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Comcast Corporation Message Board

garolou22 173 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Apr 25, 2006
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  • garolou22 garolou22 10 hours ago Flag

    Media has a distribution problem. They can fix it with Netflix which would give Netflix negotiating leverage or they can continue losing subscribers competing with Netflix. I believe they will go with Netflix before things get much worse.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The joke is --

    by wall_st_trendsetter Feb 12, 2016 3:07 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 15 hours ago Flag

    Netflix is valued on the growth it's getting at the expense of big media companies. The inability of big media to stop Netflix is increasing it's valuation every year. If big media companies like Fox and Time Warner are hitting 3 year lows after reporting declining revenues because of Netflix then Netflix should have at least the same market cap as Time Warner and Fox and if they can't stop Netflix from taking market share then Netflix market cap will eventually reach at least 300 billion many years before their profits and revenues justify this market cap.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • garolou22 garolou22 16 hours ago Flag

    Netflix is producing good content but it can't be what caused Fox and Time Warner to report declining revenues. If content is king great content producers like Fox and Time Warner wouldn't have declining revenues, especially when content prices are rising. It's clear to me distribution is king not content. Most still believe content is king and they will eventually have to change their minds, because of this there will be more years like 2013 and 2015 for the stock.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The media led everyone to believe content is king. Now that media stocks are hitting multiyear lows and Netflix has emerged as a fast growing major media company it is clear to me that distribution is king.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Fox and Viacom's revenues fall

    by garolou22 Feb 9, 2016 10:03 AM
    garolou22 garolou22 Feb 10, 2016 10:05 AM Flag

    The big opportunity here is Netflix becomes the major distributor for the big media companies. Media companies have choice, get on board and grow with Netflix or remain in decline as Netflix continues to grow and produces more of it's own content.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Fox and Viacom's revenues fall

    by garolou22 Feb 9, 2016 10:03 AM
    garolou22 garolou22 Feb 10, 2016 8:40 AM Flag

    Time Warner reports revenue fell 6% as they refuse to work with the best salesman in the industry. Hastings is a reasonable person. He will let them have their advertising revenue on Netflix (in the right measure) if he can get faster growth.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Fox and Viacom's revenues fall

    by garolou22 Feb 9, 2016 10:03 AM
    garolou22 garolou22 Feb 9, 2016 11:25 AM Flag

    They restrict content to Netflix at the expense of lower Netflix license revenues. It doesn't have to be this way for the content producers. Netflix revenue growth is accelerating and they don't have enough content to meet demand. Media companies should get on board with Netflix who will lead them into the next wave of TV.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Netflix taking market share

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • And here comes Netflix who will offer the same thing for $60 a month and no one will stop them because they carry a big checkbook around.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    P/E is way too high

    by jbmjlm Feb 5, 2016 4:46 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Feb 7, 2016 10:22 AM Flag

    Tesla is a bad example. Consumers always go to where they can get the best value. Netflix has it whereas Tesla doesn't, so far.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    P/E is way too high

    by jbmjlm Feb 5, 2016 4:46 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Feb 7, 2016 8:40 AM Flag

    Many times we have seen them priced for perfection until they come out with news that makes the price look cheap, the stock spikes higher and seeks out it's new price for perfection.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    P/E is way too high

    by jbmjlm Feb 5, 2016 4:46 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Feb 6, 2016 6:31 PM Flag

    If it's impossible to predict growth 5 to 6 years out then growth could be higher than predicted. Netflix stock has gone up as much as 4000% since it launched internet TV because growth has been much higher than predicted. The longer something remains the same the less likely it will change. Take advantage of this stock market sell off to buy Netflix.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    HULU defectors

    by retailbaloon Feb 6, 2016 2:01 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Feb 6, 2016 2:42 PM Flag

    Latest Sandvine report shows Hulu internet traffic less than 3% vs 37% for Netflix. Hulu is not even in the game.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Netflix Content Really Sucks

    by cncmachinepro Feb 5, 2016 5:21 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Feb 6, 2016 10:15 AM Flag

    Netflix's forward PE is 77 with earnings expected to rise from 23 cents this year to $1.07 a share next year, a 350% increase. Netflix's competition is weak and this will make it easy for them to be very profitable. The stock looks like a bargain based on triple digit earnings growth potential in the coming years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Netflix Content Really Sucks

    by cncmachinepro Feb 5, 2016 5:21 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Feb 6, 2016 9:54 AM Flag

    Wrong, Netflix content doesn't suck. They spend more for content than anyone else and because of their fast growth content spending continues to rise at a pace no competitor can keep up to.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    NFLX to tank below $50

    by george_broski Jan 30, 2016 10:57 AM
    garolou22 garolou22 Feb 1, 2016 8:23 AM Flag

    Wait a minute, remember Hastings call out for material global profits starting in 2017, which I believe was really what sparked the big rally last year. Well here they come. The PE is 78 based on next years analysts est of $1.17/ share, a 368% increase. Analysts's see sales growth accelerating to 29% this year from 23% last year. Netflix's monopoly in internet TV is picking up steam and is about to embark on a multiyear run of triple digit earnings growth while maintaining 30% revenue growth through a combination of subscriber additions and price increases.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Disasters are looming for Netflix...

    by george_broski Jan 30, 2016 8:34 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Jan 31, 2016 4:45 PM Flag

    If Amazon is closing the gap in content they aren't closing the gap in viewership which means they have a distribution problem. Spending more money on content and not getting the desired viewership is bad and it shows they are getting weaker competing with Netflix. Now that Netflix has finished it's international expansion it will return it's focus on the US the biggest market of all. TV is one area that Amazon will not win as long as Hastings is around. It looks like cable companies are conceding distribution to the internet companies and have left the networks to fend for themselves. They need distribution. With the weak streaming competition there is a huge opportunity facing Netflix. I agree, a lot of fireworks in store for pay TV.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Disasters are looming for Netflix...

    by george_broski Jan 30, 2016 8:34 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Jan 31, 2016 2:53 PM Flag

    The problem is Amazon has negative margins in streaming so it can't expand at the same pace as Netflix. The same goes for Hulu as Disney one of Hulu's owners said "they are losing money and will continue to in the coming years". Apple remains on the sidelines looking at Amazon and Hulu take a beating. You can't expand that fast when your losing money because the loses expand just as fast. Netflix who is profitable is taking advantage and is expanding as fast as it can. If a strong competitor doesn't show up Netflix will continue to grow until it controls content distribution and end up being the most profitable media company of all time.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Disasters are looming for Netflix...

    by george_broski Jan 30, 2016 8:34 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Jan 31, 2016 1:29 PM Flag

    With 3 billion for content Netflix outspent the competition last year and because of this they weren't able to take market share from Netflix. Netflix spending 6 billion this year will make it that much harder for the competition. The barrier to entry is Netflix's ability to grow subscribers which enables them to spend more for content. The 37% Netflix traffic vs only 3.1% for Amazon and 2.6% for Hulu shows just how weak the competition is. These numbers haven't changed much over the years and it appears they won't as Netflix keeps increasing it's spending on content making it harder to take market share from them.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Disasters are looming for Netflix...

    by george_broski Jan 30, 2016 8:34 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Jan 31, 2016 9:29 AM Flag

    Competitors couldn't eat away at Netflix's market share last year when Netflix's content spending was 3 billion. They aren't going to any better this year with Netflix spending 7 billion for content.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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