iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Message Board
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I work as a property and fire protection specialist for a major commercial insurance carrier. I consult with companies re fire protection, so have some background and a CFPS designation (you can look up if you want. The fact is that Boeing engineers selected a battery technology that has inherent design and manufacturing issues that increase fire risk. Laptops, for example, are now considered hazardous cargo when shipped in bulk because of spontaneous ignitions, or "thermal runaways". Boeing has put economics ahead of safety and fires on board aircraft should not occur. Car and laptops fires may result in property damage, but loss of life is what FAA is concerned with.
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China sentiment has been beaten down by WS and US/Europe Central Bankers. Since the China market bumped up last fall, there has been no good news anywhere, not because things have changed but that the financial media is making up stories about how risky China is. I only ask these people, whose job it is to keep capital in the developed old world, where is your alternative? The WSJ yesterday had another daily negative story about China (they have lost all credibility in my book) that said that growth could (unlikely) fall all the way to 5% growth in GDP. So, yoiu gonnat take growth or recession here and in Europe? Short Europe, buy China and other EMs.
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Boeing is ready for 30% haircut. The lithium battery problem, which insanely has been the driving force for a 12% gain in March (the only real gain in 24 mos, a big huh??), will soon be determined to be unfixable notwithstanding the engineering BS from the company that says otherwise. These batteries have INHERENT fire hazards that should preclude any use on aircraft. There is nothing they can do to solve this little problem short of some fixed, automatic fire extinguishing system which is not on the table, but will likely be required by FAA. In any event, a complete nightmare for Boeing and the stock cannot stay at these levels.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
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#$%$ - no inflation? I doubt it. I know it. Whoever sold TIPs to buy US equities will live to regret it.
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Growth and stability is significantly better in EMs than developed world, so why the LT decline in EM bonds (or for that matter, EM equities)? Manipulation by developed world can be only answer because the fundamentals favor EMs over developed world economies. I will take the "slower" growth in China any day vs US, which is barely treading water, nothwithstanding the lying economic stats.
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The manipulation is most clear in emerging markets. VWO - down almost 6% since March vs DIA Up almost 2% in same time frams - discounting of course non-recession economy in EMs vs recession in US.