2 days ago? It reaked earnings miss and leak..... the volume was huge!
I would have been 2 hands full based on what we knew as facts but the volume made me hold back.
Good for those that took advantage as I think this market can be very rigged but I just have no proof.
good call and insights.....reading between the lines. supports the insider buying and conservative guidance which i appreciate.
Does INFN's guidance and news give you reason to believe NPTN is set to benefit?
I am buying
1) Obviously the warning last quarter despite the upbeat guidance the quarter before - is mgt being honest?
2) The numbers dont jive....if business is looking good and deals arent lost, why is Q4 such a moderate single digit increase and decrease YOY?
3) Decrease in margin % significant? Are they giving away product again and fiberlan.....completely contradicts mumble jumble's opinion that pricing has stabalized
4) Op expenses $2MM above guidance? How do they not know this ahead of time?
5) Very hesistant comments from CEO on Fiberlan near term. Anyone can throw out $100MM revs in 5 years without basis but the near term doesnt give confidence, pipeline doesnt translate to revs and sales cycles are much longer
Question is... was last quarter a throw in the towel and we have reached a stock low? Or do we have to wait for a year before a 'maybe' execution on fiberlan etc?
Curious if its worth a nibble before this apparent 'exciting news' Narrod indicated that he will shortly share?
Thoughts on this?
why calix over zhne based on valuation and opportunity? Institutional following?
I would think that if you are convicted in the space, you need to invest in ZHNE
no - not a peep.
But, I would assume if there is any plan to spin off the business, regarless of execution, will automatically create a 20-30% increase in share price based on similar companies taking that approach.
I would assume if he has a plan it should be a good one, minus the execution element.
It is time to buy
GM% increases QOQ - 20% to 26%
QOQ EPS inceasing from -.24$ to $.01 earnings
Buying accretive revenue @ .5x sales - obviously sale not good news for EMKR
Why would anybody not mortgage the house and buy$ big time? There is no other fiber optic company with better position at this time...
'Further, the company updated its outlook for the third quarter. The firm sees adjusted results in a range of a net loss of $0.04 per share to earnings of $0.06 per share. Revenue is estimated in the range of $80 million to $82 million.'
Midpoint is penny profit vs consensus 10cent loss, revenues up, buying accretive business, insides buying.
This stockis dirt cheap!
should have pushed the stock back to well over $3. They raised guidance and are expanding product lines and being opportunistic. Insider buys showing convction not too long ago.
picking up some shares at these levels.
After yesterday's price movement, I would have expected a warning.
where is the stock at alyssa ? that is all that matters.
i made a mistake as I have sources that indicated that chunk as an insider purchase and it turned out to be options granted at nothing.
im making money though and you were wrong so just chill brother and take your beating like a man.
sorry bro for your loss and incorrect prediction. Everyone makes mistakes so just move on and hope your next trade pans out.
not intentional ....my source was wrong and it was a mistake. i dont owe you jack. I am here just to monitor the direction of NPTN shares and glad i reloaded in a big way at 2.58
yep....long and really think you are on the wrong side of the trade here at the worst time. TNAV has gotten dessimated and the value of the business is worth way more than current levels. they are clicking in their growth buinsess and as the intersection takes place in overcoming te decline in legacy, this will fly.
Investors are short minded which has caused the deterioation in the stock. once growth is place and share count decreased, the upward rise will be accelerated. The current move upside is a tease to get long timeholders to bail while they can, but a double is in store for this little gem that nobody cares about right now.
I have been a silent viewer from afar but this was actually a very insightful post. I may consider adding to my holdings but need to liquidate some positions first
actually not really...been following since it was $5 before the runnup but since have noticed the following:
1) Soros backing
2) Cash on hand due to secondary
3) Growth sector - product leadership
4) potential buyout candidate
5) Insider buying
6) Tableau vs DWCH head to head compare
Looking to dip in hands over fist today.....concerns?
I must admit that while i find your posts duplicative and somewhat annoying, you have been pretty on target with your predictions on Zhone so far. While its great that you have made significant $ (im guessing) with spot on calls, let others point out your 'atta boys' rather than your reminding us - being 'humble' has its advantages...finally leave the winding and unwinding terminology to wind up toys.
Well done in your tracking and ZHNE stock predictions and hoping your $4+ stock price becomes a reality.
yesterday's CC was one of the most disgusting CC's I have ever listened to. As a major shareholder, that was the last news / tone I wanted to hear. I wish i took the signals from the last CC that things werent right...
1) They are reducing breakeven only because te business isnt there - what a huge change from the $30MM qtr
2) Officers sold big time during the qt
3) They had no answers to the analyst questions.
Unless I want to take a huge loss, only hope now is a buyout. Growth isnot coming in the 2nd half of the year, just listen to the mgt's confidence (or lackthereof)....
any others feeling the same? or this board completely dead? The silence is telling
by the way, happy to reneter recently at $3.18 and $2.81 in addition to having a portion of my original $.445 shares.
MERU killed me last night w/ their report so hoping ZHNE can more than make up for it.
just wow. When I sold 70% of my holding at 6+ and 5+ I really felt that this would escape me on the upside and I wouldnt have an opportunity to reload, let alone at current levels. I saw it going to the mid 3.5's but no lower so this downtrend is surprising, even given the lackluster quarterly results.
Some things to keep in mind...
1) ZHNE was trading at $3.30's before Mory opened his mouth regarding the $20-40MM expectation on fiberlan. My point is that analysts ran with those expectations and the fact that ZHNE got JITC, they expected the rev to climb fast and furious. I still beleive this play is a year+ out when it gets heavy traction and people dont realize things take time to materialize, especially in such a competitve environment
2) Based ont he point above, ZHNE should be trading at $3.30's based on current fundamentals and little expectation on fiberlan, plus the bonus of JITC cert which was already planned. My point is you can confidently buy in at sub $3 for the mid / long term to make money
3) Reviewing the latest CC, people dont talk about it much but the margin story is key. The guide lower on GM% (still within target range) crushed the profitability picture given that they were already light on Q2 forecast since mid/high single digit growth would also affect the earnings and thus p/e valuation. I think this is a non-factor because Mory stated that pricing pressures have subsided and 35-37% should be the low based on in quarter product mix and transition. I would expect upper 30's from Q3 out.
4) I agree with Alak's thesis of 'building a stable base (legacy business) with whip cream on top (potential for fiber lan). It puts a floor in the stock price. For the long timers, at $2.7 ish, we are trading at $.55 pre split which is dirt cheap for a company that has invested several millions in its IP and product development.
5) Check out this link and presentation or google search....zhone fiberlan presentation.pdf
(cont part 2)
i am long ZHNE but also a realist.... the fact that so many are optimistic during the major selloff is a red flag that we will go lower. The argument against small volume price decrease is actually flawed - it is days where people throw in the towels and head for the exits that signal capitulation and a possible bottom.
There is too much optimism at these level that caution me to add more today.
each has their own opinion and this is just mine.