ultra, I never said I agreed with arnold re his debt for equity swap, because I think he's wrong about that. I just said that I thought Moelis would come up with some reorg that none of us thought of and prove that we were all amateurs which is what arnold has been calling all of us. I thought you might recognize the smiley face. "Inside every head is a different world." Most people tend to think in extremes and extremes rarely happen. We often get recessions, but rarely get depressions, etc. In the political world all we read about are the extreme consequences of Brexit and what would happen if Trump or Clinton win the election. The answer is. not much. Nothing catastrophic will happen. Europe will ease the UK gently out of the EU and Congress will control both Trump or Clinton.
So, lets all sit back and be patient and see what Moelis comes up with. I'm optimistic.
Let's look at the plus side.
The stock has rebounded from 11 to 40 and the 2018's from less than 15 to 70.
Copper, gold and moly seem to be headed up..
Some of you guys are really impatient. Give Moelis some time. I'm betting they pull something out of the hat that will surprise everyone and make you all look like the amateurs that arnold says you are. :-)
1929? My dad remembered it. He was 20 years old and studying pre-med out of town at Univ of Wisconsin. His family was wealthy making embroidered doilies on highly specialized automated Swiss machines. Their business collapsed overnight and he had to return to live at home in New Jersey, and go to Columbia Univ where he switched to pharmacy which was only a two year course. The family didn't return to prosperity until WWII when those machines were turned back on to embroider military insignias, chevrons, etc. During the lean years he was fortunate to be able to work two full time jobs and supported three families with food.
Carl, I agree. Well put. Moelis and BMO ain't exactly virgins in putting together deals. None of us know squat. I'm more thany happy they're on the job.
For many years I've shadowed the buys of only one guru, George Soros, with very good results.
If he says buy gold, I'm buying gold. (ABX and GLD)
(But, I'm not going to short SPY with options like he did.)
P.S. I liked today's increase in TC volume. Although it's still no big deal, it's the first time it's showed any life in a long time.
I don't think marcellus is being negative. It sounds to me that he's trying to inject a more realism in the argument to offset the sometimes extreme optimism.
utra, isn't that a zero sum game wherein if Sumitomo didn't take product from Sierra Gorda, even for stockpiling purposes, they would buy it on the world market?
foggie, I'm 100% with you on this. With the market booming this morning and TC motionless, whatever they're doing has either got to be the best kept secret since the Manhattan Project, or nothing is in the pipeline.
I'm guessing the latter, because you can't keep this a secret.
My wife and I had cataract surgery in both eyes many years ago. We had the choice of "free" fixed lenses in both eyes via Medicare, or pay about $1500/lens for the variable lenses. She went for the former with a short range lens in one eye and a long distance lens in the other. (That's standard procedure.) I went for the variable lenses in both eyes. Both worked well for us, although I can't tell if one is better than the other. I suggest you research it online before deciding. Good luck.
Food for thought. If there was no oil in the Middle East, would there be a single Westerner, other than archaeologists, living or working there?
Good post hansy, especially about the isotope business. I've been saying for a long time that I wasn't happy with their investing capital in a business, that if viable, would have been acquired a by a bigger company a long time ago. You can hardly be smaller than PESI. I originally invested in PESI because of its nuclear waste clean up potential. They should be tfocusing on that.. If they somehow luck out on the isotope business, great, but I would rather see them using outside financing for that, which they now appear to be doing,
I'll get off my pessimistic pony for awhile and throw out an optimistic thought. Why would management lay out all that cash for the secondary crusher instead of using it to buy the unsecured debt? To me, that signals their intention to continue operating MM at a higher efficiency. You normally don't invest in improvements if you plan to sell out. They may stream, sell or JV a part of it, but I don't think they'll sell it all.
As far a Moelis is concerned, they'll be offering alternative solutions to the BOD with recommendations. Contrary to what many of you think, management and the BOD are not dummies. They are sitting there because of their expertise. They all have reputations and are not going to throw that away by making a bad deal. Ditto for Moelis.
Caveat: Outside of their reputations, they don't have much skin in the game
arnold I have thought of that and agree with you. Fortunately I bought enough of the 2018's at 15 so if they are eventually redeemed at par, and if TC is taken out at 40 cents, I break even. I even made a few bucks on the secured which I bought at 64 and sold at 94, but just enough to lower my common share cost by 1.2 cents. That was intended to be funny. Make that sad funny.
The common is continuing to trade weakly (along with the other mining and O&G stocks).
It's still early in the day, but the trading to date doesn't look encouraging. There's obviously no stampede to buy TC.
Or, for that matter, to sell it either.