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Silicom Ltd. Message Board

gam_65 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 19, 2014 2:18 PM Member since: Feb 25, 2002
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  • Reply to

    Who of Longs Still here?

    by lokeren45 Jul 18, 2014 7:48 AM
    gam_65 gam_65 Jul 19, 2014 2:18 PM Flag

    With due respect, if anybody believes that SILC lost Intel as a customer doesn't understand this relationship. It is a complex relationship that has grown more symbiotic and strategic over the years. Intel is also a supplier to Silicom of the chipsets and Intel is marketing to its customers new products based on the x86 Coleto Creek set with SILC technology integrated. There is basically zero incentive for SILC and Intel not to work together as it benefits both of them. With Intel doing the marketing of this new product platform and SILC goes along for the ride their is absolutely huge revenue potential for Silicom like we've never had before. This could be a 250MM or more revenue company in 3-5 years.

  • gam_65 by gam_65 Jul 15, 2014 7:00 PM Flag

    It's amazing how fast sentiment shifts. Back a few months ago, SILC could do no wrong and now with nothing different, they can do no right with talk of all kinds of ridiculous notions, such as over expansion of "manufacturing" facility and huge revenue misses. The reality is that SILC's business is very recurring in nature and hasn't historically been terribly lumpy, especially to the downside, even in 2008. Also, SILC doesn't even manufacture anything, they oursource the manufacturing to several different contract manufacturers. They expanded their facility that does testing, packaging and R&D and they did so as they we're over capacity already at the previous facility. The rent difference is immaterial and SILC can't really over expand with their biz model and the way they manage inventory. While the day to day price is set by the marginal buyer and seller and not the majority, over the next couple years I'll bet we're worth $100/share and more. Just wait til later this year when they start announcing big orders with the new Intel based products and big time stamp orders and initial Open Stack orders next year. We will not be at a P/E of half their growth rate in the lowest recent quarter.

  • Article mentions SILC dividend and high growth rates

  • Signs of a turn we're evident the last couple days. Going into the 3rd quarter fund flows are likely to start coming back to Technology micro caps again as there are many values abound. Even if you assume SILC "ONLY" grows 20-25% this year and puts up nearly $3.00 in EPS we are trading at a big discount to this value today. Even a low end 20 P/E puts the stock at around 60 which is a nice 50% pop from these levels. Look for SILC to turn back up this coming week as the new Quarter begins and rebounds to the mid 50's gap area possibly even before they report the Q2 eps in late July. Next week they also will likely announce their earnings conference call and report date which will also wake folks up to focus on the fundamentals again rather than short term technicals and money flows. The great thing about Silicom, is that it is so well managed, and continuously grows over time, that even if you miss its stock price swings you can rest reasonably assured that over time it will again go to new all time highs. They are seemingly well positioned for all the nascent secular trends in technology.

  • Reply to

    A Little Surprise Waiting For You

    by threadender Jun 25, 2014 6:04 PM
    gam_65 gam_65 Jun 25, 2014 6:52 PM Flag

    Another thing that doesn't make much sense, is SILC quarterly results are generally very back end loaded, often times having a major surge in the last week or two of each quarter. So even today, a week away from quarter end, people can't really yet even know the quarterly results, especially with SILC having over 100 different customers and 3 customers providing a bunch of revenue along many product lines. Also, looking at the stock historically there are often large gaps of over 10% either way on earnings days suggesting a surprise, meaning that not much if anything really leaks out otherwise the market would be more efficient. Last Q4 the stock jumped by almost 15 dollars that day so obviously people didn't know what was coming then and looking over the last many years its often a surprise. SILC stock price is also sensitive to the gross margin percentage Q to Q which varies by product mix. Later this year and next the newer products including the fiber based 10Gb products carry higher GM's which will be favorable to the stock. I think here the downside risk versus the upside potential is very favorable, despite the obvious day to day volatility of a micro cap stock

  • Reply to

    A Little Surprise Waiting For You

    by threadender Jun 25, 2014 6:04 PM
    gam_65 gam_65 Jun 25, 2014 6:44 PM Flag

    Channel checks recently from analyst suggest otherwise as the demand for SILC's products have gone up a lot recently with the big shift toward the 10Gb topology. The stock price may very well not be indicative of the Q as many, many micro cap stocks are trading just as bad in every sector. This stock movement has a lot to do with overall market cash flows out of micro caps than any stock specific factors. At today's price we are about 13 to 15 P/E of 2014 estimated eps and this is not giving any credit to the roughly $7/ share in cash.

  • Reply to

    Is this Silicom

    by larrykudlow2003 Jun 24, 2014 9:48 AM
    gam_65 gam_65 Jun 24, 2014 8:16 PM Flag

    The SILC Intel X86 chip is code names "Coleto Creek" so this is not it. Intel is working with many potential customers some of which are big one's naturally given Intel's size and SILC will ride their coat tails. We should start hearing a lot about this in the back half of this year and revenues should begin later this year and likely ramp strongly in 2015. The stock price day to day is just the marginal buyer and seller's auction bid, and doesn't represent long term fair value for the company.

  • Reply to

    Handing out free money here!

    by jdberwanger Jun 21, 2014 1:59 PM
    gam_65 gam_65 Jun 21, 2014 6:32 PM Flag

    Totally agree. JD. Remember what is coming in the back half of this year. The first meaningful new revenue contribution to many of their new product families such as the Intel X86 line and the time stamp line's which thus far has only been a trickle. Remember Time stamp should contribute at least 20MM in annual revenue and higher GM's and the Intel line has 10's of Millions of TAM available and will ramp quick. The stock here is a gift and it will double and triple from these levels in time. The stock price is all about near term sentiment and cash flows from funds. One of these days, momentum will turn back positive and we'll be off to the races again. The fundamental underpinnings of this company are terrific for years to come. Load up while you can.

  • gam_65 gam_65 May 15, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    They were very bullish on their Conf Call. expecting initial revenues from new WebSecSaas the coming Q and a strong ramp in 2015. They say once they get the traction, they will have fast paced quite substantial growth.

  • gam_65 by gam_65 May 9, 2014 10:05 PM Flag

    Looks like they are a large company in China and are the leader. Found this quote on their page.
    Do you know TTAsia, the developer of Sentry EDS, is one of the service providers that can provide public cloud services to the Hong Kong Government?

  • The recognition follows the company's recent stream of partnership agreements with software vendors, service providers and distributors throughout the region.

    The cloud-based CYREN WebSecurity solution was named the winner of a Silver Stevie® Award in the "New Technology Product of the Year" category. Additionally, CYREN received a Bronze Stevie Award as "Technology Company of the Year."

    They haven't even announced any Asian deals and now we hear about a stream of agreements, plus New Tech product of the year. Sounds like Cyren has done a great job getting early traction on this product and are being rather quiet about it. I like it..

  • gam_65 gam_65 May 6, 2014 12:59 PM Flag

    If CYRN can show strong product acceptance in the market place, the stock should be off to the races after earnings call next week

  • Reply to

    this company is a great buy!!

    by nuselrami May 3, 2014 4:22 AM
    gam_65 gam_65 May 3, 2014 8:24 PM Flag

    I agree. In this past PR on the UK distribution deal, CYRN mentions "CYREN WebSecurity continues to gain fast-paced momentum across the globe"

  • Reply to

    Observation....

    by sahmdars Apr 29, 2014 4:31 PM
    gam_65 gam_65 Apr 30, 2014 6:06 PM Flag

    Needham has already upgraded the day after EPS and raised by a few cents to 2.75 this year and 3.25 next and maintained their 72 price target and a Buy

SILC
26.91-0.58(-2.11%)3:09 PMEDT

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