Larger jump than I expected ($3) from the secondary.
Auto sales number up, before total revenue from Auto is down from prev. quarter.
Wait till on or after Aug.16 to short.
Options again will be wiped out.
Not should, it will be higher than $1.46, probably around $3, they did a secondary at 92, that will increase book value. Net cash is up, net debt is not changed.
I'm not long the stock, it starts to behave like FX, so we'll see what happens after ER.
That was April.
Look at YELP, had a run, and still gap up on ER
and look at YELP's fundamentals, probably worse than TSLA.
I think TSLA will act the same way not because other overvalued stocks are still going up, but simply due to fact that stock prices now follows options, TSLA had many days that options volume is greater than the actual volume of shares.
I'm not a believer in the company, and yes, 138 is ridiculous. and I'd say even if TSLA goes down on ER, there'll be chance to reshort it at current levels. So we'll see.
I'd agree it will gap down some day, but not in Aug, lowest volume month of the year. Funds are not going to sell here, retail would drive it down too much.
LNKD and AMZN both spiked down first and then reversed on ridiculously low volume AH this ER.
I see lots of jumping the asks, probably for the option scam
some major funds may be getting out from GS downgrade to now, I'd agree with the heavily volume topping here. FMR got completely out of NFLX a few years ago at 220-240, per their filing. NFLX topped at 300, so judge it for yourself. I'd play the November ER, or maybe Fed is gonna tank the market before that, who knows.
I expect the book value would rise to $3/sh due to the capital raise. That gives the topping P/B @60-80 to nearly $200/sh, which is scary.....
Judging from the actions from LNKD and AMZN, I would not bet on a AH/post-ER GAP DOWN. Volume is getting ridiculous in AH, very very few capital needed to screw everyone.
I think the hedge funds are trading this like FX, so beware, both upside and downside.
The only ways for it to down is during regular hours with news, or with NDX in major downturn, which isn't happening, and will not happen in August for sure.
I'm out with loss, should've never traded physical shares.
Please use a stop.
You may hit a big one with this, but one day you'll blow your entire account on one trade (esp on margin) if not managing your risk properly.
Now maybe at a loss for the year, the next three quarters are all projected to losses.
I was waiting for a double top, apparently, this is not a double top.
This may go to 106-110 short term. It's better to just short calls OTM than an outright short.
95C as of today's average cost is about 1.5, I'd say around 96.5 close. Will short 97.5C in the last 30minutes, may buy shares to cover if ITM.
I think the true reason is that from now on, Tesla can do more capital raise without Musk committing capital anymore.
And yes, expect more secondary from now on, this is just the beginning.
OpEx pin works when the capital loss associated with the pin is less than capital gain from Option expiry.
With market reversal today, you really think it's still worth it to pin? Or they can simply close out those options.
It's not going to affect Netflix short term
but in the long term, I see them being forced into overleveraging into original content and possibly be wiped out should another recession hit in 2-4 years.
the question is not why would he sell, but why he bought in the first place.
If he only bought because of the DOE restriction, then there is a problem.
His average price is much much lower than 87, even just counting the shares he bought in the OPEN MARKET, it's still in the 50s, combined than with his original stake at 0.01, which was restricted by the DOE for sure, his average price is low enough to be ignored
Why wouldn't he sell now to repay the GS loan right away? It's not that he had the option before.
same high volume on 85puts today, OI is already up to 5K, highest OI of all strikes this week.
Now if that is possible, maybe someone is betting that Musk will be uploading his shares this week.
DOE loan is paid back tonight or tomorrow?
So that means Musk is free to sell on Thursday?
I bet his two previous purchases in the 20s range were forced also, since it coincided with two previous capital raise as well.
directional bets - spreads, in your case, put spreads
sideways w/ uncertainty, go for some broken wing butterfly skewed to the downside.