Yes I know there is varying degrees of potential positive results. But base case of exceeding endpoint expectations. Any guesses as to what the one-time payment would be from Pfizer? Its been mentioned as "undisclosed". My guess here is $5 on a moderate beat and $10 on blowout results. Of course based on the Pfizer response in the 75 day window these prices can go up or down quickly. I think downside on a miss of the endpoints is around cash value, so like $1. I think the chance of a miss is a fraction of the chance of achieving the endpoints. The miss of the Asonep has the market spooked along with the delayed response of the Lpathamob NDA application re-submission. Kind of silly given the potential reward that this company is trading at like $25M net cash. If it plays out perfectly with great results for iSonep and the Lpathamob phase 1 can be cleared to start and Pfizer exercises its option or sells it to another respectable company and Lpathamob initiates new testing for with less stringent parameters covering a very specific subset of cancers where it it is proved effective then this can be a billion dollar company or about $40 a share. For a 20:1 payout it doesn't seem all that far fetched for all of this to happen.
Seems kind of compelling value given the net profitability, growth, customer pipeline and competitive market position. Could also be a strategic acquisition.
So there is this overhang about a shelf registration of 100M shares and the 25M to be sold by existing shareholders, but really whats the odds of these being exercised anywhere near this price level? If they weren't exercised at $2+, why would they be exercised here?