November and December are typically slower months in Fracking in the Bakken it is a little cold. By looking at Blogs; employment ads; news and data sites you can gett a better real time understanding of the activity.
1. HEK Power Fuels is hiring in the Bakken, they would not be hiring if they were not increasing business.
2. ND oil Production up 4.6% in December 2012 (prelim release February 15th)
3. Drilling is becomming more efficient thus a lower rig count does not equate to fewer wells on a quarterly or annual basis.
4. Apache major new leases in Montana area of the Bakken announced 2-2013
5. ND Trusts Lands leased 27,350 new acres 2-2013
6. Whiting drilled more wells in Bakken than they planned and will increase drilling in 2013 yet they may release rigs due to efficiencies. they can drill faster and do not need as may rigs.
Bottom Line is TOTAL RiG COUNT does not equal number of wells drilled HEK will have some bumps but sit tight. As was explained to me on a ski lift during the Credit Suise Energy Sumit in Vail a couple of weeks ago.
There is a solid 10 year horizion for the Bakken, some E&P companies will flame out, some big players are waiting to buy out independants but over the next 10 years there will be significant growth in drilling, services transport and pipelines.
Bakken Area Blog Posts January 2013 February 2013
From the window of our home east of Watford City, we watched a rig go up in November, another in December and pads being set for two more. My hubby is busy hauling water and the company he works for is busy hiring drivers. NOTE Power Fuels
PN Bakken: New record high for ND oil production
Preliminary oil production numbers released Feb. 15 by the North Dakota Industrial Commission Department of Mineral Resources Oil and Gas Division indicate that average daily oil production in the state was 768,852 barrels per day in December, a 4.6 percent increase
Oasis output up 101%, capex stable. Independent plans 20 extra wells to understand Three Forks, as well as 6 pilot wells to evaluate all benches of the formation
EOG seeing downspacing successes
2012 Bakken production outstanding and trending upward; planning 53 net wells in 2013; seeing higher than average EURs
Rigs may be released
However, with a $1.8 billion budget, Brown said Whiting likely would release “a couple” of rigs from the Williston Basin, in large part because of new rig technologies that allow operators to drill more wells.
“Because of the efficiencies we’re starting to see, we drilled more wells than we thought we were going to drill in 2012,” he said. “We’re starting to drill more wells per year than what we had historically experienced.”
Montana rig counts have picked up on their part of the Bakken. Apache has leased a lot of land in the next county over from Plentywood on the Canadian border.
Total rig count is down to 187 rigs that are active. In January of 2012, there were 214 rigs (if I remember correctly). The 187 rigs in ND can probably do what 250 or so rigs did 2 years ago.
ONEOK announced last week that they will build another nat gas processing plant, Garden Creek III, near Watford City. Those construction worker on Garden Creek II or Stateline II near Williston will just move over. Supposedly, each of the five plants will have 80 workers each permanently to staff them 24/7. It has been proected that a new nat gas plant will be needed every 8 months or so until 2020.
For Petroleum News Bakken
A total of 27,370 acres were leased QEP Energy high bidder on 22 Missouri River leases; shore zone included
in 306 tracts in nine western North Dakota counties in the Feb. 5 North Dakota Department of Trust Lands oil and gas lease auction bringing in a total of $24,609,206 at an average price of $899 per acre.
Kevorkian Analytics Advisors advises HEK Sell or Short imediately! Over bought! Too much Debt!
KAA advises all clients to bail out of HEK as the company is involved in the evil business of Fracking. KAA states "Owning shares of a company involved in Fracking creates too much stress on investors that have put too much money in the market. It is like betting on when the world will end; you may win the bet but what will you have to show for it. We advise all HEK owners that are over stressed by owning an oil company to SELL now and invest in our best selling book Final Exit."
Moneywizturd this is just for you
Positives from the call
HEK will do 2500 wells in 2013 70% of the business is oil
Cap Ex will decrease substantially from $300M to around $120M tops ($80 M to the bottom line)
Fracked wells are now using 2 to 5 million gallons per frack compared to 1/2 million gallons a few years ago.
HEK can pay down debt from operations and they have liquidity to do more acquisitions.
Power Fluids margins in the 40% range combined company margin shoud be mid 30%'s
last year EBITDA $220 add $80 cap ex savings = $300M without the Power Fluids Revenue = $.83 per share.
Add in Power Fluids revenue and better margins and the number should top $1.00 a share.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
where do you find the Activo & Ford research reports??
Heckman Analysts are listed as:
Boenning & Scattergood
Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC
Global Hunter Securities
Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc.
ROTH Capital Partners
Thanks in advance for your help.
Gsc socially responsible like ultra green must be earth friendly ratings based on non financial social scoring system
Of course they would be anti HEK
Probably the liked solendra and abound solar
ATIVO Claim to Fame ESG screening for investments
What is ESG?
Environmental, Social and Corporate Governance (ESG), describe the three main areas of concern that have been recognized
Other ESG Approaches
Values-based investing approaches, such as Socially Responsible Investing, use ESG factors as non-financial “screening” variables. Socially Responsible Investing (SRI), [also known as Responsible Investing, Socially Conscious, or Ethical Investing],
ATIVO issuing a strong sell on HEK is like this:
"ATIVO issues a strong sell on NOOF. The spreads are too wide to get behind. It is subject to a take over offer but the push is softening, and the existing share holders want a firm deal. We as Socially Responsible Analists advise our investors to not get into this deal."
check the stock price on NOOF if you do not get it
ex-gs--guy you are so well informed on drilling and the oil & gas market could you please educate the rest of us and tell us
How many wells were refracked in 2012? and how many are proposed for 2013?
Refracking wells takes about 25% more water than origional fracking. Wells lose 25 to 50 percent over the first 4 to 6 years. adn wells on average can be refracked 4 times.
In addition, old vertical and horizontal wells that were not origionally fracked can be fracked.
HEK is not tied just to rig counts.
Given that it is cheaper to increase production by refracking compared to drilling and fracking a new well look for increased refracking in 2013.
The wells can be fracked 3 to 5 times with out new drilling.
The past few years of massive drilling just creates a need for future fracking. Wells lose production over about 5 years after fracking. so HEK has a good pipeline of future wells to pump and service as wells age.
as for HEK it has some daily trade opertunities however look at #$%$ Heckman's history and it is easy to see that HEK is the ground floor for a much bigger operation before it is a sell out. IMO look for increased sales, increased earnings, and a healthy balance sheet whe teh next quarters results are in. do not be shocked if there are a couple of extraordinary one time expenses from teh merger. fundemntally HEK should be on a stable path up.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Feds have issues with DT TMobile metro PCs deal. Possible dish Sprint PCS three way using soft banks investment cash. PCS DISH up big when they should not be moving based on prees releases and news.
Reports were that Charlie E was meeting with Julias G Chairman of the FCC to discuss the H Block yesterday.
today the stock hits a 52 week high. IMO there is a deal for the H Block and DISH will be able to get full value for the asset
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The consolidation of spectrum creates value. the more flexibility to move bandwidth the more valuable the combined assets. Light Squared's problem was using approved existing satellite spectrum for mobile applications. I was going to go into the details why Dish can use Light Squared but TMF has nailed it http://blog.tmfassociates.com/
Note: I disagree on TMF's assumption of a delay with the FCC. If DISH can make Falcone go away the FCC will forever be greatful for cleaning up the mess
If dish had a weak link in their spectrum package it was uplink capacity. That is not a problem if DISH gets light squared. Light Squared Mobile application can be dropped and used for satellite uplink.
Then again as the TMF blog notes, it all could be a bluff by either side. Either way Falcone most likely will be in BK court soon. What is certain Ergan has cash, time balls and brains Falcone has ego, debt, SEC investigations and sharks on his butt.
I know who I would bet on!
Charlie Ergan has acquired around $350M of Light  debt from Ichan and other debt holders. Falcone is out of control of light . This gives Ergan more control of a swap of Spectrum with the FCC. Dish's Terre Star and DSB spectrum is worth $6 to $8 Billion once the FCC rules are approved and an estimated $4 to $5 billion as soon as the FCC comment period is up on June 1. Ergan said in the DISH conference call the FCC work could be finalized this summer compared to previous "experts" that put the time line at after the election.
Satelite experts believe the FCC has more trust in Ergan than Falcone and deals could get moving quickly. Colorado's politicians are pushing the FCC to get approvals moving to get jobs going and to show that washington is not anti progress. The removal of Falcone from Light Squared removes the political influence issues and opens the door for teh FCC to move forward based on facts not donations. Light Squared's spectrum is not as good as the Terrestar or DSB spectrum due to the GPS interference but the ability to trade spectrum between DSB and Terrestar and Light Squared makes the three positions more valuable. Plus Charlie controls the cards with the remaining light squared debt holders. If they get greedy he can sit and not trade DISH's spectrum until all of light squared is in his control.