Molycorp had potential however due to lack of transparency, debt load and misguidance this company looks more and more like a bankruptcy candidate.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Sorry Motley, I too have lost quite a bit. I purchased at $11.20 and sold at $9.45. that was back several months ago. I've not gone back in but watch to see this poor company get hit. best of luck.
A feel terrible for those who have invested in Molycorp over the past year. I once had thousands of shares in the company. At this point, the company's balance sheet is under water with a market cap of $877 Million and outstanding debts of over 1 billion. A very sad day indeed. If this continues, which it looks to do so, Molycorp with be forced into bankruptcy.
I'm not short on Molycorp. I have lost money on this company however. During the rare earth bubble, they did engage in a lot of debt. Don't take my word for it, scour the internet, you'll find plenty or reports and articles. I am hoping Moly pulls through. I would like to invest in them again, one day. At the moment, senior management is not doing a good job of leading the company.
We all knew it was going to make new 52 week lows. America needs a strong rare earth company, unfortunately the leadership of Molycorp is questionable and symptoms of fiscal and legal negligence has become obvious. Molycorp's debts are too burdensome for a buyout. With a Market Capitalization under 1 billion, their debt ratio is .999. They are in debt one dollar for every dollar of equity, including "good will" which does not bode well. In fact , they have no more cushion left in the event of a bad situation. Example: if you're maxed out on your credit cards and have a car accident, it could unfortunately mean bankruptcy. I sure hope not, I'm just trying to be sober and realistic about their fiscal well-being.
I will continue to monitor Molycorp's progress however it seems to be moving toward new lows due to market sector head-winds, pending SEC resolution, competition, lower rare earth values in the current quarter and not enough inflationary pressures for the raw materials. In the long-term Moly could become a stronger company providing they make it through this very tenuous period. It could also go the other way and that would truly be unfortunate for America. My fingers crossed.
Typically companies bury bad news by releasing quarterly reports on Friday, many times Friday at the close of the market. When a company has good news to share, they typically post this information toward the beginning of the week to allow the news to raise the share price. Google this trend, these are not my words nor opinions, there is a precedence. run the search, you will see reviews on strategic quarterly report dates. I would not buy until I hear the report as there is still downward pressure for the next several weeks. MCP could go to $5. If it does and the report is positive, I would consider buying. If the report is tenuous at best, then I would stay away from this company. I'm on the fence.
I was long MCP once, perhaps I will again with it goes to $5.
There is tremendous potential is the Gov. or buyer company steps in.
For now, I sit on the side-lines and watch. Earning Report should give indications.
Here is a list of things to consider.
*** Warning: there is a strong short outlook for this equity.
*** It is not for the weak of heart nor for leveraged long positions. (shorts will prevail, short term)
1. MCP is the largest rare earth provider in the US
2. Go to Google Maps and review the satellite image of the California Mountain Pass mine
67750 Bailey Rd Mountain Pass, CA 92366
3. MCP is going to release new shares and "borrow-share notes" to Morgan Stanley and Goldman
4. Investment banks would not carry MCP shares into bankruptcy
5. The short thesis has been correct for the past nine months, it may continue...
6. SEC investigation is pending without media information on the direction of the outcome + or -
7. The earning report is set for Feb 18th (Friday) an indication of negative outcome
8. Rare earth prices have head-winds so this is across the entire sector
9. As a ultra long play, metal in general will be buffered against global inflation (good sign)
10. MCP's debt is over a billion (serious need of debt restructuring)
11. MCP needs stringer leadership
12. Will the US and California allow MCP to bankrupt? (with politics difficult to determine)
13. Can Molycorp be purchased by a manufacturer to control supply-chain costs? Possible.
14. Will this strengthen the stock price - Yes.
This is an interesting stock to watch. I'm no longr a holder of this equity as there is too much uncertainty.
It will certainly be an interesting show; either it will end like Enron (bad) or Walmart (amazing).
Why is mcp performing like a penny stock. At least they chose Monday to release report which is far better than Friday. There could be hope, I won't hold my breath...
Insect, you are correct. One day this will be a penny stock unfortunately. I've lost thousands on this and see the light.
If this is true why did MCP fall over 20% without terrible news. The guidance was lowered and the floor fell right out. I would expect that kind of movement on bad SEC news or Bad QE report. MCP sneezes and falls apart. What would happen if the SEC outcome was strict? What if Q1 2013 is terrible? Will we go to $3? That's not what I'm hoping for but MCP sure isn't resilient at this moment.
JP Morgan set value at $5 yet Barron's Brendan Conway sets the price at $50 as of 1-7-13. I would like to know if I should buy MCP if it falls to $5 or $7. Will it slowly grind back to $15 in nine months? This stock has quite a few conflicting analysts reports. It fell hard on Friday over 20% so I'm not sure if this equity will be running up to $20 real soon. It may get there over a year. However, if management runs the company into the ground perhaps MCP could go to $4, it all very strange. Yes, I've look at NAV, it's balance sheets, I've ready over 30 conflicting reports and articles. The industry has a lot of head winds too, that isn't helping. If MCP has buyer, that's a whole other conversation. ;-)
So this company will not be bought? There is absolutely no equity in their mineral rights contract certificates? No value in their land holdings, real estate, offices, office equipment, mining equipment, rare earth accounts with current vendors? Is MCP worth 'zero'? I'm not trying to be rhetorical or contraction, I am just looking for your bottom line for this company. If you had to place a value on this stock with all current market head-winds and SEC issue, what would the PPS be? $5? $2? Is MCP really worth zero? Do they have that much in liabilities? JP Morgan is very bearish against MCP and they've lowered their valuation from $8 to $5, at least that's a number. Do you agree with JPM? Just asking (seriously).
Jeff if you were to buy, what price would it be? $5 sounds good if the news is terrible with SEC fines. In the long run (1 - 2 years out) if they expel all poor management and found a boy-out suitor, this company has potential as America needs an in-house solution to raw manufacturing materials.
Your serious sober thoughts?
Some say bankruptcy some say $15 pps. I don't believe either. How could mcp go BK when they hold facilities, mineral rights certificates, tonnage of the actual RE. The have equity items. However, how could they jump to 15 without a buyer. I don see a buyer for miles.