However, millions of ALU shareholders led by Hedge Funds and institutions are saying NO to the Tender Offers. There are many who believe ALU was given away to NOK (a-dying-Finish-company) to appease Finland (a non-NATO EU country) as a political gesture at the expense of ALU shareholders. This was likely the reason for Hollande's involvement. The geopolitic moves by NATO and the West were meant to counter and isolate Russia further by rewarding Finland for coming aboard. But, at the end of the day, regardless of the politics ALU shareholders have the final say, and it's a "NO".
JNPR had a blowout quarter of beating earning estimates by 32.5% while F5 Networks also had a blowout quarter yesterday of beating both revenue and earning. I will expect ALU to perform just as well beating the estimates with its strong high margin IP businesses. But, unfortunately share price will suffer and will get dragged down (again) by the NOK shackle. The only way ALU share price will recover and to be valued highly again by the market is for shareholders to vote NO to the NOK's Tender Offers and break this shackle.
Who the HE%% wants to be tied to a dying company like you-know-what, thanks to our self-serving ($10M commission) CEO who has already jumped off ship himself. I bet most ALU shareholders are waiting to jump off at a lowered revise target and will no longer invest in ALU if this deal go through.
I've been around since 2009 exposing pumping shysters like you. If you have read my postings from 2009 you will learn that I've been slamming idiots like you from companies after company and they were all afraid of what I might say next.
Josh is just a pumping shyster who has no understanding of the company he's hyping. To invest in a technology company you really have to understand the type of technology the company produces and this is why Josh never talks about any technical shortfalls of Nokia's products because if he did I would have easily exposed him as the fake he is.
And, the same J.P. Morgan’s Sandeep Deshpande raised his rating on the shares to Overweight from Neutral, writing that the company’s turn-around effort is moving along faster than he had expected.
"The routing equipment market, where the company competes with Cisco Systems (CSCO), Juniper Networks (JNPR), and with China’s privately held Huawei, may be worth more than the entire company, he opines. It is on track to boost margins, he notes:
The “Core” networking business unit of Alcatel Lucent is the crown jewel of the company and if it were a standalone business, we think it could be worth more than the total value of the entire company. As part of the Shift plan, Alcatel-Lucent has guided to 12.5% margin in this business with revenue #$%$7bn in 2015. At this time, whether the revenue run rate will be reached in ’15 is uncertain but with the segment reporting 7.1% margin in the seasonally weak 1Q, this indicates that the business is on track to report 12.5% margin in ’15. In particular within core networking, Routing is the most significantly profitable segment for Alcatel-Lucent."
And, you were saying?
Well, you have to think in terms of spectrum as being the last-mile delivery pipeline. Sure, if there is only 1 user using the pipe it may be able to download a full-HD video in just few seconds. But, in live network where hundreds or perhaps over a thousand of simultaneous users sharing the same pipe and competing for the limited resource.
In such scenario, the network operator will have to prioritize certain types of traffic such as Voice as with the upcoming VoLTE through the implementation of QoS or CoS (Class-of-Service) a.k.a anti-net-neutrality. Besides, the TDD is notoriously known to have less spectral efficiency than its cousin FDD, perhaps at 6 bits/hz vs FDD 8 bits. Then, you have to factor in the type of environment and channel condition that it will be operating under, meaning indoors or outdoors where a higher integrity transmission of QPSK would be preferred than the higher data-rate transmission of 64-QAM modulation for the UE (user equipment), meaning small cells (higher density) won't make much of a difference even with spectrum reuse.
It means nothing until ALU is out of this NOK's shackle, thanks to Combes' departing gift to shareholders. This is why ALU shareholders will be overwhemingly rejecting Combes' departing gift (Tender Offers). Imagine if Combes didn't tie up ALU's hands with NOK? Given that ALU had a better than expected Q1 earning in addition to its recent billion dollar+ contracts with Chinese carriers, and now with this huge Australian contracts this means ALU would have been in the $5.50 range by now instead of being in locksteps with NOK's fate.
In my humble opinion.
Don't forget the enormous amount of data at Google's disposal from years of its research that NOK has "no" access to, which could inevitably price the market value of HERE at the low end because anyone can build a databank for navigation mapping but the industry requires more than that.
For a product that provides driverless cars it will require enormous amount of data in human behavior, pattern recognition analysis, and artificial intelligence besides just radars. This is the main reason I think Google Research would be the only contender in the driverless auto market in the future, meaning the pricing of HERE would be limited because the acquirer (auto industry) will still have to spend enormous amount of capitals to catch up to Google's research in this endeavor.
Let's get one thing clear, it doesn't matter even if both Francois Hollande and Jean-Claude Juncker personally gave their blessing or even if it was approved by 100% of NOK shareholders. At the end of the day, the only approval that matters is by ALU shareholders and so far it does seem that majority of ALU shareholders are overwhemingly rejecting this deal and won't be accepting any Tender Offers.
So, go ahead and keep on pumping!
"The stock is only worth what Nokia is paying for it."
The fact is, ALU has earned higher revenues than NOK in the last few years which means ALU brings in more businesses.
ALU Past Revenue:
NOK Past Revenue:
The trend suggests that ALU's revenues will climb at even faster rate than NOK purely based on the declining cyclical wireless businesses globally where NOK is heavily depended on. Remember, wireless business is based on a "Boom and a Bust" cycle at every 10-year because once a carrier put out its network there will be no more capital spending other than maintenance until its investments have been fully recovered while reaping rewards.
With the recent massive contracts from Chinese carriers ($1.2B+) on ALU IP Core together with the overall declining of wireless business globally NOK's revenues will shrink even faster. The disparity in revenues between ALU and NOK will become even greater given that NOK is a 1-trick pony.
NOK brings nothing to the table in this lopsided ALU/NOK deal other than the remnant of the windfall NOK received from its MSFT's deal. Why do you think Odey, Elliot and others have suddenly come out of the woodwork so publicly? Perhaps, they smell blood and directing their messages to ALU shareholders that shareholders have the backing of institutions to freely decline the NOK's Tender Offers and all it takes is 50%.
["ALU board of director and CEO approved the deal and also French government and NOK board of directors, waiting for NOK stockholders to vote in the near future. Don't even think that Nokia shareholder will not approve the deal, and so will ALU"]
As it stands, this lopsided deal is not going to go through with ALU's shareholders because the deal only benefits Combes and his closest minions. Did you noticed Combes has already jumped ship because he knows he will be fired either way?
At the end of the day, ALU is a public company so regardless of NOK's shareholders' vote and the French government's endorsement ALU shareholders will have the last word on the tender offer and it's a big "NO".
"What would be the reason you don't like the deal?"
Any idiot can see that ALU is worth much more than NOK's dying business. It's funny how no one has official placed a bid on HERE to my knowedge. I guess HERE is an irrelevant legacy product, that's about to be shelved by the likes of Google Android Auto and Apple CarPlay.
Over at NOK's board many idiots are banking on Sprint's business prospects for NOK. Little do they know that Sprint is about to run out of cash of its own in the near future according to analysts, which is why Sprint's stock has been crashing lately.
The only way millions of ALU shareholders would agree to this lopsided ALU/NOK deal is when the exchange is based on 1 ALU share for 1 NOK share (1:1 exchange) or 0.55 NOK + $3B cash.
It does seem Zacks is using the same reasoning in every quarter to downgrade ALU just before earnings which says a lot about Zacks' motive. Zacks has downgraded ALU because of Q1 even though ALU had a good Q1 reporting.
“Alcatel Lucent reported a loss in first quarter, primarily due to a decline in spending in the North American market along with a higher income tax rate and rise in cost of sales.
i guess Zacks is unaware of Cisco, Avaya, and Ericsson didn't get massive contracts from Chinese carriers recently.
"Also, the company continues to face stiff competition from key players like Avaya, Cisco Systems and Ericsson."
Zacks is also stating that customer concentration issue such as tier-1 carriers eg. T, VZ, etc., but that kind of reasoning also applies to all tier-1 suppliers.
"Moreover, customer concentration and heavy dependency on a handful of customers continue to remain one of the major concerns for the company, going forward."
Contrary to what Zacks is claiming with lower EURO ALU should get higher returns and more businesses from US customers paying in USD.
" Finally, currency translation risks and volatility in global macroeconomic conditions, especially reduction in consumer spending, adds to the company’s woes."
One should question about Zacks real motive just before earnings.
Tell me, what are the positive catalysts for buying NOK because I cannot see any? Remember, NOK is a 1-trick pony that's fading fast and becoming old and irrelevant. The wireless market is a dying industry with a boom in every 10 years.The only product that NOK is good at is selling new shares to suckers. That is why come h-ll or high water NOK wants ALU for its survival but they ain't going to get it.
In my humble opinion.
It would seem NOK started its decline when Odey, Elliot, and others have come out of the woodwork because they see huge value in ALU to the underserving NOK the Cling-on. The declining price is perfectly understandable given there was a suggestion that Elliot's move may be to dump NOK in favor of ALU.
So, your reasoning is that without NOK China contracts would have gone to Cisco, right? Huh, nice to know!
It would seem ALU has now outpaced NOK's entire year revenue by quite a margin. In such circumstance I would doubt very much that NOK can get away with a mere 0.55 share exchange rate. NOK is a decining company with a dismal outlook outside of wireless together with its declining earnings and revenues. I can see more and more hedge fund operators ganging up on NOK against the merger deal because they smell blood.
The bottom feeder, NOK, is brazenly clinging on to ALU as if there is no tomorrow for them. Perhaps, there is no tomorrow for NOK since ALU shareholders will be spitting on their tender-offers.