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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

gcmorgan_98 6 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 18, 2014 4:13 PM Member since: Jan 18, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Next Divi

    by gcmorgan_98 Sep 18, 2014 12:35 PM
    gcmorgan_98 gcmorgan_98 Sep 18, 2014 4:13 PM Flag

    You got it right. My prediction is off and now we have to wait six weeks to find out where my logic went wrong.

  • gcmorgan_98 by gcmorgan_98 Sep 18, 2014 12:35 PM Flag

    I am confused by the drop of the Stock price. My estimate of the next divi is .35. The earnings of the first quarter did not include all of the savings that will be realized from reducing their swap position. I estimate another 5 cents per share gain in income. Also they increased their mbs position during the quarter that also should add a 2 cents to the income statement.

    We will know shortly.

  • Reply to

    Interest Rate Risk

    by avebb90 Sep 12, 2014 9:03 AM
    gcmorgan_98 gcmorgan_98 Sep 12, 2014 11:02 AM Flag

    Agree 100%. Book value may go down about forty cents, but that is all non cash. The big factor is the two percent spread they are making on new mbs purchases. I expect a divi of .35 this quarter and a rise in the sp to around 12.5

  • gcmorgan_98 by gcmorgan_98 Aug 12, 2014 10:34 AM Flag

    Boy was that a snooze.... A few minutes of recap by Matt and two questions.

  • Reply to

    10 year treasury and book value

    by owens132000 Aug 8, 2014 11:11 AM
    gcmorgan_98 gcmorgan_98 Aug 8, 2014 4:38 PM Flag

    The reduced hedge book alone will save about 45 million from 2nd quarter numbers. Combine that with the additional 5 billion of mbs, I would expect earnings of 36 to 38 cents per share. The dividend will be very close to that.

    Note that premium amortization was 150 million last quarter. With a CPR of 7, I would expect the number to be a little lower. I think the disposal of 6 billion of mbs during the quarter jacks this expense up. Any mbs pros out there that ca comment on this??

  • Great numbers, cleaned up the hedge book, all the while barely increasing leverage.
    Third quarter numbers have .35 to .37 locked in. The cost of hedges will go from 220 million to 175 million assuming no further additions. That alone takes income up to .35. With the book of mbs going up another 5 billion, look for an additional 2 to 3 cents per share.

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