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Axcelis Technologies Inc. Message Board

gandhip 82 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 6, 2015 11:30 AM Member since: Aug 17, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Northland Detail

    by gandhip Oct 5, 2015 1:49 PM
    gandhip gandhip Oct 6, 2015 11:30 AM Flag

    interesting pr this AM

  • They just don't care for Zhone apparently

    You can get the detailed opinion at the Benzinga site on how Northland Capital likes 4 names in telecom

  • Clearfield: Optimizing A ‘Somewhat Overlooked' Part Of Carrier Access Networks

    Savageaux initiated coverage of Clearfield with an Outperform rating and $17.50 price target.

    According to Savageaux, Clearfield is focused on optimizing a "critical," though "somewhat overlooked," part of carrier access network – the management of fiber optic connectivity from the carrier point of presence through a variety of cabinets, enclosures, splits and termination devices to the customer premise.

    The analyst noted that the company's focus is "not terribly sexy" from a technological perspective; it is, however, "important" to carriers in terms of timely and cost effective network deployment. The company stands out in this space as it has innovated via its modular "cassette"-based fiber optic connectivity systems and is squarely focused on the cost and process pain points of local carriers.

    Bottom line, the company is a "leader" in connectivity infrastructure for FTTH networks and has generated an "impressive" track record of growth and profitability, which is expected to continue.

  • Hey,

    I have followed this stock for quite some time and your postings as well. You seem to be an objective and intelligent poster with a significant amount of background on the company.

    I recently invested and have been looking to add knowing this is a speculative play with a potential for high returns if the right things fall into place. I read today's announcement as a non-event thinking the earnings picture would be poor short term. But I assumed the restructuring of debt and bank's willingness to work it out would be a positive.

    I the end, rather shocked to see the stock taking such a hit. Is there more negativity than appears on the surface? Trying to gauge the downside from here or other considerations...

    Your input greatly appreciated.


  • gandhip gandhip Sep 25, 2015 11:26 AM Flag

    without any sustained fundamental improvement and execution, this stock is so overvalued. There is a lot of hope priced into this that revenues will ramp and huge deals are on the horizon but never materializes.

    While I have been intrigued by the technology I have come to the realization that it is all hype and best to stay away. The mgt team cannot execute worth beans.

  • Reply to


    by sean4te Sep 22, 2015 1:08 PM
    gandhip gandhip Sep 24, 2015 11:41 AM Flag

    interesting....I look at it differently. Look at FNSR's deficiencies and find small / nimble companies that can be easier to absorb in acquisition to fill the gap. Merging 2 big companies for the sake of generic change doesn't seem like the best way to go IMO. There are postings suggesting where FNSR is currently weak in their product transition that I would think would be easier to solve their profit, GM and product issues to be where they need to get to.

  • gandhip gandhip Sep 24, 2015 11:38 AM Flag

    Alex Henderson is so yesterday. He is so reactive and cant tell the future and that has and will be Needham's track record as long as he is there. I think there are some serious concerns with FNSR w/r/t to product transitions and market share. Companies are passing them by and I think the recent leadership changes is acknowledgement to that. I would say this is closer to the nadir than before but that isn't telling you anything you don't know already. I own very little FNSR and have been looking to add more but something tells me to stay away. This team has great technology and has the infrastructure to do great things but they seem to lack the energy, drive and passion to go get it. They are complacent and when that mentality shifts I will buy more. I will pay higher prices but will not fight the trend.

  • gandhip gandhip Sep 24, 2015 10:43 AM Flag

    Thx Plat - very curious on the specifics on the confidence you have

  • Reply to

    Hallum conf recap - would love input

    by gandhip Sep 23, 2015 2:45 PM
    gandhip gandhip Sep 24, 2015 10:22 AM Flag

    Interesting. I listened to that part again and the tidbit that I missed that was even more concerning was the slight cash flow positive comment. It ties to your flattish revenue comment and then combined with increased expenses.

    I couldn't hear the Q&A very well but it wouldn't shock me if the analysts and CFO got together off the record to clarify those statements and the result is the current share price. That combined with some of the statements above.

    Question is where this is headed but I am an interested buyer at these levels.

  • Reply to

    Alakuma. . . . .

    by patience4meandyou Sep 23, 2015 11:57 AM
    gandhip gandhip Sep 23, 2015 3:57 PM Flag

    Appreciate the reply. If I were to invest in zhone again it would be on speculation that they will get this sold. I took that bet with a shorter time horizon when Jim took over as CEO. The day after the stock soared thinking zhone would get sold. I was impatient and sold but still hold some shares in a 401k and ok to write that off.

    In this market and at current price what gives you the impression would get sold for anything over $4 per share (seems rich at that level).

    What would be the best fit for zhone in your opinion? They shouldn't continue as is as a publicly traded company if they can't generate decent cash flow. It is just too expensive.

  • Reply to

    Hallum conf recap - would love input

    by gandhip Sep 23, 2015 2:45 PM
    gandhip gandhip Sep 23, 2015 3:48 PM Flag

    Good catch and glad to hear. What about the other items that seem to be headwinds? I don't think it was just some great news that was expected didn't happen. There are some areas of concern and they are expected beat guidance by a few pennies. I guess we will know by earnings.

  • So I listened to the presentation and as someone not as close to the company as many of you, I observed somethings that would explain the decline.

    1) Q3 estimates - doesn't seem to have changed so if someone was expecting a surprise, doesn't seem like they are getting it.
    2) Market share - were anticipating 20-30% and it looks like they are taking share but at a tune of 17-20%
    3) Gross Margin - higher penetration costs than they expected (had to add a page to the investor presentation they publish so looks like a negative update)
    4) Gross Margin Part B - the part of the business that is growing the most is the area where they have the most margin issues. Constant engineering tweaks required on initial installs affecting margins negatively

    Overall I think there were lack of surprises on the positive side and some added surprises on the negative. Overall direction seems strong and 2016/7 prospects look good if they can hit them. A lot hinges on the gross margin initiatives.

    With a stock trading at perfection and overall market (specifically semis) the correction to the current levels doesn't surprise me at all. But I do think its a good time to add/ accumulate for those that have a long term horizon. Risk to the downside could continue to the $2.40's IMO

    Any other takes from those that are in the know more than me?

  • Reply to

    FNSR is not investable...

    by anilkoomar Sep 15, 2015 10:52 AM
    gandhip gandhip Sep 22, 2015 1:27 PM Flag

    you hit the key points that would steer them toward NPTN as opposed to OCLR. It's a no brainer that NPTN should be the choice but the question is if management sees it that way.

  • Reply to


    by sean4te Sep 22, 2015 1:08 PM
    gandhip gandhip Sep 22, 2015 1:23 PM Flag

    agreed to some extent and I see the shift in CEO as a plus...

    What is your bet on what happens to regain market share and consequently shareholder value?

    My bet is NPTN will be acquired soon by the likes of a FNSR

  • Reply to

    what's that old saying?

    by bot_feeder Sep 8, 2015 12:29 PM
    gandhip gandhip Sep 22, 2015 12:30 PM Flag

    sell I may and go away... looks like that was the smart thing to do with ACLS.

    I am putting an order GTC for $2.64....if it hits it hits, if not there are other opportunities.

  • If we break all bets are off. I have been looking to add to my small position but something smells.

  • gandhip gandhip Sep 22, 2015 11:52 AM Flag

    while its wishful thinking the market would have corrected the price. I believe it is something macro even bigger than ACLS that is causing this

  • Reply to

    NPTN volume

    by reverebob Sep 21, 2015 11:12 AM
    gandhip gandhip Sep 21, 2015 3:53 PM Flag

    Your info is dated

  • Reply to

    NPTN volume

    by reverebob Sep 21, 2015 11:12 AM
    gandhip gandhip Sep 21, 2015 3:52 PM Flag

    No downgrade. Need ham reiterated this AM

  • Reply to

    Let's start a rumor

    by please_buy_while_i_sell Sep 21, 2015 8:13 AM
    gandhip gandhip Sep 21, 2015 11:38 AM Flag

    Just catching up on this board and it has turned into a joke.

    You really don't realize that responding and addressing this koomar guy is what he wants you to do? You don't have to be a rocket scientist to realize the guy is a troll and eats into your back and forth. It seems the entertainment you are getting is at your own expense. Why not just ignore it? And what is this 'puppet remark'? It's sounds like you need some help or a friend.

    Back on topic, do you have any substantive info on ZHNE itself or just sarcastic comments indirectly suggesting ZHNE's future is dead? Everyone has a right to post on a message board but it shocks me that you contribute actively on a dollar stock without any investment in it.

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