fun if you can bear the volatility and hold your guns. These PRs and storylines with orchestrated trading and taking care of your 'boys' are where the fun is.
In my DB, it shows that 3pm is the time to enter with best probability of a short term gain.
there may be a few shares that get the .36 / .35 handle but it will be quick back up. I say 50/50 chance if not parabolic upward from here til close
I will buy 10k shares (not a ton @ $.3785) and sell at 3:58 today for a 5-12% gain. If not, I am out with a loss but 80/20 I win based on this type of press release history. There is volume waiting on the end that will make the profitable trade based on those that orchestrated this manipulation that began yesterday
now is the time for an entry @ $.3785 for a 12 hour or less trade to make 5-12%. Watch the trades, volume and order flow.
pull the trigger if your risk tolerance is moderate.
There are near 2MM shares short AAOI. My humble opinion thinks that today's trading activity is driven by short covering and here is why...
When AAOI warned on Q1, ppl probably expected a 20% haircut similar to the slaughter late last year. When AAOi traded the following day, I bet you the shares short rose thinking the downtrend would come in the hours / days ahead.
Since the price remained strong, we are now getting shorts exiting their positions and that will only feed additional short covering.
If you are long, consider adding and hold tight on current shares. We are, IMO, on our way to 20
If you look ahead and just a simplistic view of the market, look at NPTN, recent performance and future potential, this stock is uber cheap.
I take analyst reports and research reports with a grain of salt, but with NPTN's prospects and focus on the sweetspot with the timing being now, and a prudent acquisition that will lead to more revenue streams...this puppy is hot!
I was shocked to see the dip to $5.5 but think that caught a lot of stops and even more shocked on the steady upward move on low volume. There are no sellers here guys.
be patient and look at this as an opportunity to add at lower price.
Look at NPTN - after earnings it broke down at the end of the day, after posting stellar earnings. It took a few days but it went from 4 to 7 in less than 3 weeks.
Not sure the rise will be the same but similar situation. I hope it drops as I have dry powder to add more
I think this will provide a headfake with the volume as the leading indicator... it might take days but this should explode to the upside as impatient investors move on.
Great time to accumulate
@ 2.04 I couldnt resist getting 5k shares of this. With the recent news and generation of $3mm in cash, I see similar signs to NPTN with transition to profit and insider buys, minus the growth.
Good luck all
notice that CIEN / INFN are trading lower whereas 'our boys' are trading much higher.
I am also in CLFD and recommend you guys take a look.
For those of you following likes of NPTN, AAOI and CLFD, this bodes well and confirms our DD...
With this report we are raising our metro optical forecasts based on a new proprietary capacity model. We estimate that line capacity growth accelerated from ~35% to a peak of 79% in the last 10G cycle. This compares to a baseline growth rate of 37% observed in 2014. We forecast that the rollout of 100G into metro networks beginning in early 2016 will lead to a similar increase in optical capacity growth. We conservatively forecast that this acceleration leads to market growth jumping to 30% and 27% in 2016 and 2017, respectively, from ~0% expected in 2015. We increase our forecasts for both CIEN and INFN, roll out above-consensus 2016 and 2017 estimates for both companies, and raise our price target for INFN.
A better model. We believe that most models of the metro optical market simply assume growth rates on existing revenue data without taking account of underlying capacity growth. Our new model uses an estimate of replacement of the optical port base combined with observed port speed increases to arrive at what we believe is a more realistic forecast for market revenue growth as 100G technology proliferates.
Metro capacity to grow aggressively. Using our new method we forecast that metro line capacity growth peaks in 2017 at 61% and 36% for Telecom and Enterprise, respectively. We note that this peak growth forecast is materially lower than the 77% (Telecom) and 85% (Enterprise) peak rates estimated for 2005.
Forecasting large market expansion. We estimate that the total metro market will grow to $6.3bn in 2016 and $8.0bn in 2017 from just $4.9bn in 2014. We believe that this is a conservative forecast considering peak historical capacity growth and increasing OTT TV momentum.
you are correct to be wary - these situations paralyze investors, especially those that had hope to be on the opposite side of the trade. Only way out without going crazy is options.
I do believe that down is much more likely than up...
Saw the earnings announcement, looked at the valuation and am interested at these levels. Also saw the insider buys...
Based on the latest news, any thoughts on why this stock should be avoided given they are generating cash and trading at less than .5x sales?
also, did they attempt to sell the company and fail? CEO mentioned strategic alternatives 'behind us' and it tells me m&a is not a possibility. Need to understand that final pt just a bit more...
I have been following SONS for quite some time and attempted (order didnt execute) to enter a position but not through skill but luck avoided a disaster.
This company's mgt lacks any and all trust and dont expect positive comments coming in the upcoming CC if they werent avaialble in the earnings miss. Hoenstly, nobody would buy it. Sadly analyst expectations are still way too optimistic and who knows whether the company's full year guidance has any credibility.
The problem with SONS is that it still has too much catching up to do on the downside as the financial valuation ratios are still way too high for a company that will be in the deep red. Only premium that can be placed is an exit strategy or buyout. any rally will be trumped by continuous selling....
Can anyone honestly suggest where SONS would be trading had it not previously been at 20$+?
Not trying to be negative but providing an honest assessment from someone who has no stake. All IMO of course...
btw - no need to apologize on the AAOI warning. I bought a ton on the open. 2.4 b2b ratio?!?! are you kidding me. If someone takes the time to read beyond the headlines, the miss is understandable yet frustrating (meaning business is strong). As long as these guys arent blowing smoke, it speaks to the selloff in recent days and the AM dip.
I have full confidence that we see 20 more so than before in fact...
This stock may transcend to levels where tired holders will sell into a run and the stock will finally wake up.
This is the time period from when the new CEO took over that I thought a purchase would happen. Curious if they are actively looking.