Tue, Oct 21, 2014, 11:53 AM EDT - U.S. Markets close in 4 hrs 7 mins

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

ReneSola Ltd. Message Board

garry9819 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 18, 2014 8:12 AM Member since: Oct 7, 2008
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • Reply to

    Q2 2014 Renesola Overview

    by garry9819 Aug 14, 2014 9:31 AM
    garry9819 garry9819 Aug 18, 2014 8:12 AM Flag

    Yes, that is correct. They wrote off $200million for their first plant which had a 3000MT capacity. The later plant runs at a maximum of 600MT a month, so just over 7000MT maximum. But yes, if you ask them, they will say they have 6000MT polysilicon capacity even though it can produce more.

    So, 1800MT for a quarter is maximum, 3 months at 600MT.

    Incidentally, on a similar note and reinforcing what is being said here, Daqo has been talking about poly prices rising in H2 even in China as a result of the closing of the polysilicon loophole from 1st Sept affecting all polysilicon supply globally. And secondly, JKS has just announced strong forward guidance but without specifying gross margin which is possibly significant, again with regard to all of the above, we shall see.

  • Reply to

    Q2 2014 Renesola Overview

    by garry9819 Aug 14, 2014 9:31 AM
    garry9819 garry9819 Aug 17, 2014 6:37 PM Flag

    @snake

    Yes, those were the figures given during the conference call for Q2 and now. They have not been questioned.

    I presume Solarizer has either extrapolated to go from 51 to 49 and 60 to 59 by year end based on the stated 'reduce cost even more', or picked that up in other correspondence. The further reduction of a cent or two in another 2 quarters time seems reasonable especially given the reduction in outsourced cell costs from Taiwan also mentioned during the CC which has the potential to be passed on or/and through the usual internal cost reductions through efficiency savings.

    I had not drawn attention to those figures, but had queried the same thing, because your confusion did not depend on the source of the year end figures but on what those figures meant in terms of differentiating between internal capacity and OEM capacity. Your misunderstanding meant that your figures were a long way out whereas Solarizer's year end figures are reasonable, perhaps even conservative. If you have need of a fuller explanation of why he has stated those figures, I am sure he can explain that to you.

    If you could also state your motives such as whether you are invested in Renesola or hold a short position or are looking to invest, that would make it easier to help and understand your position.

    Good Luck.

  • Reply to

    Q2 2014 Renesola Overview

    by garry9819 Aug 14, 2014 9:31 AM
    garry9819 garry9819 Aug 17, 2014 12:07 PM Flag

    Hi Nova, you are welcome.

    As Solarizer said, it is the nature of what has happened in the solar industry with the requirement for a large upfront capex exposure and then the turmoil begun by Italy suddenly shutting down a multi-GW market overnight causing chaos in terms of stock price and the ability of these companies to raise cash as secondaries rather than adding to debt.

    With Renesola, you could say that they have rather undervalued their assets, and that has always, in my view, been the case. Their polysilicon assets alone are worth north of $500million leaving precious little for their wafer/cell/module and so on. It is a slight tangent but does help in understanding LDK.

    LDK's balance sheet was always horrific, as was the attitude of the management. They had 5, 6, 7 billion in debt, 8 or 9 times that of Renesola, and correspondingly large assets though perhaps twice the capacity, at the time, of Renesola. That is all from memory, so won't be absolutely accurate, but you get the gist. LDK was an accident waiting to happen, a disaster unfolding in slow motion. I had arguments with many back then about the merits of Renesola vs LDK when LDK's stock price was multiples of Renesola, but that all changed as history shows.

    So, yes, Renesola has debt but has always done as well as it could with secondaries, given the circumstances, and bonds and has managed its resources, in my view, fairly well. It is a concern but no more than most of its peers. Given the likelihood of profits for this year and quite possibly for many years to come driven by an ever expanding market, those issues should lessen in time.

    I know nothing about RGSE and very little about HSOL. My only comment about HSOL would be to first unravel the complexities of who owns what. It seems a complicated structure and that is always a bad start. As to HSOL's competitiveness and future possibilities, I do not know only to say that they have not led at any time I can remember.

    Good Luck

  • Reply to

    Q2 2014 Renesola Overview

    by garry9819 Aug 14, 2014 9:31 AM
    garry9819 garry9819 Aug 17, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    @snake

    You are getting very confused.

    The internal capacity, using mostly outsourced cells from Taiwan etc due to Renesola only having 250MW of cell, will reach 0.49 at year end. The cell capacity has remained the same long before the OEM strategy ever existed. Renesola have never built up their cell capacity, it had always been a choice to outsource cells for whatever reason and had always quoted costs on that basis

    In other words, the 0.49 is already using outsourced cells and that cost is priced in already. You are confused in thinking that OEM cost relates to everything above 250MW. The internal 1.2GW is at 0.49 and the OEM 1.1GW is at 0.59, year end.

    The OEM strategy, as has been explained fully to you earlier, relates to avoiding the polysilicon and module duties relating to various countries and where products are manufactured. All OEM sales will be at the OEM cost and the OEM cost will be lower than their peers who will have to shoulder the extra 5-6cents for poly and the extra ~10-30 cents (so for JKS (and TSL, CSIQ), perhaps a cost of 72 cents) or so for cell/module which is said to already be pushing up the US module ASPs into the 70-80cent bracket for H2 delivery.

    For Renesola, with the OEM cost at 0.59 (far lower than JKS, TSL, CSIQ for duty qualifying modules) and ASPs rising fast, they will be able to avoid those duties and maintain a decent gross margin due to the OEM strategy and their internal polysilicon supply. In other words, yes, the OEM pricing is higher than internal but for good reason, it puts Renesola at a competitive advantage to its peers with otherwise duty-qualifying polysilicon and modules.

    Also, from 1st Sept, all other peers will suffer the up to 5-6cents poly penalty on their internal costs, which again Renesola will not. So the JKS 47 cents may rise, we shall see. Incidentally, you will find that the internal costs are often not equivalent costs, some include insurance and shipping etc, others not.

    Good Luck

  • Reply to

    Q2 2014 Renesola Overview

    by garry9819 Aug 14, 2014 9:31 AM
    garry9819 garry9819 Aug 15, 2014 7:14 AM Flag

    The simple answer is, if you do not like the approach of Renesola, invest elsewhere.

    As a timely reminder of why Renesola is addressing the global solar war through real changes in strategy (both polysilicon and modules), China has just announced that it is closing the loophole allowing Chinese manufacturers (of which CSIQ is one) to avoid paying the up to 57% duty on imported polysilicon starting in 2 weeks time.

    For a typical module, the polysilicon duty will raise the module cost by up to in the region of 5 to 6 cents alone, or around 10-12% of cost, which will either come from gross margin or will need to be added to the ASP which will affect sales volume in the same way. Renesola will avoid that extra cost. And, as you know, you cannot simply acquire polysilicon capacity, as you can with cell/module, it takes years of refinement to attain both the quality and nameplate volume.

    With regard to US duties, it is the same exact thing. CSIQ, with 55% exposure to the Americas is facing a very large problem. It only has 330MW or so of module only (does not avoid duties) capacity in Ontario, the rest (cell/module) is in China. As a matter of fact, CSIQ does not have any in-house polysilicon nor much in-house wafer supply either. In other words, CSIQ is far more exposed to US duties than Renesola (at 11% US supply Q2) and has done nothing about it.

    In terms of cost, the module duties will add even more than the impact of the polysilicon duty. And again, Renesola will avoid much of those costs (albeit paying lesser OEM costs) and so I expect to see Renesola's US export increase whilst it is conceivable that that increase will come at the expense of peers including CSIQ.

    As I stated originally, Renesola has very low costs due to it's uniquely vertical in-house manufacturing, and has also spent money catering for a range of global solar duties, which its peers have not.

    Either way, as I say, if you do not like the approach, do not invest. Good luck.

  • Reply to

    Q2 2014 Renesola Overview

    by garry9819 Aug 14, 2014 9:31 AM
    garry9819 garry9819 Aug 14, 2014 5:52 PM Flag

    You are very welcome, I am glad it helped.

    With regard to stock price, one can only say that the price will certainly go up, as to when, that is more a question for finance insiders rather than those of us on the outside. In other words, once those inside have bought enough, it will go up, and not before. Quite likely it will go up very quickly to give those who either dither on buying or take profits awaiting a dip that never comes, will miss out. But whether that is tomorrow, this year, next, or the one after, that no-one here can answer.

    If you want to trade this stock in terms of quants you will find that the only patterns that make predictable returns are ones which you cannot benefit from unless you are a market professional with access to no-fee trades and can utilize ultra high-speed orders probably on an ISO basis making small amounts frequently. The market is set up at all levels to benefit insiders and to disadvantage retail investors and the wider public. You will learn that if you spend any time as an outsider far quicker than if you were an insider.

    Having said that, yes, you can use certain quants (MACD, RSI and so on) analysis over longer terms to a degree, and should, but you still have to back it up with good fundamentals analysis in case your medium term quants fail. And you also should not underestimate discipline, courage and patience.

    If you have just started investing, don't be hard on yourself, you will lose and hopefully win too. Learn to accept losses and fight for gains. As Buffet said, be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.

    Back to your real question, what is Renesola worth? A lot more than this is certain. Above $10, yes, if it executes well, that could easily happen by the end of next year. There is no doubt that solar is the foremost energy source and with a 17,000 GW market, there is a lot of growing room. In other words, if the company succeeds, the sky is the limit.

  • Reply to

    Q2 2014 Renesola Overview

    by garry9819 Aug 14, 2014 9:31 AM
    garry9819 garry9819 Aug 14, 2014 10:12 AM Flag

    The balanced view of Renesola is that they are differentiating themselves from their peers by expanding into these new markets whilst staying very much with solar PV at their core. They do have the best cost base amongst peers, and safest, due to their in-house polysilicon. Their module efficiences are at the top end of the range at between 14.8 and 16, and they do not have any low efficiency (cheap, inferior) panels as many of their peers do. They have the only OEM strategy amongst their peers and now have the most direct website. If you have not visited the website, you should. I was personally instrumental in getting the company to actually create a working website only a few years ago, and at that time they had almost no PR at all. The company is a vastly different entity now.

    That's about it. Good luck all.

  • Reply to

    Q2 2014 Renesola Overview

    by garry9819 Aug 14, 2014 9:31 AM
    garry9819 garry9819 Aug 14, 2014 10:07 AM Flag

    With regard to other revenue streams from their new products, I have not directly asked for the figures, however, I believe that they did reiterate figures in the range of the tens of millions at the last CC for this year, though I suspect even that is a very tenuous figure. They are no doubt seeking the various required certifications for each product globally. Their website is excellent and even provides insight into these new markets so that you can understand their rationale behind choosing these products. That is again a first amongst its peers. I would guess that Renesola will begin separating out revenue streams as soon as revenues increase perhaps during 2015.

  • Reply to

    Q2 2014 Renesola Overview

    by garry9819 Aug 14, 2014 9:31 AM
    garry9819 garry9819 Aug 14, 2014 9:59 AM Flag

    Thanks, you are very welcome.

  • Reply to

    Q2 2014 Renesola Overview

    by garry9819 Aug 14, 2014 9:31 AM
    garry9819 garry9819 Aug 14, 2014 9:40 AM Flag

    In terms of the recent earnings, they were actually an upside surprise for most watching. Yes, a small revenue miss but a very strong EPS hit. Yes, other companies such as CSIQ did astoundingly well, but then they have not catered for either expansion in product range or been attempting to cater for the US duties. Though it seems that CSIQ is the first peer to be considering tackling the issue by building manufacturing plants abroad. That is, of course, a much higher risk (Capex exposure) than Renesola has so far considered.

    As Solarizer has mentioned, for those wishing to predict Renesola's price, you are up against too much manipulation to make a lot of sense in all this. The short interest is massive whilst the weight of retail buyers is minimal. The finance institutions can effectively set a price, and are doing so as has been clearly witnessed over the last 2 days, and those prices are obviously in-line with the short positions. Hoping for the regulators to step in is unrealistic.

    In other words, as has been said, if you understand the viewpoint of Renesola's management in addressing the world solar market in its entirety and even expanding out into the wider green industry, then that is the investment you make when taking a long position in Renesola. If you are more conservative, and believe that manufacturing will win out over everything and do not like the expansion into other markets, then there are many other companies worthy of investment.

    For Renesola, for Q3, Q4 and 2015 we should be expecting an increase in profits and that to expand as they take on more US module share as the duties kick in in H2. No other company has catered for the impact other than to raise prices, so that should give Renesola that advantage. In terms of Chinese supply, they are already at a cost of 51-52cents and should China's ASP move to a more reasonable 60cents or so after the introduction of Chinese incentives, then Renesola may well sell more to China. TBC

  • As many of you have witenessed, watching the solar industry over the last 5 years, a lot has changed. Many Chinese, European and US rivals have ceased to be whilst the common theme has always been the way in which these stocks are 'played' by the financial institutions, their media outlets and their analysts. Most of you will understand what I am getting at.

    Now, with Renesola, this has always been a company unafraid to try new things. Only a few years ago, Renesola was just a wafer company and proud of that fact, until companies such as GCL and LDK made that outlook bleak. It is sobering to note that Renesola has, on all counts, beaten its solar peers in terms of module sales expansion (due to Renesola's recent intervention), vertical integration (poly) as well as product range (LED, storage, inverters etc).

    The company now has the complete range of PV manufacturing, from polysilicon right through to inverters and storage. It has also begun to get into the LED market as well as others, and that is selling direct through their website. No other solar has done any of these things and no other solar started from such a small base as Renesola. Yes, the company has had its moments, but it should not be forgotten that it also has far more to offer than the market is giving it credit for. It is also the only company catering for US (amongst other) duties although CSIQ is now talking about going further and actually building factories abroad (at a higher risk than the way Renesola is doing it).

    We will see how things progress through 2015, though Renesola is well placed under all scenarios and it will be especially interesting to see how its other products begin to perform, such as LED lighting, micro-inverters and some of their other products such as the solar pump controllers for off-mains water supply and so on.

    TBC

SOL
2.485+0.025(+1.02%)11:52 AMEDT

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.