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Netflix, Inc. Message Board

garolou22 75 posts  |  Last Activity: 17 hours ago Member since: Apr 25, 2006
  • garolou22 garolou22 17 hours ago Flag

    We passed the time years ago when Amazon and the rest of the competition could just talk a good game and they needed to show it. We are still waiting for them to show it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • garolou22 garolou22 Apr 26, 2016 2:37 PM Flag

    Value is the magic bullet and Netflix has the best value. Price or the number of channels has nothing do with it. Netflix has scale and they will be able to offer all the best cable TV can offer including sports for a better price. All the best content for a better price equals value and consumers will always choose the best value.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • garolou22 garolou22 Apr 26, 2016 12:43 PM Flag

    I'm talking about value not price. A streaming service can cost $5 a month and have less value than Netflix. This is key because Netflix can keep adding content and raising prices until their price is $100/mon like cable TV and offer better value than cable TV. Every consumer will have ditched cable TV and joined Netflix. Their is no one that can stop them, the consumer is in charge here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • garolou22 garolou22 Apr 26, 2016 11:23 AM Flag

    Money talks and is the universal language. Netflix is licensing and producing content in all the major languages. Consumers always choose the best value to save money, the desire to not overpay is firmly implanted in our genes. Netflix offers the best value and it keeps getting better. There's only one outcome, Netflix will control the global TV market. But before they do there's going to be a whole lotta growth goin on, they are just getting started.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • garolou22 garolou22 Apr 26, 2016 8:55 AM Flag

    Netflix is on track for 20 million adds this year. More importantly the competition won't come close to adding this many in total and they will fall further behind. I remember not so long ago a few bullish analysts predicted Netflix would eventually reach 50 million subscribers. Streaming was considered a niche market, now industry watchers are saying cable TV will be replaced by internet TV. There's a lot of complacency around while Netflix stock has cooled off. I have a feeling it won't last that much longer.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    300 million netflix users in 5 years.

    by hawkster654 Apr 23, 2016 6:16 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Apr 25, 2016 9:11 AM Flag

    You are making the same mistake as most - valuing Netflix as a regular company in a regular industry. The only difference is you are more bullish than most. The MC difference between Netflix being one of 4 major internet TV companies or Netflix having a monopoly could be as much as 400 billion. This situation is rare and the stock will not just follow revenue growth higher at around 25% to 30% a year. If it appears the threat to Netflix's monopoly continues to fade investors won't wait, they will immediately discount a portion of the 400 billion causing the stock to jump as much as 150% in short period of time as we have already seen.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    300 million netflix users in 5 years.

    by hawkster654 Apr 23, 2016 6:16 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Apr 24, 2016 10:49 PM Flag

    There's not much risk for 10 billion profits by maturity. Profits could be multiple times higher than 10 billion, Netflix has a monopoly in internet TV which will be a larger market than cable TV.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    300 million netflix users in 5 years.

    by hawkster654 Apr 23, 2016 6:16 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Apr 24, 2016 9:36 PM Flag

    With internet TV still in the early stage and Netflix's dominant lead chances are there will be news that justifies more 160% rallies.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    300 million netflix users in 5 years.

    by hawkster654 Apr 23, 2016 6:16 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Apr 24, 2016 7:33 PM Flag

    We had no quantification in 2015 that would calibrate calls between 75 and 128, the same applies now. When the stock gets to 150 it will have broken out of the trading range it's been in since August and momentum investors along with short covering will send it to 250, similar to what happened when it broke out of it's trading range in 2014.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    300 million netflix users in 5 years.

    by hawkster654 Apr 23, 2016 6:16 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Apr 24, 2016 5:04 PM Flag

    Remember when Netflix reported much lower than expected US adds for Q3 2014, the stock dropped 20% to 47. Ten months later it was 128. Nothing is changed and with the large market potential compared to Netflix's small market cap still in place the stock should continue to perform like it has over the past several years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    300 million netflix users in 5 years.

    by hawkster654 Apr 23, 2016 6:16 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Apr 24, 2016 9:19 AM Flag

    I think it can hit 250 in a year as the huge opportunity becomes more apparent. Netflix has a solid lead in the value they offer and it keeps getting better as they add better content. Consumers will always choose the best value to save money. Netflix will make the value they offer consistent around the globe and over 1 billion broadband subscribers will choose Netflix for their TV viewing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    NFLX closed at $96.41 on JUNE 22nd, 2015 Wow!

    by jorcas00 Apr 22, 2016 6:03 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Apr 23, 2016 8:12 AM Flag

    Not only 2015 but also the great momo stock of 2010 and 2013. Makes sense there is more to come with Hastings operating and internet TV in the early stage.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I see the end of HBO, and cable coming

    by hawkster654 Apr 20, 2016 12:46 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Apr 21, 2016 7:48 PM Flag

    The content obligation number is the most important number of all. The big jump to 12 billion means that Netflix sees strong demand ahead and need to buy more content. I don't need to see any other number to tell me that Netflix is a strong buy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I see the end of HBO, and cable coming

    by hawkster654 Apr 20, 2016 12:46 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Apr 21, 2016 1:36 PM Flag

    The low cost benefit Netflix has over the big media companies in owning both distribution and original content is reflected in the stock price going from 15 to 128 in just over 2 years. Netflix forecast streaming revenues will reach 7.03 billion by the end of this quarter, a 30% increase year on year. At 30% growth the numbers get very big very fast, too big now for any competitor to stop Netflix from taking over the TV market. Keep in mind that the subscribers HBO has or any other major network like CBS has are not their own subscribers but belong to the many cable companies which squeeze these networks' profits and therefore growth. Netflix free from having to hand over it's profits to cable are able instead to invest these profits in content and take market share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I see the end of HBO, and cable coming

    by hawkster654 Apr 20, 2016 12:46 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Apr 21, 2016 8:45 AM Flag

    Netflix has cornered the market. They are the only major media company that has both distribution and original content and because of this Netflix has the lowest costs. No one can beat Netflix on price and this allows them to grow 30% at the expense of Direct TV, Time Warner, Disney, Comcast and the rest. Other streaming services like Hulu and Amazon prime have to eat into Netflix's 80%+ market share or else Netflix will eventually control the TV market and be able to set prices for both content and consumers.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why NFLXover 100 went up from 92 ah ?

    by sonw067 Apr 18, 2016 5:48 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Apr 18, 2016 7:20 PM Flag

    They forecast 33% streaming revenue growth for this quarter up from 30% growth in the first quarter. Recent quarterly results have been lumpy but revenue growth remains on track and trending higher.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    bulls, how do you value netflix

    by pk7689 Apr 13, 2016 1:47 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Apr 13, 2016 4:43 PM Flag

    The US video subscription market is around 110 billion a year. The typical valuation for a TV network is 2x sales. When internet TV takes over from cable and if Netflix is still the leader with 50% market share ( it's current market share of internet TV is over 80%) then it would deserve 3x sales or more than 150 billion market cap, and this does not include the bigger international opportunity. The market is very eager to bid the stock higher on any evidence that Netflix is maintaining it's dominate lead.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    bulls, how do you value netflix

    by pk7689 Apr 13, 2016 1:47 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Apr 13, 2016 3:40 PM Flag

    Internet TV is the next wave and Netflix is the dominant leader. IF they remain the dominant leader then the stock is a way undervalued. It's the big IF that makes the stock so volatile. For each year Netflix maintains it's dominant position the big IF gets smaller and Netflix's market valuation gets more inline with the mega market valuation it will have as the leader of TV when cable TV is no longer around.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    NFLX's sweet progression!

    by turnermuseum Apr 13, 2016 10:24 AM
    garolou22 garolou22 Apr 13, 2016 12:28 PM Flag

    Yes, mistakes that the competition are afraid to make so they refuse to get in the ring with Hastings. It's not a fair fight, Hastings is too good.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    NFLX's sweet progression!

    by turnermuseum Apr 13, 2016 10:24 AM
    garolou22 garolou22 Apr 13, 2016 11:18 AM Flag

    With original content Hastings' virtuous cycle has gone into hyperdrive. The real progression however is the competitions failure, in comparison, to take advantage of the huge opportunity that internet TV brings. Each year the competition fails the likely hood they will never succeed competing with Netflix increases.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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