest @ $ 9.25 Don't see Roche deal happening anytime soon. Would be a buyer again as events change.
Your playing our song Tim, You have the Longs attention , so please start singing like a bird !! & Kudos to being a Med student , its not easy or cheap .
Allergan plans to pay down debt using the proceeds from the sale. It also is committed to buying back $10 billion in stock. Finally, it is shifting its M&A focus to making smaller purchases. As I have commented on The Biotech Forum a few times, if it decides to expand its GI focus Synergy Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:SGYP) and to a lesser extent Progenics Pharmaceuticals (PGNX) make logical acquisition targets. The former has already been linked to Allergan as a possible target.
This whole thing is very difficult to predict, I see a company taking a 20% position in SGYP as opposed to a partnership because I fully believe the company wants to sell themselves entirely but there is a fair amount of data that is unknown to buyer so to mitigate the entire risk, I see AGN taking a stake in SGYP & then assisting in the production & marketing of Plecanatide & then as all data is known they will likely buy the remaining shares, so this is just my logical thesis but we could see $ 6-7 by end of Aug 2016 & any announcement of equity stake would raise the price easily to $14-16. A BO will happen but I've given up trying to predict when . If right now everything was known with SGYP then you could easily see $20-23 a share because it would be extremely difficult to replicate what SGYP has done with regards to the GI space!!
Just the same as successful leaders need to have a clear vision to succeed . Have built a 1k share position over the last 6 months because I believe GPRO has many , many ways to get the GO back into PRO. In 5 years a lot of investors will look back & say wow $ 150 a share why didn't I buy GPRO, remember FB @ $18 anyone ? I did buy but sold around $50!! made a huge profit but lesson learned . HOLD YOUR WINNERS !!!
There will be a day when a person holding Gold contracts cannot simply take physical possession of their Gold , I'm talking Comex, GLD or anywhere , I'm sure Soros & many smart investors has a few Gold Kilos tucked away in their underwear drawer lol
Assuming a peak sales of 1 billion USD, given at least a 12-year marketing exclusivity, the value of plecanatide would be at least 3 billion USD, with industry-standard price-to-sales multiples. As a small company, SGYP will need to partner with a larger pharma to sell the drug. Assuming SGYP receives half of the economic value of plecanatide, this would translate into 1.5 billion USD of value for SGYP. Consistently, the competitor, Ironwood Pharmaceuticals has a market cap of 1.6 billion USD, in agreement with our valuation of SGYP.
SRPT has zero chance of FDA approval, I like taking calculated risks, but buying this stock ahead of decision is just plain stupidity !! Stock going to $2-3 is imminent..... Too bad for the poor kids with this horrible disease.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I would do some research on their actual holdings & also look up the word Gullible . Physical will always win over paper!! Don't you think that having just 1oz of Gold in your hand would be far better than having $100k in an Gold ETF ?? when times gets bad, how would you buy or trade something with an ETF ? LOL
Soros is certainly very smart but don't understand why he doesn't take physical delivery of Gold if he is so bullish . I believe its because places like the COMEX or GLD doesn't have all of the gold owned by investors, its all on paper. Soros should know that Gold & Silver both are highly manipulated & should be @ a much higher price, so very foolish for anyone not to have some physical because ... IF YOU CANT HOLD IT IN YOUR HAND.... YOU DONT OWN IT !!! buying gold or silver in the future will be extremely difficult
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Apr 19, 2016 11:34 AM EDT
However, he said that Synergy is an extremely valuable asset in the biotech industry and could likely be scooped up by one of the two.
According to Higgins, Synergy will likely see more action in the summer. That's when it will have to decide whether to market the drug itself or partner with another company.
"Somewhere in the summer they need to know if they're going to retain the product fully or secure a co-promotion partner," Higgins commented.
He said Synergy could model its marketing process after Linzess, another constipation drug owned by Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD) , which partnered with Allergan to market the drug.
As for whether investors should pull the trigger on a buy right now, Higgins said it depended on their appetite for risk.
"Some guys are pretty quick on the trigger. They'll get in and out pretty quickly," Higgins said. "If you look at the stock in the last month or so, it seems to have a pretty good floor below it.... It's tough to tell an investor to go chase a stock that's up 10%."
"It's a tough call," Higgins added. "I certainly like the stock."
Plecanatide isn't the only exciting drug in Synergy's pipeline. The company is also in phase 1B of its drug, dolcanatide, a drug used to treat ulcerative colitis.
"That drug is really very exciting because it would be a different mechanism action treating colitis patients," Higgins said. "The company is not giving a lot of published details, but in discussions with them, they're very excited about dolcanitide in colitis. It seems to have very strong results."
These results, though, are in very early drug trials, and likely don't have much effect on the company's trading price.
(1st ) is the 2 IBS-C final 12wk studies due in July & Aug 2016.( 2nd ) The NDA for IBS-C will be submitted soon after so that's @ least Sept 2017 & into 2018 before drug is launched . (3rd ) Final approval of the NDA for CIC due in Jan 29, 2017 with subsequent drug launch, so 9 months before SGYP or buyer can make money . (4th ) The OIC is still in P2 & the UC is only in P1, & any further testing is halted according to the SGYP website. I do believe everything will go as planned & I remain bullish but it seems to me if a buyer makes an offer within a few months there will be some contingencies with regards to the pending outcomes I just mentioned & not sure why they would take a risk , albeit a small one to buy the entire company for lets say $15 a share ? I'm sure Paulson has 27.8m shares for a BO & not for the next 5 years !! Gadz is way long !!!!!!!!!!! PS: It seems if Allergan does make a bid within a few months will they be assuming all the risk & shareholders will get less per share ??
153 Institutional Holders
64,231,823 Total Shares Held
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Value (in 1,000s)
PAULSON & CO. INC. 03/31/2016 11,090,000 2,090,000 23.22 36,153
VANGUARD GROUP INC 03/31/2016 6,809,197 221,924 3.37 22,198
BLACKROCK FUND ADVISORS 03/31/2016 5,703,801 392,916 7.40 18,594
STATE STREET CORP 03/31/2016 3,666,776 (149,076) (3.91) 11,954
BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY, N.A. 03/31/2016 2,593,319 8,835 .34 8,454