this is very good insight and appreciate you taking time in articulating this post.
it sounds like either mgt is lying about their Q4 prospects as they seemed very confident or they are relying on deals to close and rev rec within the qtr which isnt reassuring.
yep... it sucks but dont get sucked in and be patient. put in an absurd limit order @ like $4.09 and try to catch the rest of your trade at market on days like today.
i am looking for an awesome 4th qtr where we could see $6mm+ rev and with GM% back on track
Not that it was a blowout qtr but there are those pessimists out there that don't believe. How do those venture funds and institutions feel after waiting for the trough and dumping all those shares between jan - may?
The story is intact and people can still buy on the cheap after hours. While Mory's Q4 comments are obvious based on previous guidance, I am curious if there is a surprise be is holding for us on the CC?
pls have some perspective - the story here is fiberlan deployment. A single hotel deploying ZHNE's tech is meaningless revenue. Surprised this is a PR
I am long ZHNE
on a company that is turning the corner, it is very healthy and beneficial to have shorts that are skeptical. I see that adding more fury to the runnups and create a fuller or even overvalued situation when the fundamentals are sound.
I wouldnt expect someone to look at the current situation at ZHNE based on the past few earnings reports and guidance to have a desire to short. Some short a stock merely because the price has increased significantly in a short amount of time and many of us long timers are well aware that this was just a 'catchup phase' validating our purchase sub $1 and thinking there is much more to come.
I am taking the postiion with my remaining cost basis is $4.5 (even though it is $1.11) since I believe that is a conservative valuation for this company in its current state.
Interesting Alak....I like you ignored these postings as I thought they were general ramblings but there may be something here. The way the messages were written seemed a little odd and came across that the posted had little knowledge, but as you point out the timing and specific comments there seems to be a 'hint' of something.
The note about the motorola business is especially interesting.
Hard to tell if there is real substance there...
If you look now and based on earnings, the stock price move is absolutely no surprise to me. I was actually surprised that this thing languished during the first 6 months of the year when the market was taking off. Markets are not perfect and especially in the small cap world
The slides I reference in the numbers I posted are straight from the CFO's mouth in their latest investor conference from September 9th. Are you suggesting an additional $140mm in revenue in the past few days has materialized? I am quoting information directly from their documentation and leadership that suggests rev will increase from $210 million to $260+ next year which is still decent growth. The stock can still get to $5 if this holds true.
In addition you mentioned that HP business is growing significantly. The CFO specifically mentioned that HP is not a revenue growth driver and that business has lower margins. It provides a base for revenues but will be a significantly lower part of their business going forward percentage wise. I see this as a good thing as margins move from the mid 20's to mid 30's, profitability will rise dramatically and valuation will be benefit.
Unless you provide more concrete evidence of the large Oem deals and revenue forecasts that only you know about, I think you are connecting dots that don't exist. Facts are facts. Show proof or details to your predictions otherwise it lacks credibility. How did you connect the dots hat suggests new OEM deals with IBM and oracle? How do you think HP revenue is growing while the company mgt suggests otherwise? Why do you think HILL will generate $400mm in 2014 revenue when mgt suggested much less just a few days ago? What dots are you connecting?
As for your comment on insider purchases, I buy into your rationale however if I knew that my company was going to double revenues with exponential profitability growth soon to come, you better believe I would invest more $ into that company.
For all interested, see the company website under investor relations and the latest sept 9th investor presentation and then listen to the web cast.
Disclosure - I am long HILL in a big way
While some of the dialogue about their growth is true, your facts are overblown and you are artificially pumping. I have done my research, reviewed the latest sept 9 investor presentation in detail...
My analysis indicates that they will do $260mm max next near and history shows they fall in their mid point so that is realistically much lower. There is growth but the references to $400 mm and Oem deals with IBM / Oracle are pumping.
I will close by saying why wouldn't insiders be purchasing shares if this story was that great. No insider purchasing activity on a stock that you say is in a transformational phase is factual data on the validity of the 2014 growth you outline
On the positive side, their HP business has stabilized and they do seem to be on a growth trajectory on the higher margin side of their business which is good. @ midpoint $.25 earnings would make current valuation cheap on P/E and cash flow basis. Their competition is consolidating which is good for their win rate and ability to differentiate. I do t buy their product differentistion message as it is just not true - storage optimization is what everyone in this soace is trying to accomplish in order to minimize costs and they just do it in a different way. I quote from their presentation that to even reach this growth they will have to execute and monetize the deals they close this year. There is risk on the customer side as there is no minimum commitment. I have see too many of these 'we are goin to grow 20-30% next year' stories fall apart.
I am long since $1.29 and holding but ver skeptical in this posters remarks. All IMO
IMO just catching up with reality - until we hit $4 we are just making up for lost time. From there, it is mgt living up to expectations and driving further growth.
Once we get earnings traction and slap a PE on this, we get to $8-10 but that will take time, patience and turbulence to withstand
and the waters are quiet. I like it. The accumulation between 1.45 - low 2's was worthwhile and attempts to purchase seem limited after the $2.40's. This may run quick on little volume and sellers seem to have disappeared and the company's transformation continues.
If we can get to $3.5 - $4 then a purchase of the company in the $6 range would seem like a great gamble. Even now it is tempting to lock in profits and run but I dont think we are done yet.
The board has gone quiet....any opinions on a realistic sales price for this company assuming Ambrose is setting the stage? The backlog is strong and if they execute on that backlog until year end we should see siginficant QOQ growth and decent profitability assuming margins were not crushed.
great post and absolutely true. same today as retracement is a few thousand shares. volume is the key indicator here unless fundamentals tell otherwise.
im already overcommited but see this retracement to 3.15 as a buy. sold a bunch of semis and adding here. The market validation is in.