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Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Message Board

garolou22 165 posts  |  Last Activity: 9 hours ago Member since: Apr 25, 2006
  • Reply to

    Anyone worried about valuation?

    by akka999 May 15, 2015 6:41 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 May 16, 2015 9:16 PM Flag

    Yes I did answer the question. The off balance sheet liabilities have risen in line with revenues. If you want specific numbers look them up yourself. The bigger Netflix revenues grow the bigger the off balance sheet liabilities (or content obligations as Netflix calls them) grow. The growth of these content obligations along with Netflix's low subscription fee make up their barrier to entry. The more subscribers Netflix add the higher the revenues, the higher the content obligations and the higher the barrier to entry for competitors. This barrier Is basically impenatratable now. The competition without subscriber growth are too weak. When Netflix license content the contract can extend over several years. The content they receive in the following years is accounted as content obligations. No need for this amount to be on the balance sheet if it is for content they will receive in the following years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Anyone worried about valuation?

    by akka999 May 15, 2015 6:41 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 May 16, 2015 6:34 PM Flag

    Liabilities have been rising in line with revenues for many years. This has not stopped the stock from advancing. The off sheet liabilities are for content not yet delivered and will be paid off with future revenue when the content is delivered. Now let me ask you a question. How many subscribers will Netflix have in the future? Also, will Netflix with their fast growth and their original content become not only much bigger than HBO but also much more profitable since HBO don't have their own subscribers and have to split their profits with the distributors?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Anyone worried about valuation?

    by akka999 May 15, 2015 6:41 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 May 16, 2015 5:02 PM Flag

    Revenue is cash and revenue is growing 25%. The average revenue growth for other major media companies is less than 5%. Opening new markets in the TV industry is expensive as it always has been and Netflix is taking advantage of it's fast revenue growth by buying market share. Everyday it's business as usual as Netflix slowly take over the TV market while the competition stumble. As long as this story plays out the stock market will bid the stock higher. Your stock fraud/ no free cash flow argument is a weak one.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Anyone worried about valuation?

    by akka999 May 15, 2015 6:41 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 May 16, 2015 3:33 PM Flag

    It's not clear at all that options manipulation drives the price. We see the price making big moves with news on subscriber growth and it's very clear why. We know HBO is very profitable and Netflix is even more profitable with not only it's own content but also it's own distribution system. They plow profits back into market expansion. With weak competition Netflix is well on it's way to becoming a mega cap global TV company.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Anyone worried about valuation?

    by akka999 May 15, 2015 6:41 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 May 16, 2015 11:38 AM Flag

    If you can't show how Netflix is overvalued then it's worth $613 a share according to the market. If you believe there is any trading fraud take it somewhere else. People who come to this board are only interested in where the stock is headed.

  • Reply to

    Anyone worried about valuation?

    by akka999 May 15, 2015 6:41 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 May 16, 2015 9:19 AM Flag

    Do you have any idea of how many subscribers Netflix will have in the future?

  • Reply to

    Anyone worried about valuation?

    by akka999 May 15, 2015 6:41 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 May 16, 2015 8:29 AM Flag

    Netflix valuation is based on how many subscribers it will have in the future. Notice the extreme volitilaty in the stock after every ER when investors get the latest read on subscriber growth and how it projects to the number of subscribers in the future. Do you have any idea how many subscribers they will have 100, 200, 300, 400 million or more? If you don't then you don't have any idea of what Netflix's valuation is. Let the market decide, it knows best especially when bullish stock market sentiment has recently been lowered.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • garolou22 garolou22 May 15, 2015 8:50 AM Flag

    They love House of Cards and Marco Polo. Netflix should be able to get a deal done in China.

  • That's 25 Chinese/ share!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Waiting for good news

    by garolou22 May 14, 2015 9:36 AM
    garolou22 garolou22 May 14, 2015 3:25 PM Flag

    With it's fast subscriber growth and original content Netflix now has leverage in Hollywood. As long as content companies can sell better content than Netflix can produce then Netflix will write the big checks out to them and to meet their quarterly numbers content companies will keep taking the checks. Not being able to tap into Netflix's huge fast growing subscriber base because you don't have good enough content is what's at stake for Hollywood companies and the quality and amount of Netflix originals could be a big threat to their livelihood.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Waiting for good news

    by garolou22 May 14, 2015 9:36 AM
    garolou22 garolou22 May 14, 2015 1:44 PM Flag

    Subscriber growth ticked up last quarter. It will be interesting to see if this is a new trend with all the great original content coming out and Europe just starting to ramp up. Looks like the stock's strong price action (up 75%) in a flat market so far this year is already telling us subscriber growth is now on the rise after hitting a low of 29%.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • garolou22 by garolou22 May 14, 2015 9:36 AM Flag

    That will send Netflix to new highs, again. That's the way it goes when the competition is weak with no growth.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    what is the story behind NFLX's rally today ?

    by chkpfbeliever May 11, 2015 1:11 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 May 11, 2015 8:50 PM Flag

    Any TV network that doesn't produce better content than Netflix originals will probably go out of business. Only those networks that produce content that's the same or better than Netflix originals will be able to grow their licensing revenues with Netflix. Problem is their cable revenues are decreasing. This gives Netflix with their fast revenue growth the advantage in spending on original content. If TV networks can't match the quality of Netflix originals then Netflix will corner the market.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    what is the story behind NFLX's rally today ?

    by chkpfbeliever May 11, 2015 1:11 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 May 11, 2015 4:06 PM Flag

    Netflix is materially hurting their business now not in the long term, it is here it is now. Netflix stock has to hit new highs. It's always about what they will do but they never do it because they can't do anything. They can't match Netflix's service and make money. If they ask too much for their content Netflix will just make their own. Without growth they are weak.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    what is the story behind NFLX's rally today ?

    by chkpfbeliever May 11, 2015 1:11 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 May 11, 2015 3:25 PM Flag

    If the networks decided to stop licensing content to Netflix their revenues would take a hit along with their stocks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    what is the story behind NFLX's rally today ?

    by chkpfbeliever May 11, 2015 1:11 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 May 11, 2015 3:09 PM Flag

    No assumption was made in the study by Moffettnathanson. They said the 10% drop in TV ad dollars along with the drop in viewing is 43% due to Netflix. Netflix are disrupting the whole TV industry right now not in the future. It is here it is now and the stock has to be hitting new highs now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The competition is dead in the water

    by garolou22 May 11, 2015 12:15 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 May 11, 2015 1:32 PM Flag

    "We will generate material global profits from 2017 onward" as Hastings put it in Netflix's Q4 Letter to Shareholders.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The competition is dead in the water

    by garolou22 May 11, 2015 12:15 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 May 11, 2015 1:12 PM Flag

    The biggest fallacy out there is Netflix doesn't make much profit. With no competition they make huge profits which go to expanding their unmatched service around the globe. The profits they will report when the expansion is over will be mind boggling.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The competition is dead in the water

    by garolou22 May 11, 2015 12:15 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 May 11, 2015 12:44 PM Flag

    The size of the internet TV market will surprise to the upside. The stock market is in the process of discounting discounting this. It has a long way to go.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Buy all you can below $1000. It's going to $4000 in 3 years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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