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Netflix, Inc. Message Board

garolou22 165 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 22 minutes ago Member since: Apr 25, 2006
  • Reply to

    Looks like Netflix is holding up the whole market

    by garolou22 Aug 11, 2015 1:50 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Aug 11, 2015 3:04 PM Flag

    I also told you to join me in taking a random walk with Netflix to 1000 more than 2 years ago when it was 100. Smarten up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • It's dragged other big internet names along with it this year.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Historic price spike underway in Netflix shares

    by garolou22 May 26, 2015 9:42 AM
    garolou22 garolou22 Aug 11, 2015 1:02 PM Flag

    Disney said they are losing ESPN subscribers and the stocked got slammed. Disney could return to subscriber growth by acquiring Netflix. Disney/Netflix a match made in heaven,

    Sentiment: Buy

  • garolou22 garolou22 Aug 10, 2015 5:58 PM Flag

    Content spending is 50% of revenue so knowing what content to buy and how much it's worth is the key to making money in streaming. There is lot of content and all different with different values. No one comes close to Netflix when it comes to knowing content.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • garolou22 garolou22 Aug 10, 2015 5:35 PM Flag

    There is a good reason why competition has remained weak over the years and it is because of the skill that Netflix has in knowing what content to buy and how much to pay for it. The competition do not have this skill, they don't know what content to buy and when they do buy they don't know how much the content is worth and end up losing money competing with Netflix. As the competition drag their heels Netflix's skill not only gets better each day they operate but they keep increasing their huge lead. Investors can only give the competition so much time to respond and we are now beyond that time and investors want a piece of the internet TV rock which is Netflix.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • garolou22 garolou22 Aug 10, 2015 4:40 PM Flag

    Netflix has pricing power because it's the demand for Netflix that's causing content prices to go up. Content prices continue to go up even as the demand for cable TV gets weaker. Content companies want in on the Netflix action leaving Netflix with the pick of the litter. The stock goes up a hundred bucks (pre split) every month because investors realize content owners can't ask for too much or Netflix will choose to spend more of their ever growing stream of cash on original content. Amazing profit growth is on it's way for Netflix.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • garolou22 garolou22 Aug 10, 2015 3:16 PM Flag

    No wonder at all. In January Hastings said they would generate material global profits starting in 2017 and with Q1 and Q2 ER revealing subscriber growth is on the rise again those profits look even better. Netflix usually goes up a lot when you get that much good news. Lot of good news still to come.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • garolou22 garolou22 Aug 10, 2015 12:37 PM Flag

    Content is not a commodity. Content prices only go up never down. This gives Netflix tremendous pricing power because when they enter exclusive licensing deals or when they produce original content they own the distribution rights. Netflix will increase it's fees at the same rate content prices rise.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    NFLX is WAYYY overvalued...here's why

    by noofnoof1 Aug 9, 2015 11:50 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Aug 10, 2015 9:27 AM Flag

    Netflix could be a way undervalued. Content providers around the world take in around 100 billion a year. With the fall of cable TV and the weak competition Netflix could easily grow subscribers until they control about 60% of distribution and be able to set prices for both content and consumers. They could take in around 150 billion a year and leave 60 billion for the content providers. Netflix would net over 50 billion a year and become the first trillion MC.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Amazon is a fierce competitor

    by notabull99 Aug 8, 2015 10:15 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Aug 9, 2015 1:59 PM Flag

    Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon are not in the business of acquiring, marketing/selling and distributing video content. Video content is very expensive and these companies don't know the value of content. When content comes up for bidding they have no idea of how much to pay. Netflix knows and they walk away with the content deal after the competition hesitate because they believe they will end up paying too much. This is why we have been waiting for Apple TV for 3 years, why Netflix has 15 times more video traffic than Amazon and why Google are still trying to figure out a video subscripton service. It's too late now, Netflix is too big, they have too big a lead and investors are taking notice.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Amazon is a fierce competitor

    by notabull99 Aug 8, 2015 10:15 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Aug 9, 2015 11:08 AM Flag

    Amazon can't outbid Netflix for exclusive content if they don't know the value of the content because they will lose money so they remain cautious losing out to Netflix who is acquiring the best content. Amazon cannot undercut Netflix prices if they don't have the content. The same goes for original content. Netflix knows what content to produce and how much to pay while Amazon doesn't have a clue. With people spending so much time watching TV it's a great business to be in. Everybody wants to get in the TV business but you have to know content which is very expensive and all with different values.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • garolou22 garolou22 Aug 9, 2015 10:30 AM Flag

    This is a good example why people lose money betting against great growth companies. In 2012 savvy investors knew that Netflix would not generate any free cash flow over the next 3 years as the stock traded near 2 year lows. Today these same investors see tons of free cash flow in 3 years from now as the stock makes new all time highs. In the 3 years prior to 2012 Netflix went up 15 fold with the short interest bumping up against 40% as the bears warned of higher content costs which eventually caused the stock to crash. Today the short interest continues to spiral down into the single digits as the bears see no reason to short.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Amazon is a fierce competitor

    by notabull99 Aug 8, 2015 10:15 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Aug 9, 2015 9:35 AM Flag

    Amazon is a very good merchandiser but they are taking a bad beating from Netflix when it comes to distributing content and the simple reason is Amazon doesn't know the value of content. The same goes for Apple, Google or anyone else not in the business. If you don't know the value of something you buy you're going to lose money when you sell it. All content is different and when it's produced the value is unknown regardless of how much it cost to produce. Netflix, the best in the business at determining the value of content, is even much better at it than the cable companies who don't have this skill because of the cost standardization of the bundle. Before anyone else acquires the skill of determining the value of content it will be too late, Netflix will have cornered the market.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Disney CEO on Netflix

    by wall_st_trendsetter Aug 8, 2015 2:27 PM
    garolou22 garolou22 Aug 8, 2015 4:21 PM Flag

    With Netflix continuing to increase it's percentage of original content Disney can only grow with Netflix if they buy them out. Netflix said they would start generating material profits in 2017. I think after that Netflix and Disney will merge. Hastings will take over as CEO while Iger retires.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AAPL past,NFLX future

    by shi_y_b Aug 8, 2015 5:20 AM
    garolou22 garolou22 Aug 8, 2015 10:05 AM Flag

    "Netflix will have stiff competition going forward". Where have you been? This is the same old tired bearish argument that we have heard for years now.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AAPL past,NFLX future

    by shi_y_b Aug 8, 2015 5:20 AM
    garolou22 garolou22 Aug 8, 2015 9:49 AM Flag

    In 2012 news of an Apple TV scarred the hell out of Netflix investors. Since then Netflix has added 40 million subscribers while Apple TV remains a concept.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • garolou22 garolou22 Aug 7, 2015 10:16 AM Flag

    The loss to the bottom line ends with the completion of their expansion next year. With weak competition Hastings should have no problem maintaining 30% growth for many years to come with a combination of subscriber growth and gradual price increases. The key of course is weak competition and without competition there is no reason why Facebook should be trading and 20x revenue and Netflix only at 9x. The parabolic move in the stock could be just getting underway. Remember most of the parabolic move in Facebook came before it's IPO.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • garolou22 garolou22 Aug 7, 2015 9:39 AM Flag

    That's 33% streaming growth, with their declining DVD business it's 25% growth. Apple have to keep on coming out with the next big upgrade to keep that growth which is very hard to do, Netflix only have to keep adding good content.

    The TV industry will only grow like it always has because we are all addicted to TV. Old media companies are losing business to Netflix. The trend continues until someone stops it. Right now there is no one in sight who can stop Netflix.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • garolou22 garolou22 Aug 7, 2015 9:14 AM Flag

    With over 33% streaming revenue growth it doesn't take that long for the PS to drop to Disney and Time Warner levels. That's exactly what happened last year but with 30% revenue growth compared to single digits for Disney and TWX investors decided it was too cheap.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • garolou22 garolou22 Aug 7, 2015 9:01 AM Flag

    And it was trading at 160x next years earning 3 months ago when the stock was 80 which tells you investors aren't focused on next years earnings, but a lot of people don't get it and lose money betting against Netflix.

    Sentiment: Buy

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