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Nintendo Co. Ltd. Message Board

gandhip 265 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 29, 2015 8:51 PM Member since: Aug 17, 2000
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  • Reply to

    CALX and Industry

    by gandhip Jul 29, 2015 1:57 PM
    gandhip gandhip Jul 29, 2015 8:51 PM Flag

    Al-

    What you are asking is one reason why Calx's stock has languished and been stuck. The last 2 calls were frustrating for analysts having heard that they are on the cusp of something big but it never materializing. Analysts even questioned using the cash to buy its own stock and Russo had to convince them over and over that it was the best use of cash.

    To your question, I really think part of the answer is:

    1). Heavy reinvestment into the business (r&d) into the key products that will fuel its growth
    2) Poor cash management and heavy opex - they mentioned some acknowledgment of this and getting under control despite a $3mm increase next quarter
    3). Minimal focus on shareholder value.

    2 and 3 go hand in hand. Maybe repurchasing the stock will fuel them to run the business better and generate cash. As an investor this is encouraging because it's easy to fix and dedicating some priority to this will exponentially expand eps

  • Sold a while back in the 2.60's and didn't think I would get s chance to jump back in. Any technicians out there thinking this could get into the 2.60's again? Def want a piece before earnings as that is the catalyst that should get this going again especially if they show market share and margin gains.

    Koomar- what is the model telling you?

  • Sold a while ago in the high teens and it ran away from me but have been tracking it for a while. This is a classic tale of 'falling knife' syndrome where people are putting in their bets too early. Good company but the dust has to settle before new positions should be initiated. The high volume is a good sign but too many retail Bulls on the Baird tells me there is some pain left before a reversal is possible. Could be wrong but feel this is especially manipulated to the extremes compared to other stocks but holding off for a few more days before dipping in.

  • a great disparity is forming between CALX and ZHNE / ADTN. I own both but find the following interesting after listening to the CC transcript.

    - CEO - Russo may be a smart #$%$ o the analysts, but he is a very capable and competent individual
    - CALX has invested to position itself for the future
    - GM% - this is an area of where EPS expansion and upside surprise can stem from
    - 2nd half growth story is intact - best rev for 2 consecutive qtrs. is likely
    - Smart - they put a buyback program at the lows and will consequently reduce share count and expand eps at the best time
    - stock is depressed due to historics
    - stole a big tier 1 AT&T from ADTN due to simplistic vs complex model, validating the decisions to be made
    - R&D - investments have been made and now the growth is set

    ZHNE is none of these. I hope it gets sold for a moderate premium so I can move this cash to VDSI in the high teens. ZHONE is dead and the facts are the results.

  • 2nd time since July that knee jerk 'get in at any price' movement is occurring. someone knows something and wants in bad.

  • Reply to

    A couple of new data points

    by tradestoxx1981 Jul 23, 2015 1:59 PM
    gandhip gandhip Jul 24, 2015 12:38 PM Flag

    Trade-

    was tied up yesterday so I wasn't able to pop in but you nailed the comments re: AFOP/ INFN being a great sign for the sector, and in particular NPTN.

    Question - why does INFN trade at such a premium to NPTN? The fundamentals if looking at just the past few quarters are similar. Either NPTN is way undervalued / not as covered or something has to give. Maybe NPTN just has catching up to do since it is in a transformational stage.

    Also, what do you think of OCLR at these levels...lot of insider buying similar to NPTN a year ago....they could also be on the cusp of a major turnaround and I have heard that they have some cutting edge new 100g products that should gain traction now and into the future.

    Curious on your thoughts....

  • gandhip by gandhip Jul 20, 2015 5:39 PM Flag

    NPTN can remain steady heading into earnings or rise, it may stumble in the days leading up to the report, I would be a big believer that we are north of $10 after the report.

    That beings said, lot of 'ifs' and think this is a hold with buy on weakness

  • gandhip gandhip Jul 20, 2015 2:26 PM Flag

    finishing the thought, he isn't a liar....just either incompetent (failure to realize business reality / work wall street expectations) and failed to execute. Seems like an even 50/50 between the (2).

  • gandhip gandhip Jul 20, 2015 2:24 PM Flag

    yes - there is nothing in there that a CEO wouldn't say that believes in the company so I wouldn't call him a liar as compared to CEO speak during CC's. There is much worse out there...

    A CEO's job is UPOD, and that is where he fails....he should setup a kitchen sink CC and deliver all bad news and reset expectations for UPOD going forward, setting the stage for the buyback.

    Someone writing to him should teach him that wall street mantra...

    If , and only then, will I rebuy

  • I have been following this stock since the 3's and given the latest insider purchasing and news, thinking this is a good bet for a double now that investors are able to buy in at a 20% discount compared to directors of the company. Are the insider purchases real? My worry is that mgt has invested previously at much higher prices as well so not sure if they are able to execute on the turnaround they are envisioning...

    I recently placed a big bet in NPTN based on a similar premise and did well - is the potential turnaround for NPTN a reality?

    Looking for both bull and bear cases from those well informed and a history of following...

    TIA

  • Reply to

    Bit the bullet

    by ddsw02 Jul 20, 2015 9:53 AM
    gandhip gandhip Jul 20, 2015 12:25 PM Flag

    not bad ROI - I think a decent move short term as a pre-announcement didn't come as I had hoped, but the 2016 opportunity still lurks.

    I think its very wise to take $ off the table but also prudent to maintain a long term position of 25% your original NPTN holdings to give your chance to participate in the REAL money that is probable ahead.

  • Reply to

    AAOI and pre-announcements

    by tradestoxx1981 Jul 13, 2015 9:43 AM
    gandhip gandhip Jul 15, 2015 12:11 PM Flag

    Before the quarter closed, I gave it a 50/50 shot that they would pre-announce. Some companies just don't do it and I don't know if NPTN falls in that category. AFOP does it often...AAOI did for the first time I can remember.

    I actually expected OCLR and NPTN to be the front runners but now that we are sitting at the mid July pt, doesn't seem likely unless there is sooooo much business that closing the books is taking time - would love that problem. Maybe there is nothing to preannounce and they are in range of guidance. I think if they preannounced, the rev number has to be moderately more than the top range of $91MM - earnings we know get crushed with little heads up lately...

    Full disclosure - I have been buying from the low 9's to the mid 8's during the downdraft.

  • Reply to

    Plat duped us!

    by anilkoomar Jul 14, 2015 11:50 PM
    gandhip gandhip Jul 15, 2015 12:06 PM Flag

    think you may be too hard on plat as you need to take the good with the bad when it comes to MB posters. Agree that connecting the dots it does appear 'out there' but posters that want to appear smarter than everyone else are a dime a dozen but you got to dig for the bits of information that are relevant to establishing or relinquishing a position.

    I don't think you are in a position to dictate whether he can contribute further but I got a giggle when I read that you are playing message board police cop.

  • that the timing of today's pop and the closing of the quarter are no coincidence. I think it is the beginning of 'people' knowing that the quarter ended strong and the prospects are bright. I see steady volume with increased stock price from here heading into earnings with a head fake (selloff just days into earnings)...

    I think we go up from here.

  • Reply to

    SILC Reality...

    by gandhip Jul 6, 2015 3:52 PM
    gandhip gandhip Jul 6, 2015 6:44 PM Flag

    speaking tangibles, what impact to EPS will the revenue update yield? I think EPS will get crushed and once the number crunchers do their thing, this is worse than dead money.

  • Reply to

    SILC Reality...

    by gandhip Jul 6, 2015 3:52 PM
    gandhip gandhip Jul 6, 2015 6:42 PM Flag

    you make some compelling pts and those are some reasons why I bought in, but the point of my post was to speak opportunistically on share price.

    I can guarantee you 90% of the time (outside of biotech) that any stock that takes a 25% hit in share price that is small cap with low float (add to that the fact they provided horrible visibility) that this stock has much more room to go down, than go up in the near term.

    Not just buying but opportunistic buying at right price points provides flexibility in trading and making more money down the road.

  • I am in for a bit here when this traded at $36 and have no intentions of buying this lower YET...
    The reason this is getting crushed is the nature of SILC trading (high volatility) and the details of the press release. Revenue is so key to profits and they not only disappointed when the market is factoring in a beat, but they positioned Q3 numbers as a positive when they were very light too. So the 2015 targets are scrapped....the excuses are fluff and the visibility is now gone. Each $1m rev counts so much to profit generation that I can see this dipping in the low 20's / high teens given current market conditions.

    I scaled back half my position with that expectation in mind when rebuying lower.

  • Reply to

    Louder than words

    by ask_jeebe Jun 22, 2015 10:14 AM
    gandhip gandhip Jun 30, 2015 9:31 PM Flag

    NPTN is dominating 100g metro and data center interconnect market. Do you know what separates the 2?

    Also NPTN raised GM% from below 15 to above 30 in the past 15 months pruning low margin products so why cant FNSR follow suit? Look at the valuation change too

  • Reply to

    Maybe

    by fathertimetoretire Jun 30, 2015 1:11 PM
    gandhip gandhip Jun 30, 2015 4:22 PM Flag

    at least a portion but assume some of that average price is linked rebuying on the way down

  • Reply to

    Tim Jenks ... 800 shares? .... Really?

    by tradestoxx1981 Jun 26, 2015 9:38 AM
    gandhip gandhip Jun 26, 2015 10:54 AM Flag

    Trade - I have been having issues responding to the message boards recently in hitting the 'reply' button but I meant to agree with your notion that perhaps the insider selling is related to typical profit taking combined with option grants. If they are schooled into this thinking, then a 800 share sale would imply similar activity MMs do to push the stock lower and an insider sale is an insider sale so they could be very well wanting the price lower for the purpose you mentioned.

    I welcome and agree with much of your input which is why I have been buying as this dips, knowing we could even get to the 7's which would be an incredible buy

NTDOY
22.01-0.42(-1.87%)Jul 31 4:00 PMEDT