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Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

garmingchan 2672 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 19, 2012 11:59 PM Member since: Feb 15, 2007
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  • garmingchan by garmingchan Nov 19, 2012 11:59 PM Flag

    I can't post the lin k, so this is the message from today:
    Silicon Motion margins can increase, says Pacific Crest
    After meeting with Silicon Motion's management, Pacific Crest believes that the company can increase its gross margins to 48%-50% in three to four quarters. The firm likes the company's growth opportunities in eMMC and LTE, and recommends buying the shares.

  • garmingchan garmingchan Nov 15, 2012 6:40 AM Flag

    You usually have to be a client or an invited analyst, pre-registered to enter.
    Some are a little more elite and require you to be part of their wealth management clientele

  • Reply to

    QCOM LTE strength

    by geezer31 Nov 8, 2012 1:35 AM
    garmingchan garmingchan Nov 9, 2012 8:50 AM Flag

    CLWR ?

  • Reply to

    QCOM LTE strength

    by geezer31 Nov 8, 2012 1:35 AM
    garmingchan garmingchan Nov 8, 2012 6:03 PM Flag

    SQNS

  • is that really a concern? Shouldn't it only be a concern when you're selling?

  • Reply to

    A Few Important Take-Aways

    by razor_phishh Oct 25, 2012 9:07 PM
    garmingchan garmingchan Oct 26, 2012 12:13 AM Flag

    devil's advocate.
    Shouldn't they intiate the most aggressive buyback then if they're being courted? to attempt to appreciate the price? In order to demand a higher premium relative to current share price?
    i.e. intiate a buy back - price goes to 17.50 and demand a price of at least 25
    compared to allowig it to languish sub 15 and only be able to demand a price of at least 20?

  • Reply to

    IPO affect on current shareholders

    by hipthreevet Oct 19, 2012 9:50 AM
    garmingchan garmingchan Oct 25, 2012 4:26 AM Flag

    current shareholders will own ~80% of MPLX .
    If MPLX prices generously, or appreciates - presumably that will be reflected in MPC's pricing - but the world doesn't always work this way

  • garmingchan by garmingchan Oct 25, 2012 3:49 AM Flag

    I'm not sure much will salvage PPS at this point. SMH and XLK pretty much show the picture of the backdrop of the world (which is unfortunate). Take a look at FIO.
    Things that we need to know about:
    1) gross margin degredation was a function of? ASP decline?
    2) card business grew 23% (which offsets the 18% decline in Q2) but what happened to USB flash drive business?
    3) cache SSD, MCP business? what are the prospects here?
    4) smartTV is interesting because Samsung probably has a large footprint there
    5) LTE business outside of Samsung? or what actions they will take to pair their tranceiver with baseband in order to get non-Samung business?
    6) The grand daddy will be the cash position.
    7) looks lke CCC went down with AR down, AP down, and invent up - what's up with that? but not such a big deal
    8) They keep talking about Flash vendors outsourcing their controller business and that SIMO is most likely to benefit; but there hasn't been an announcement. I think I've been hearing this for 3 years.

  • Reply to

    Q3 report

    by geezer31 Oct 24, 2012 11:07 PM
    garmingchan garmingchan Oct 25, 2012 12:54 AM Flag

    A special dividend perhaps?
    I think going foward, dividend will start to look unattractive - depending who the president is and tax laws.
    Additionally a stable dividend would be interesting now that they've reached a run rate which ensures cashflow. Because the dividend discount model may reveal a "fair" price for this stock.
    They need to address this cash hoard; because as their equity grows, their ROE will suffer by nature of equity always being larger than NI, and NI increasing by virtually the same amount as equity.

    The radical move would be to take on debt (cost of capital being so low) and go private by buying themselves out (but the insiders dont control enough shares to make this a certainty).
    They've also reached a revenue level where they're leverage really starts to make cash build up exceptional - consider 4 flat quarters of revenue - that's 120+ mil in cash excess on top of what they are now?

    Lots of strategies.
    I think a buyback will reduce anyconcerns of tax considerations going foward.
    We'll see.

  • Reply to

    It's SIMOweek!

    by geezer31 Oct 22, 2012 4:18 AM
    garmingchan garmingchan Oct 22, 2012 8:25 PM Flag

    Do you guys have a grasp or the SNDK report? It seems that their retail segment did well (but I thought they said 2H12 would be poor when they reported in Q1- was their a change in their outlook?) ; if it did well (clean print) then SIMO should benefit.
    Furthermore, if the module makers (Adata, Transcend numbers) had an uptick on the retail - this will benefit SIMO's core business.
    However, SNDK's retail is captive and may only speak towards their market (unless their has been a change in their controller/nand for retail business).

    I also couldn't parse out the volume for SNDK. Which is more important in SIMO's world. If SNDK did more volume but saw ASP declines - it shouldn't affect SIMO's rev since they'll probably see either a flat or tick up in ASPs in Q3.
    g

  • garmingchan by garmingchan Oct 17, 2012 10:35 AM Flag

    Violin is rumored to start the IPO process.
    Big step in the SolidState landscape.
    Something to keep an eye on.

  • Reply to

    STMicroelectronics rallies on report of breakup

    by jmartinezdl Oct 16, 2012 4:54 PM
    garmingchan garmingchan Oct 17, 2012 2:59 AM Flag

    Some rumors that Amazon is looking to buy up some mobile IC assets, too.

  • Reply to

    Liking the action...

    by itssonlyamatteroftime Oct 16, 2012 2:33 PM
    garmingchan garmingchan Oct 17, 2012 2:58 AM Flag

    Someone paid 0.20 cents for 400 Nov 20 calls.
    only 8 thousand dollars, but that's pretty far out of the money.
    very suspicious

  • Reply to

    Monthly sales

    by garmingchan Oct 13, 2012 7:07 AM
    garmingchan garmingchan Oct 15, 2012 8:21 PM Flag

    I personally think the uptick in Transcend and Adata is good news. That means flash is making its way over to card and Usb flash drive market.
    It would be nice to have Kingston and Cosair and Lexar data as well.
    And since the 5-8% estimate (tight) was based on OEM/ODM outlook - this may bode well for SIMO.
    But hope doesn't pay the bills

  • garmingchan by garmingchan Oct 13, 2012 7:07 AM Flag

    Phison slightly down MoM in sept
    Skymedi should not be a going concern MoM is attrocious
    alcor micro is down quite a bit MoM in Sept
    transcend had a good MoM sept but down YoY
    adata had a good MOM but down YoY

    Cant post links but the data is on respective websites
    I also tried to post : wallace registerd another 50,000 shares to sell
    But post wont show up

  • Reply to

    Management filings

    by geezer31 Oct 11, 2012 12:36 PM
    garmingchan garmingchan Oct 12, 2012 8:24 AM Flag

    SOURCE: Form 144

    ISSUER: SILICON MOTION TECHNOLOGY CORP
    SYMBOL: SIMO

    FILER: KOU CHIA-CHANG (WALLACE)
    TITLE: Chief Executive Officer
    BROKER: GOLDMAN SACHS & CO
    RESTRICTED SHARES TO SELL: 50,000 DATE REGISTERED: 6/13/2012
    APPROXIMATE DATE OF SALE: 6/13/2012

    The Form 144 is filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission to
    reflect the intention of any holder of restricted stock to sell those
    shares. After the 144 is mailed to the S.E.C., the filer is permitted
    to sell the shares, or any fraction of them, within 90 days.

  • Reply to

    Management filings

    by geezer31 Oct 11, 2012 12:36 PM
    garmingchan garmingchan Oct 12, 2012 8:23 AM Flag

    SOURCE: Form 144

    ISSUER: SILICON MOTION TECHNOLOGY CORP
    SYMBOL: SIMO

    FILER: LAI RIYADH
    TITLE: Chief Financial Officer
    BROKER: E-TRADE FINANCIAL
    RESTRICTED SHARES TO SELL: 50,000 DATE REGISTERED: 6/25/2012
    APPROXIMATE DATE OF SALE: 6/22/2012

    The Form 144 is filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission to
    reflect the intention of any holder of restricted stock to sell those
    shares. After the 144 is mailed to the S.E.C., the filer is permitted
    to sell the shares, or any fraction of them, within 90 days.

  • Reply to

    Management filings

    by geezer31 Oct 11, 2012 12:36 PM
    garmingchan garmingchan Oct 12, 2012 8:22 AM Flag

    SOURCE: Form 144

    ISSUER: SILICON MOTION TECHNOLOGY CORP
    SYMBOL: SIMO

    FILER: CHEN PING HSU
    TITLE: Affiliated Person
    BROKER: CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES (USA) LLC
    RESTRICTED SHARES TO SELL: 2,000 DATE REGISTERED: 9/26/2012
    APPROXIMATE DATE OF SALE: 9/21/2012

    The Form 144 is filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission to
    reflect the intention of any holder of restricted stock to sell those
    shares. After the 144 is mailed to the S.E.C., the filer is permitted
    to sell the shares, or any fraction of them, within 90 days.

  • garmingchan by garmingchan Oct 7, 2012 7:02 PM Flag

    Does anyone believe SIMO's non-action regarding their "share buy back" mention in the last quarter CC suggest anything?
    To even mention it, I found unusual. but to mention it and not do it?
    That's like Mario Drahgi stating he'll buy all the bonds in the world and yields start to fall; but he hasn't had to buy a bond yet.

    1) the board said "no" - and they'll keep saying they're considering it even next quarter; just to stall?
    2) this current quarter is so good, they're hoping the numbers speak for themselves?
    3) they're trying to make an acquisition, and this announcement during the last quarter was to shut us up
    4) then why are so many people registering their shares to sell?

    If this quarter is bad, and they're running for the hills; shouldn't they announce the buyback and sell into the rally?

    compare and contrast; discuss
    g

  • Reply to

    Its a beautiful day because....

    by shamus_oshawnasee Oct 4, 2012 3:20 PM
    garmingchan garmingchan Oct 4, 2012 8:44 PM Flag

    I thought you were going to say, because Samsung knocked it out of the park: due to their smartphones.
    I'd post a link, but YMB won't permit them anymore

AGO
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