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California Amplifier (CAMP) Message Board

garrigan69 67 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 20, 2015 11:47 AM Member since: Aug 5, 2009
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  • garrigan69 garrigan69 Apr 2, 2015 9:10 AM Flag

    Laman, It's OK. I'm a big boy and they're right. I was hoping that I was wrong. The numbers still don't match the long term trend, but much better than the last two months. Revs increased by $18k per store, long term trend was calling for $27K. All in all, this was a good report and I'm happy that I was wrong. GLTA, except Ace.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    MARCH SSS

    by garrigan69 Mar 31, 2015 7:24 AM
    garrigan69 garrigan69 Apr 2, 2015 8:44 AM Flag

    WOW, Xirio_res, did I accidentally pee in your cornflakes? You should read all my posts, not just the last few months worth. As for my oil stocks, I haven't been burned. You are correct that I missed Jan, and Feb. SSS(see post below), but go back to last year's estimates and you'll see that I was fairly close. I'm sorry you feel that I'm "bragging", that is not my intent. I only hope to bring information to other investors so they may see things from a different perspective.

    "I have been tracking the average per store revenue on a monthly basis for 3 years. In June 2013, RAD SSS started to climb and has increased for 21 straight months. The average per store revenue also increased by about $1000 per store, per month,(over the previous month), until Jan 2015 where the increase (according to the trend) should have been about $26,000 per store. The increase was only $20,000. Feb 2015 should have been $27,000 per store, but turned out to be a dismal $11, 000."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    MARCH SSS

    by garrigan69 Mar 31, 2015 7:24 AM
    garrigan69 garrigan69 Apr 1, 2015 3:36 PM Flag

    See my previous posts. I do a lot of DD and have multiple spread sheets with trend lines. Sorry I can't go into more detail, got to go. Maybe tomorrow afternoon I'll have some time to explain further.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    MARCH SSS

    by garrigan69 Mar 31, 2015 7:24 AM
    garrigan69 garrigan69 Apr 1, 2015 3:29 PM Flag

    I have been tracking the average per store revenue on a monthly basis for 3 years. In June 2013, RAD SSS started to climb and has increased for 21 straight months. The average per store revenue also increased by about $1000 per store, per month,(over the previous month), until Jan 2015 where the increase (according to the trend) should have been about $26,000 per store. The increase was only $20,000. Feb 2015 should have been $27,000 per store, but turned out to be a dismal $11, 000. Hope this helps.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    MARCH SSS

    by garrigan69 Mar 31, 2015 7:24 AM
    garrigan69 garrigan69 Apr 1, 2015 3:06 PM Flag

    IF,(and that's a big IF) RAD is back to the long term trend, look for sales to be around $2.065B. I sure hope your right and my estimate is wrong. GLTA, except Ace.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    kathadin100

    by garrigan69 Mar 31, 2015 2:48 PM
    garrigan69 garrigan69 Apr 1, 2015 7:38 AM Flag

    Nice post, still not an estimate though. Feb SSS was a continuation of January's underwhelming report. The LONG term trend was calling for Jan SSS to be about $2.056B, RAD missed that by $30M. Using the same logic, RAD missed Feb SSS by $66M. I have said that management was busy with the acq. and that may have accounted for the drop. I am hoping that is over and RAD is back on track. Unfortunately, the SHORT term trend I see, could show March SSS where flat to a slight increase over last year. My estimates are usually on the conservative side, but I am being a bit optimistic for March from what my eyes and ears are telling me. Long since $1.20. GLTA, except Ace.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • garrigan69 by garrigan69 Mar 31, 2015 2:48 PM Flag

    Please enlighten us with your prediction of what RAD will report for March SSS.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    MARCH SSS

    by garrigan69 Mar 31, 2015 7:24 AM
    garrigan69 garrigan69 Mar 31, 2015 12:49 PM Flag

    Laylow, you and Cshjr4 make a good point that we may get a buying op, albeit a short one. SSS are on Thursday the 2nd and earnings on Wednesday the 8th. That gives us 4 days to get in before earnings(which I believe will be very good). I had to sell some of my position last month,(new car) and now have a little cash to put back into RAD. At this point, I can only hope for a drop. With so much spec going on, Cshjr4 may be right in saying that SSS won't have much of an impact. GLTY

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    MARCH SSS

    by garrigan69 Mar 31, 2015 7:24 AM
    garrigan69 garrigan69 Mar 31, 2015 11:46 AM Flag

    I'm pretty sure I know more about RAD than you. I've been following RAD for a long time and made a small fortune on it's stock. I DON'T do guess work when it comes to investing. BTW, still waiting for your estimate.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    WOW RAD is popping

    by sarge198502 Mar 31, 2015 10:21 AM
    garrigan69 garrigan69 Mar 31, 2015 11:06 AM Flag

    Still waiting for your estimate. I'm betting you don't have one.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • garrigan69 garrigan69 Mar 31, 2015 8:04 AM Flag

    DJ, put that one on ignore, Not the same Ace.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    MARCH SSS

    by garrigan69 Mar 31, 2015 7:24 AM
    garrigan69 garrigan69 Mar 31, 2015 7:58 AM Flag

    Sorry, forgot earnings. Here is what I have:
    Rev: $6.825B
    Gross: $1.940B
    SG & A: $1.720
    Unusual: $10M
    Interest Expense: $97M
    Income Tax: $6m
    Net: $107M
    EPS: $0.10

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    MARCH SSS

    by garrigan69 Mar 31, 2015 7:24 AM
    garrigan69 garrigan69 Mar 31, 2015 7:56 AM Flag

    I believe that RAD management was busy with the acquiring EnvisionRx, that they "took their eye off the ball" so to speak. That coupled with the cold weather in the northeast and less advertising has put a damper on sales. The recent SSS have increased, but at drastically lower revenue. Now that we're past that, I believe that sales will do better after March.
    One interesting note. Store count has leveled off, and the decline we've seen over the last 5+ years seems to be over.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    MARCH SSS

    by garrigan69 Mar 31, 2015 7:24 AM
    garrigan69 garrigan69 Mar 31, 2015 7:35 AM Flag

    Well, what's yours? Don't just pump, step up to the plate and take a swing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • garrigan69 by garrigan69 Mar 31, 2015 7:24 AM Flag

    I estimate that RAD will report total drug store sales of $1.983B from 4570 stores. That's a dismal increase of 2.1%. Sorry for the poor outlook, but that's what the recent trend is saying. Hope I'm wrong. GLTA, except Ace.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    garrigan

    by laman250 Mar 11, 2015 4:38 PM
    garrigan69 garrigan69 Mar 12, 2015 7:12 AM Flag

    Harrisburg is about 2 1/2 hours away. I get up that way a lot during hockey season, but that is over for now. I may be up there in a few weeks for trout season, not sure yet. If I do, I'll make sure I stop by and support my investment.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Q4/15 Income statement(unrevised)

    by garrigan69 Mar 6, 2015 11:40 AM
    garrigan69 garrigan69 Mar 6, 2015 12:23 PM Flag

    I think that RAD will beat with ease. I'm more interested in what management has to say about the aqusition of envision and what that brings to earnings.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Here is a quick look at what I see for Q4:

    Rev: $6.825B
    Gross: $1.940B
    SG & A: $1.720
    Unusual: $10M
    Interest Expense: $97M
    Income Tax: $6m
    Net: $107M
    EPS: $0.10

    GLTA, except Ace.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    RAD is a Hold At Best

    by superbowl6wins Mar 6, 2015 8:57 AM
    garrigan69 garrigan69 Mar 6, 2015 10:20 AM Flag

    Sorry my posts are causing you distress, but maybe next time you should think before you write.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    RAD is a Hold At Best

    by superbowl6wins Mar 6, 2015 8:57 AM
    garrigan69 garrigan69 Mar 6, 2015 9:57 AM Flag

    "The "Street" and the market calls it right."

    You agree with the "street", so by your statement, your making a "neutral" call on the stock, but then state that it will fail. Did you forget to take your meds this morning?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

CAMP
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