Chart pattern, discovery process, and valuation should support a fast move to about 22 zone, and higher later in year. It is clear their gross margin will rise in Q2 as he said WaferSense, their highest margin products have good momentum in Q2 and expectations for rest of year. Even if revenues drop to 17MM area EPS will be about $.33 again, and then by the 4th Quarter if not the 3rd we should hit new record high revenues over 20MM, maybe even 22 to 23 if Cybergage gets meaningful orders and new OEM's start ordering 3D optical sensors. Mapping out EPS and revenues. If they get in the 75-80MM revenues and earn 1.35 to 1.40 area we should achieve a P/E of at least 20 and could arguably be much higher if expectations for Cyberguage increase.
The pretty close record inventory coincided with a 27 1/2 Million revenue quarter and guidance for Q2 is 21.5 to 22.5 MM. If this "upside" kicks in during Q2 they could blow away this guidance and obviously by carrying and building the inventory they believe by their action that it will materialize sooner rather than later. A 25MM 50% growth quarter would be a big boost to stock price and it should at least be into the 40's if not higher
They have already said to expect somewhat lower sequential numbers. Q1 had some spillover from Q4 and is loaded up from that. It will be up nicely YOY however. I would expect at least 12-14 MM in Q2. I wonder what kind of OPEX guidance if any they will give to get a sense how much leverage they will have in their bottom line earnings. I would expect R&D not to elevate much further but Sales and Marketing may ramp up with the Metrology go to market. I'm not clear on how good their distribution capabilities are in going after new verticals they have not been in before.. Hopefully expectations won't get ahead of themselves and cause any nasty down drafts this year.
As usual Wall St. is myopic. SILC has just built a big moat around its business. Silicom will have their products built on top of Intel chip sets and customers buying these will be buying SILC products automatically. The opportunity is 100 Million and more in revenues annually I would imagine. Of course you give up 2 points on average of gross margin for this opportunity. Your cost to acquire additional customers at that point is basically ZERO and you get $35 MM in profit a year assuming 100MM run rate which I think is reasonable when ramped. They also basically destroy their competition in many aspects which may pick up even more for SILC. $35 MM in incremental profit dropping to the bottom line is gigantic and we're selling the stock here ?? Stupid. He also said that customers are telling them of massive upside projections later this year so revenues can likely surprise big time to the upside
What he said is they get lower prices generally all the time forever, not new thing. At the same time, their costs also move lower mostly in lock step over time. The difference which is really a 2% GM difference is they are giving a bit more discount to larger strategic customers. If you listen carefully he also bascially said to expect huge growth starting in back half 2016 and 2017. Their relationship with Intel has now gone from a supplier of chipsets to add components to a strategic partner. "SILC on top of Intel" Going foward SILC products will be integrated into Intel chips. This is a gigantic growth driver for SILC which will begin later in 2016.
Also lowering EPS this quarter was higher R&D expenses related to launching new products which will sell millions of dollars in new revenues. Good moves long term. Market over reacting as usual in short term
I have no industry knowledge and have no idea about interest in their humidity related line. I don't see any comments from transcripts yet about Intel showing any interest so I don't know where that comes from. The stock may very well double or more if they can continue to execute . I wonder how much of their 3D business is simply replacing lost 2D business which won't give too much new incremental revenue
We have new investors and new analyst coverage ahead of us as well to keep some kind of floor underneath this and the breakaway gap from 10 should never get filled, unless something is wrong, like a glitch in the technology performance in production environments, which so far is looking good. One big execution risk is the move later to the general metrology market. This is all new area for them and what will it take to go to market and what kind of sales and marketing expenses will have to be front loaded here soon to effectively penetrate new vertical markets ? I could see a situation where hopes run high and then slump on possible delays and setbacks of material revenues while running higher expenses to market products. How do they go from Semi, SMT spaces to Aerospace and Automotive ? How aggressive will Weiss and Faro be defending their turf ?
The issue and valuation handicap for this one will be the inevitable Q to Q lumpiness. While Q1 benefited from pushback from Q4 that won't repeat in Q2, so expect Q2 to drop off considerably from Q1 levels and then we'll feel some pain if they guide down to 14 to 15MM Q2. The expenses going forward are an unknown, and how much commissions/ sales expenses are paid on this bump and any capacity issues that require additional expenses. Hopefully we'll get some solid OpEx guidance on Conf call. I'm also looking forward to an update on their new humidity product lines as that has been rather quiet after some confident talk earlier. I don't know how much if any traction that is getting. Given the backdrop of cyclicality of semi biz which they are still only in and the lumpiness quarter to quarter this will only allow for a smaller bump in valuations. If they can successfully also break into the general metrology market in 2017, that will change the ball game and get higher growthy valuations. It will be a bumpy ride of course given the tiny float of shares and momentum up and down. Brace for nasty shake outs along the way to higher prices. Probably a shake out prior to earnings date in a couple weeks as well for the momentum players not wanting to hold into any print
SILC will be going into white box servers and they will also being heading into Telecom data center which is emerging trend currently. Lest not forget they have a strong time stamp solution which should ramp this year after some delays no fault of their own