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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

gatr55 145 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 30, 2015 7:20 PM Member since: Feb 6, 1999
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  • gatr55 gatr55 Aug 30, 2015 7:20 PM Flag

    Nice little Cu rebound from $2.25 to $2.3465. Let's hope it keeps going.

  • Reply to

    Like the sector but getting to much weight in TC

    by larrry46 Aug 27, 2015 11:28 AM
    gatr55 gatr55 Aug 27, 2015 6:12 PM Flag

    Re TCK, I wasn't sure what they did, but I did a Buy/Write yesterday and bought the shares for $5.59 and sold a $5 Sept option for 90 cents. Glad the stock went up, didn't want to own it. I wouldn't mind if the guy exercised the option asap. He can sell it for $2.

  • Reply to

    It is not appropriate to call ultra a "fraud"

    by arnoldboils Aug 24, 2015 10:10 AM
    gatr55 gatr55 Aug 24, 2015 10:26 AM Flag

    Arnold, your jealousy is showing and it's not pretty. I don't care whether or not you are Bernie or if you have any other aliases and I dislike the way others continually to attack you. It;s cowardly.Your best defense is to ignore them. If you have something to contribute, either positively or negatively, I'd like to hear it. But please do it with facts and not emotion. You might gain respect.
    Ultra doesn't have other ID's, he doesn't need them. His posts contain information about the mining industry that only reg and one or two others have. The problem isn't ultra or any one else on this thread. It's the price of copper and gold, and until copper recovers, TC will have to keep treading water long enough to survive.

  • Reply to

    Copper Prices

    by brianchesnutt Aug 20, 2015 11:13 PM
    gatr55 gatr55 Aug 23, 2015 11:14 AM Flag

    Thanks for the moly tutorial. Great stuff.
    I've electroplated tons of copper over the years dating back to the old cyanide days before we switched to acid copper solutions. (I almost accidentally cyanide gassed 60 people, but that's a "Do" off topic story.)

  • gatr55 gatr55 Aug 19, 2015 8:35 PM Flag

    I'm still trying to figure out why everyone jumped all over the chap who asked the question, "What if the price of copper falls to $2?" We're within 10% of that now. Obviously there are a lot of other variables, like production quantity and quality, marginal costs, etc., but it's still a good question, especially if you say it's for 6 months, 1 year, 2 yrs, etc.

  • Reply to

    FYI- Future pricing track record

    by theseriousinvestor Aug 18, 2015 10:01 AM
    gatr55 gatr55 Aug 18, 2015 2:49 PM Flag

    Good post. It's nice to have an adult on this thread.

  • gatr55 gatr55 Aug 17, 2015 3:21 PM Flag

    Tell more about the "idiot shorts" who shorted at $6 and may have already covered.

  • I hope there's something PESI can do with this clean-up. There are also thousands of other abandoned mines in the west that need cleaning up or to prevent further leaking into the aquifers.

  • gatr55 gatr55 Aug 15, 2015 1:21 AM Flag

    hey light, did I see that Caude dropped 25% today from 65 to 49 cents? Any explanation?
    Very low volume,

  • gatr55 gatr55 Aug 14, 2015 4:36 PM Flag

    Thanks ultra. So mt stands for metric tons, or about 2200 lbs. That reduces my interpretation of m meaning thousand tons by a factor of over 1000. All makes sense now,

  • gatr55 gatr55 Aug 14, 2015 9:58 AM Flag

    Does that mean the grade is 27%? (1.5 billion/month x 0.27 = 400 million/month)
    Also ultra uses t and T. Are they the same units?

  • Reply to

    Beware of the ultra"gang" fraud

    by arnoldboils Aug 13, 2015 2:20 PM
    gatr55 gatr55 Aug 14, 2015 9:51 AM Flag

    copperlopper. I don't pile on to arnie because it has nothing to do with TC, but when I saw the word "mocking" in your post, I instantly knew you were arnie. Not that it matters. When it comes to multiple ID's for arnie or anyone else, I'm neither for nor against apathy.

  • gatr55 gatr55 Aug 14, 2015 9:28 AM Flag

    "730mt per month since they started up their moly circuit. They appear to be behind the cure regarding any 40mm lb. target."

    Ultra, I obviously don't understand your nomenclature for this.
    I'm pretty sure m means thousands and mm means millions, but t has to be something other than tons because the total comes out to about 1.5 billion pounds/month and 17 billion lbs for the year, both way more than the 400 million pound target.

  • The leader being oil. Someone once said that copper and oil had a weak correlation. That may be so during normal times, but I think that in this abnormal China panic, as the price of oil decreases supposedly because supply is exceeding demand, the analysts are all finger pointing at China, and the consensus thinking is, if China's demand falls off for oil, it will also fall off for the rest of the industrial materials like iron, copper, aluminum, etc.
    So for he short term, the consensus thinking is that copper demand is less than supply.
    But, in the longer term, if the copper supply shrinks enough and the demand can stay just "strong enough" we could get a sharp rally in the copper price. But short term, oil is going to be an anchor dragging down TC and other industrial commodities. And I'm afraid it will get even worse.

  • Reply to

    China 'Calls'

    by tmguven Aug 13, 2015 3:20 AM
    gatr55 gatr55 Aug 13, 2015 9:19 AM Flag

    Maybe Bernie's got it right.

  • Reply to

    why tc is not hedging its production?

    by ganlinxin Aug 11, 2015 11:56 AM
    gatr55 gatr55 Aug 12, 2015 11:16 AM Flag

    tm I know you were talking futures. I was just using options as an example.
    The problem is that the futures prices in oil and gas are perceived to be too low and producers don't want to lock in what they think are bottom pricing. I think the metal producers are looking at a similar situation.
    Check out an article in the WSJ dated Aug 10 by Nicole Friedman, "Oil Futures Signal Weak Prices that Could Last Years." This is an excerpt.
    "For many producers, such as Diamondback Energy Inc. and Marathon Oil Corp., later-dated contracts are now too cheap to justify locking in prices. That means producers are likely to enter 2016 with fewer price hedges on the books than usual, if they have any at all.

    Companies without price protection in 2016 could be forced to cut back further on new drilling if prices remain below their break-even costs.

    “I think it’s a fair assessment that just about nobody is putting on hedges at this point,” said Jason Wangler, an analyst at Wunderlich Securities. “Why lock in the bottom?”

  • Reply to

    Down 10% Pre-market

    by switch_1995 Aug 12, 2015 8:29 AM
    gatr55 gatr55 Aug 12, 2015 11:01 AM Flag

    tm that was an excellent post.
    Every single employee in every company has non-public information because they know exactly how the company is doing by dozens of indicators. For instance, in one of my small companies, every time we have a new all time record revenue month we give $100 Target gift cards to all employees (and stock holders). When they get gift cards four months in a row they know the company is doing well.They also know by the increased overtime, the addition of more and more contract laborers, increase in property and production lines, the pace of activity, etc. If we were a public company, you can bet that anyone who knew what the stock market was would be buying like crazy.
    The bottom line is that every employee in every company is in possession of non-public information and to imply otherwise is nonsense.

  • Reply to

    why tc is not hedging its production?

    by ganlinxin Aug 11, 2015 11:56 AM
    gatr55 gatr55 Aug 12, 2015 10:36 AM Flag

    tm, I make a business of selling stock options via Buy/Writes. The higher the volatility the bigger the premium. You can't make money by trading GE or any other stable company. You have to go to the higher volatility small companies like TC where you get 10X the premium. But, you can't go way out on the volatility extreme to companies like Tesla (does that make you happy Clancy) where the premiums are even larger, but your risk of price variability is too high.
    According to an article a few days ago in the WSJ, because of the huge volatility in the commodities metals and energy markets, the premiums have become too expensive for the perceived risk so many companies have in essence decided to "self insure" by going naked or almost naked.
    A lot of people in California do not buy Earthquake insurance for that same reason. The premiums are very high and the "perceived" risk is low. (The insurance people know the real risk, but the public's perceived risk is much lower.)

  • Reply to

    why tc is not hedging its production?

    by ganlinxin Aug 11, 2015 11:56 AM
    gatr55 gatr55 Aug 11, 2015 5:10 PM Flag

    TC isn't hedging along with most of the oil and NG producers. That's because the cost of the hedges is far too expensive. So they're all going naked in expectation of same or higher prices. Question, would you pay $1000 for casualty insurance for a 12 month period if your car was only blue booked at $12,000? When the insurance only cost $200 you might have considered it reasonable. Check the copper future rates.

  • Reply to

    Mine slag spill

    by switch_1995 Aug 11, 2015 6:26 AM
    gatr55 gatr55 Aug 11, 2015 9:37 AM Flag

    Like I said, when it comes to EPA I'm your man. They do this kind of #$%$ all the time. They did a similar thing in Los Angeles to one of my plating plants. They were warned (in writing) by engineers, hydrologists and lawyers not to drill a test well below 60 feet because there was a clay barrier between the contaminated level and a drinking aquifer 300 feet further down. You guessed it. They wanted to see if the drinking water was contaminated, so they punched through the layer and subsequently had to close down over a dozen private and municipal water companies. Those guys made the Three Stooges look smart.

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