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Netflix, Inc. Message Board

garolou22 175 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 1, 2016 8:23 AM Member since: Apr 25, 2006
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  • Reply to

    NFLX to tank below $50

    by george_broski Jan 30, 2016 10:57 AM
    garolou22 garolou22 Feb 1, 2016 8:23 AM Flag

    Wait a minute, remember Hastings call out for material global profits starting in 2017, which I believe was really what sparked the big rally last year. Well here they come. The PE is 78 based on next years analysts est of $1.17/ share, a 368% increase. Analysts's see sales growth accelerating to 29% this year from 23% last year. Netflix's monopoly in internet TV is picking up steam and is about to embark on a multiyear run of triple digit earnings growth while maintaining 30% revenue growth through a combination of subscriber additions and price increases.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Disasters are looming for Netflix...

    by george_broski Jan 30, 2016 8:34 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Jan 31, 2016 4:45 PM Flag

    If Amazon is closing the gap in content they aren't closing the gap in viewership which means they have a distribution problem. Spending more money on content and not getting the desired viewership is bad and it shows they are getting weaker competing with Netflix. Now that Netflix has finished it's international expansion it will return it's focus on the US the biggest market of all. TV is one area that Amazon will not win as long as Hastings is around. It looks like cable companies are conceding distribution to the internet companies and have left the networks to fend for themselves. They need distribution. With the weak streaming competition there is a huge opportunity facing Netflix. I agree, a lot of fireworks in store for pay TV.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Disasters are looming for Netflix...

    by george_broski Jan 30, 2016 8:34 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Jan 31, 2016 2:53 PM Flag

    The problem is Amazon has negative margins in streaming so it can't expand at the same pace as Netflix. The same goes for Hulu as Disney one of Hulu's owners said "they are losing money and will continue to in the coming years". Apple remains on the sidelines looking at Amazon and Hulu take a beating. You can't expand that fast when your losing money because the loses expand just as fast. Netflix who is profitable is taking advantage and is expanding as fast as it can. If a strong competitor doesn't show up Netflix will continue to grow until it controls content distribution and end up being the most profitable media company of all time.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Disasters are looming for Netflix...

    by george_broski Jan 30, 2016 8:34 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Jan 31, 2016 1:29 PM Flag

    With 3 billion for content Netflix outspent the competition last year and because of this they weren't able to take market share from Netflix. Netflix spending 6 billion this year will make it that much harder for the competition. The barrier to entry is Netflix's ability to grow subscribers which enables them to spend more for content. The 37% Netflix traffic vs only 3.1% for Amazon and 2.6% for Hulu shows just how weak the competition is. These numbers haven't changed much over the years and it appears they won't as Netflix keeps increasing it's spending on content making it harder to take market share from them.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Disasters are looming for Netflix...

    by george_broski Jan 30, 2016 8:34 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Jan 31, 2016 9:29 AM Flag

    Competitors couldn't eat away at Netflix's market share last year when Netflix's content spending was 3 billion. They aren't going to any better this year with Netflix spending 7 billion for content.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hello FX

    by cashback_7 Jan 30, 2016 12:00 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Jan 30, 2016 1:31 PM Flag

    FX can't produce another Sons of Anarchy with declining sales and rising production costs. FX are complaining because they are on a road to going out of business competing with Netflix, but they can get back onto a road of growth by: 1) Get a long term content deal with Netflix. They can do this. They are capable of producing great content and Netflix has the buyers for it. 2) produce content that's good enough to ensure Netflix keeps renewing the content deal. The complaining will stop as they grow right alongside Netflix.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • garolou22 garolou22 Jan 30, 2016 8:44 AM Flag

    What Landgraf says doesn't add up. If he believes there's too much content then he should be selling his content to Hastings who says there's not enough content. The #1 thing FX does best is produce content and the #1 thing Netflix does best is sell content. Netflix is forced to produce it's own content because they don't have enough to meet demand while Landgraf has a hard time selling his content and FX sales are declining. It boggles the mind. This is the weak competition Hastings faces today.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • garolou22 garolou22 Jan 29, 2016 5:00 PM Flag

    With Netflix Originals the competition have nothing left to stop Netflix. The blueprint for making good content has been around for a long time. Netflix has the blueprint for selling it to the masses. 7 billion for content this year and maybe another 11 billion next year, if only they could get their hands on more. They have buyers for it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • garolou22 garolou22 Jan 29, 2016 2:17 PM Flag

    Everyone has content delivery and the same networks. Distribution is what separates Netflix from the pack: knowing what content sells, how much to buy based on accurate long term forecasts, how much to pay and how much to charge. Doing this in 190 countries with the gas pedal floored. Distribution is king and Netflix will own content distribution and be able to set prices.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • garolou22 garolou22 Jan 29, 2016 1:08 PM Flag

    Facebook and Apple are both growth companies so you can't compare them without looking at growth. Apple has lost it's growth and revenue is in decline while Facebook is growing at 50%.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why the hell is NFLX down so much?

    by gerrys_h Jan 29, 2016 10:56 AM
    garolou22 garolou22 Jan 29, 2016 12:32 PM Flag

    Netflix is down with Amazon. They are both internet companies investing profits in growth but in completely different businesses. Netflix has a lot less competition and will be a lot more profitable than Amazon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    adversting coming to nflx

    by michaeltraina Jan 29, 2016 10:41 AM
    garolou22 garolou22 Jan 29, 2016 11:27 AM Flag

    After Hastings has captured more than 50% of global content distribution he will set his sight on Netflix's next big opportunity, that could very well be the 600 billion a year global ad market.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    O/S + PE + Market Cap = unjustified....

    by chinamelt15 Jan 29, 2016 9:49 AM
    garolou22 garolou22 Jan 29, 2016 10:09 AM Flag

    Reality is Netflix subscriber growth is 30% and other major TV networks are losing subscribers. When does this trend end? If it ends today Netflix is worth 50. If it never ends Netflix is worth 500. Down 30% is a good time to buy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Watch AMZN report tonight

    by sunroof9 Jan 28, 2016 1:10 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Jan 28, 2016 1:22 PM Flag

    They never have much to say with streaming but this is no surprise considering how much of a beating they're taking from Netflix.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Netflix is king of distribution and

    by garolou22 Jan 28, 2016 8:36 AM
    garolou22 garolou22 Jan 28, 2016 11:11 AM Flag

    A lot of open freeway for Netflix and Hastings will keep it floored.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Netflix is king of distribution and

    by garolou22 Jan 28, 2016 8:36 AM
    garolou22 garolou22 Jan 28, 2016 9:41 AM Flag

    Content spending grows in line with distribution growth, this is normal. The broadcast stations, then cable companies and now internet TV. Throughout the 80 year history of TV distributors have always made more money than content producers. This also is normal as distribution is always changing for the better while content production doesn't change much, people always want to watch the same kind of shows.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Distribution is king not content. Always has been. Back to 130 in february and 250 by year end.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Einhorn shorting AMZN and NFLX

    by tradeandforget Jan 24, 2016 5:55 AM
    garolou22 garolou22 Jan 27, 2016 8:53 AM Flag

    Netflix trading volume is consistently among the market leaders and this makes it very hard to rig. The big price swings are due to the wide range in analysts' earnings estimates. Without a strong competitor generating the same type of growth Netflix earnings estimates will need to be revised much higher.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Guy Adami

    by bull_dot_com Jan 26, 2016 10:19 AM
    garolou22 garolou22 Jan 26, 2016 5:16 PM Flag

    Good call. If the market hadn't sucked last year Netflix would have hit my 1000 target but I'm happy that it got close with a high of 930. Netflix is averaging 130% a year since it bottomed at 8 in 2012. I think the stock continues up at the same pace until subscriber growth starts to slow probably sometime in 2018.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Guy Adami

    by bull_dot_com Jan 26, 2016 10:19 AM
    garolou22 garolou22 Jan 26, 2016 12:02 PM Flag

    Netflix is up 2000% since it launched internet TV. If the stock went up in a straight line everybody would own it but the best performing stocks are the most volatile and because of this most investors don't want to own them and end up underperforming the market.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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