(1st ) is the 2 IBS-C final 12wk studies due in July & Aug 2016.( 2nd ) The NDA for IBS-C will be submitted soon after so that's @ least Sept 2017 & into 2018 before drug is launched . (3rd ) Final approval of the NDA for CIC due in Jan 29, 2017 with subsequent drug launch, so 9 months before SGYP or buyer can make money . (4th ) The OIC is still in P2 & the UC is only in P1, & any further testing is halted according to the SGYP website. I do believe everything will go as planned & I remain bullish but it seems to me if a buyer makes an offer within a few months there will be some contingencies with regards to the pending outcomes I just mentioned & not sure why they would take a risk , albeit a small one to buy the entire company for lets say $15 a share ? I'm sure Paulson has 27.8m shares for a BO & not for the next 5 years !! Gadz is way long !!!!!!!!!!! PS: It seems if Allergan does make a bid within a few months will they be assuming all the risk & shareholders will get less per share ??
153 Institutional Holders
64,231,823 Total Shares Held
Click on the column header links to resort ascending (▲) or descending (▼).
Value (in 1,000s)
PAULSON & CO. INC. 03/31/2016 11,090,000 2,090,000 23.22 36,153
VANGUARD GROUP INC 03/31/2016 6,809,197 221,924 3.37 22,198
BLACKROCK FUND ADVISORS 03/31/2016 5,703,801 392,916 7.40 18,594
STATE STREET CORP 03/31/2016 3,666,776 (149,076) (3.91) 11,954
BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY, N.A. 03/31/2016 2,593,319 8,835 .34 8,454
Listen up newbies, the 1b is only for Plecanatide in a licensing deal , NOT for the whole company since that would imply a mere $5.50 a share based on 180m shares outstanding, I highly doubt this would be the direction they will take, they intend to sell entire company to Allergan, Pfizer or Shire, with AGN being the most likely. Long SGYP
M&A Should Pick Up:
After a record year in 2014 and a very fast start through the first half of 2015, M&A activity within the biotech and pharma sectors have gone dormant as these areas slid into bear market territory. In addition, the Treasury Dept. recently killed the $150 billion proposed tie up between Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and Allergan (NYSE:AGN). However, now those two giants have to go "shopping" to continue to replenish their pipelines. Allergan has already made a number of smaller moves and has said it is mainly focused on "bolt on" acquisitions. This means a couple of small caps could receive some buyout attention from this Irish based giant. If it continues to build out its gastrointestinal product portfolio, Synergy Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:SGYP) has been a rumored target of Allergan. I think Progenics Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:PGNX) makes an ideal but complicated target. The oral version of Relistor should be approved in July, which will exponentially boost sales of this franchise. Distribution rights are owned by Valeant, but that company needs to sell assets to pay down its $30 billion in debt; so a two-part deal could be done.
Pfizer given its history is probably going to go after bigger fish and has been linked to the erstwhile bidding war for Medivation (NASDAQ:MDVN). This is an oncology play that has doubled in the past month as it has already rejected a $9.3 billion offer from Sanofi (NYSE:SNY). The concern looks destine to be bought out by one of the giants for north of $10 billion when all is said and done.
In addition, biotech juggernaut Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD) has a new leader who based on comments is more interested in pursuing M&A especially now that blockbuster sales of its hepatitis C franchise are starting to decline. With some $15 billion in free cash flow and over $20 billion in cash on the balance sheet, Gilead could certainly make some significant purchases especially in focus areas of inflammatory diseases, oncology and liver dise
Name and Address of Reporting
PAULSON & CO. INC.
2. Date of Event Requiring
3. Issuer Name and Ticker or Trading Symbol
SYNERGY PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. [SGYP]
(Last) (First) (Middle)
1251 AVENUE OF THE
4. Relationship of Reporting
Person(s) to Issuer
(Check all applicable)
_____ Director __X__ 10% Owner
_____ Officer (give
_____ Other (specify
5. If Amendment, Date Original
NEW YORK, NY 10020
6. Individual or Joint/Group
Filing(Check Applicable Line)
_X_ Form filed by One Reporting Person
___ Form filed by More than One Reporting
(City) (State) (Zip) Table I - Non-Derivative Securities Beneficially Owned
1.Title of Security
2. Amount of Securities
4. Nature of Indirect Beneficial
Common stock, par value of $.0001 (1) 27,756,668 I (1) By Managed Funds and Accounts
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Paulson bought 21m of the 30m share allotment , he already owned 9m shares so now his total is 27,756,668 shares ( to be exact ) his cost basis must be around $3.50. GADZ is long
Sentiment: Strong Buy
What We Can Expect To See Moving Forward
Moving forward, I have an overwhelmingly bullish opinion of what we can expect to see from SGYP. The reality is that there are few reasons to be bearish and plenty to be bullish. First and foremost, the concept of an acquisition seems to be a very likely one at this point, and if an acquisition does happen, you can expect a big premium. After all, with the Plecanatide NDA being accepted by the FDA, the valuation on the company is currently low. Talking about the Plecanatide NDA, I'm expecting that the FDA will approve the application. This will open the door for strong future profits. Finally, I'm incredibly impressed by the pipeline that Syngery Pharmaceuticals has created. For a clinical stage biotechnology company, their pipeline is one of the best. All in all, things seem to be looking great for SGYP.
Hundreds of applications for these electronic birds will be in use around the world & a 127b business by 2020 several analyst has recently said so if GPRO can take just 10% share that would imply 12.7 B in sales . They will certainly come out with more products in the next few years & several projects are top secret unless someone hears any leaks ? I remember when AAPL was trading @ 7 & left for dead & FB was @ $18 yes, GPRO is down but not out ,Nick is doing the right things, but if sales remain sluggish too long I would look for AAPL or FB to buy them ? Long GPRO
I guess they do not understand the path that IRWD has taken with similar drugs & flied through the FDA process, SGYP is going to piggyback those trials but do it much better, so where is the risk in terms of any FDA rejection ?? Cash is a bit concerning but they are addressing these issues very well, but if AGN comes in after the final IBS-C results sometime around Aug 2016, then SGYP & investors will have loads of cash & all the problems will go away, this company WILL be sold , so all the noise lack of money for product launch is a non issue, SGYP has said many, many times that they want to sell themselves & fortunately their is not a shortage of buyers. Long SGYP
I'm a research scientist @ PACB, sorry didn't realize that this info would be considered insider information , I suppose if I was just a regular Joe investor doing research it wouldn't matter.
The big traders have been making millions in profits while the little guys have racked up millions in paper losses & real losses for those who cant hang on, they know their time is coming & when they have to buy back shares & hopefully @ much higher prices, LOL B@@strds when news came out of AGN preparing to make formal bid the short interest was reduced by 10m shares so we have real proof that some kind of deal is getting closer ..... Hang on Longs
I doubt that could happen, because you would have an instant monopoly , I don't see much risk in the stock so happy just to hold , there must be @ least a $ 3-5 divergence with both sides not willing to talk anymore, it comes down to can PACB survive alone against a powerhouse like ILMN ? I'd say NO
PACB & Roche cannot agree on a price to get deal done , the average analyst has placed a value of $20 per share, so not sure how far apart they are ? sold half my position @ 10.24 so I'm happy either way, there could be other buyers interested but haven't read any articles on subject. PACB @ least is good to trade for daily & weekly profits!!
The AGN deal is already in the works , do some more research !! AGN will be receiving 33b in cash from Teva in June ,so even if product launches cost a 1b, they will certainly be able to pay the cost or more. AGN may sell their 50% stake after deal or just dominate the GI market, AGN wants SGYP & they can & will outbid all others. Smart money is on the long side , the news broke about AGN in talks with SGYP around the same time that short interest fell by 10m shares, institutional investors have been buying more shares like Paulson & JP Morgan plus many more so no logical bear case to made , but longs are smarter than you ,please keep that in mind before you waste your time posting #$%$!!
SGYP 5/10/16 source: Nasdaq
Avg Daily Share Volume
Days To Cover
4/15/2016 17,333,427 3,635,354 4.768016
3/31/2016 17,306,239 4,189,829 4.130536
3/15/2016 27,282,159 2,016,319 13.530676
2/29/2016 27,882,223 1,518,792 18.358158
2/12/2016 28,077,534 1,956,089 14.353914
1/29/2016 27,470,221 2,345,113 11.713815
1/15/2016 27,720,760 3,679,906 7.533008
12/31/2015 27,640,462 1,648,924 16.762726
12/15/2015 28,666,708 1,349,576 21.241270
11/30/2015 28,552,330 1,385,711 20.604823
Nobody cares about taking a dollar less for their shares , go peddle your #$%$ somewhere else !!! BO will happen via Allergan for @ least $ 15 but I see $ 17 as being their offer, do you really think investors just shelled out 89m for a $1 upside lol
Please don't post on YMB till that concussion from getting hit in the head with a golf ball goes away !! Allergan will be the buyer..... End of story
5 buyers & $25+ upside !!!! will take decent position on Mon. FYI: Take a look @ SGYP , a $3 stock with a BO price of $15+ with Allergan as the buyer, although it may be a few months away.... Long SGYP
Thank You & Happy Hunting
Founder, Biotech Forum
Disclosure: I am/we are long ACAD, AGN, AMGN, ANIP, BIIB, RLYP, SGYP.