you could be right and the light volume drip smells rotten,
however from a valuation perspective, this is trading at 3+x sales and even if the 17% growth expected seems overextended.
What do you know that mgt doesn't?
its happened before so its not out of the question. The only chance to make money with that mindset is that the company seeking strategic eval is the same that is also vested in the dilution.
my hypothesis confirmed today based on weak markets and continued steady strength.
Bodes well if this turns into a short covering flurry.
i made 10% in one hour with minimal risk....you stay with your long term strategy which is fine. personally i think spdc is a junk stock but decent trade opportunity. better low risk investments out there
fun if you can bear the volatility and hold your guns. These PRs and storylines with orchestrated trading and taking care of your 'boys' are where the fun is.
In my DB, it shows that 3pm is the time to enter with best probability of a short term gain.
there may be a few shares that get the .36 / .35 handle but it will be quick back up. I say 50/50 chance if not parabolic upward from here til close
I will buy 10k shares (not a ton @ $.3785) and sell at 3:58 today for a 5-12% gain. If not, I am out with a loss but 80/20 I win based on this type of press release history. There is volume waiting on the end that will make the profitable trade based on those that orchestrated this manipulation that began yesterday
now is the time for an entry @ $.3785 for a 12 hour or less trade to make 5-12%. Watch the trades, volume and order flow.
pull the trigger if your risk tolerance is moderate.
There are near 2MM shares short AAOI. My humble opinion thinks that today's trading activity is driven by short covering and here is why...
When AAOI warned on Q1, ppl probably expected a 20% haircut similar to the slaughter late last year. When AAOi traded the following day, I bet you the shares short rose thinking the downtrend would come in the hours / days ahead.
Since the price remained strong, we are now getting shorts exiting their positions and that will only feed additional short covering.
If you are long, consider adding and hold tight on current shares. We are, IMO, on our way to 20
If you look ahead and just a simplistic view of the market, look at NPTN, recent performance and future potential, this stock is uber cheap.
I take analyst reports and research reports with a grain of salt, but with NPTN's prospects and focus on the sweetspot with the timing being now, and a prudent acquisition that will lead to more revenue streams...this puppy is hot!
I was shocked to see the dip to $5.5 but think that caught a lot of stops and even more shocked on the steady upward move on low volume. There are no sellers here guys.
be patient and look at this as an opportunity to add at lower price.
Look at NPTN - after earnings it broke down at the end of the day, after posting stellar earnings. It took a few days but it went from 4 to 7 in less than 3 weeks.
Not sure the rise will be the same but similar situation. I hope it drops as I have dry powder to add more
I think this will provide a headfake with the volume as the leading indicator... it might take days but this should explode to the upside as impatient investors move on.
Great time to accumulate
@ 2.04 I couldnt resist getting 5k shares of this. With the recent news and generation of $3mm in cash, I see similar signs to NPTN with transition to profit and insider buys, minus the growth.
Good luck all
notice that CIEN / INFN are trading lower whereas 'our boys' are trading much higher.
I am also in CLFD and recommend you guys take a look.
For those of you following likes of NPTN, AAOI and CLFD, this bodes well and confirms our DD...
With this report we are raising our metro optical forecasts based on a new proprietary capacity model. We estimate that line capacity growth accelerated from ~35% to a peak of 79% in the last 10G cycle. This compares to a baseline growth rate of 37% observed in 2014. We forecast that the rollout of 100G into metro networks beginning in early 2016 will lead to a similar increase in optical capacity growth. We conservatively forecast that this acceleration leads to market growth jumping to 30% and 27% in 2016 and 2017, respectively, from ~0% expected in 2015. We increase our forecasts for both CIEN and INFN, roll out above-consensus 2016 and 2017 estimates for both companies, and raise our price target for INFN.
A better model. We believe that most models of the metro optical market simply assume growth rates on existing revenue data without taking account of underlying capacity growth. Our new model uses an estimate of replacement of the optical port base combined with observed port speed increases to arrive at what we believe is a more realistic forecast for market revenue growth as 100G technology proliferates.
Metro capacity to grow aggressively. Using our new method we forecast that metro line capacity growth peaks in 2017 at 61% and 36% for Telecom and Enterprise, respectively. We note that this peak growth forecast is materially lower than the 77% (Telecom) and 85% (Enterprise) peak rates estimated for 2005.
Forecasting large market expansion. We estimate that the total metro market will grow to $6.3bn in 2016 and $8.0bn in 2017 from just $4.9bn in 2014. We believe that this is a conservative forecast considering peak historical capacity growth and increasing OTT TV momentum.